By Thomas Chambers
Ah, the week before Derby Week.
It’s well known that much of the wagering handle is generated by bettors who may bet only one day a year – this one. They may be known as stupid money, chumps, amateurs, civilians, or girls, but I’ll also bet you’ve heard of one of them making a decent Derby score at some point, probably the same year you got skunked.
Pete the Bartender had Giacomo in 2005 and still talks about it, as is his right. He liked the story of how Giacomo was named after the son of Gordon Matthew Thomas Sumner, better known as Sting, by his owner (Giacomo’s, not Sting’s), A&M Records co-founder Jerry Moss. At 50-1, Giacomo paid the second highest in Derby history and highest since 1913. I’ve read a few things lately showing statistics, trends, standards of excellence and tendencies of Derby winners and a lot of them include the words “except Giacomo.” But Pete had him and I didn’t.
As the next eight days unfold, more and more people with merely just an inkling there even is a race will start figuring out who they like and start talking about it. Just like a cable news-ish story treatment loaded with punditry, you’ll start hearing the names of Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Friesan Fire, Dunkirk. Trainer Tom McCarthy, who only trains the one horse, General Quarters. Your wiseguy horses might be Win Willy, Musket Man or, mildly, Papa Clem. We will be spared the buffoonery of Tricky Dicky Dutrow, and we’ll also get to watch equestrian correspondent Jeanine Edwards do her thing on ESPN – that’s a win-win.
I firmly believe that there is so much information and analysis that even pundits like Mike Watchmaker, Dick Jerardi, Steve Haskin, Andrew Beyer, Randy Moss, Jeremy Plonk, the curious Hammerin’ Hank Goldberg and dozens of others get nearly bowled over and they all end up picking from the same group of five horses to finish in the money in every mathematical permutation possible.
I always remind myself that this a pretty ridiculous race, with 20 starters, more a stampede than a nicely developed 10 furlongs. And what if it rains? How will some of these pampered equines react to buckets of mud being slung in their long faces (go to the 4:20 mark), something they have never experienced before in their delicate preparations by humans seeking glory? The best horse in the race can get bottled up and maybe have to swing wide and actually run more than the mile and a quarter. And most of these horses have never run 10 furlongs and never will again.
I vow each year to keep it simple, not try to cover every wagering possibility in the race. Because it is the amateurs who help bestow upon these horses the kinds of odds that make you second-guess yourself either way: Shoulda had that 22-1 winner. Or had the 18-1 winner, why in the hell didn’t I bet more? The payout is usually there to be had, thanks to them. We broken down horseplayers are supposed to be able to see it all clearly and hit the mark.
Trifecta seems out of the question, but you can structure a tri that won’t cost too much if you wheel. Exacta? Do a four-or five-horse box and watch a plausible but tossed horse just get up for second, seven lengths behind the winner. No, I’m going to concentrate first on who’s going to win the race and then try to identify a couple of longshots. Any exotic bets will be made small with the idea they won’t hit, the better to quell the disappointment. Post positions will be somewhat important. We’ll know those next Wednesday. I’ll go back to my column notes, for this has helped me watch the Derby Trail much closer than in previous years. I’ll lean toward dirt horses and the ones who have shown heart. I might look at the Tampa and Oaklawn guys. Assessing the Dubai shippers will be more difficult. Some of the jockeys will enter into it, for good and bad.
The folks at Len Ragozin’s The Sheets, the premium speed analysis service, will be holding a seminar in New York and they’ll make the audio available Friday – thank you World Wide Web! Obviously, the online racing press will be monitored closely, my favorite forum will get plenty of attention, I’ll see if TVG will be covering the workouts, albeit in their jumbled, poorly scheduled manner. I’ll pretty much miss Derby Friday and the Kentucky Oaks, unfortunately, because it, too, is a big day (also including the Louisville Distaff Breeders’ Cup (GII), Alysheba Stakes (GIII), Crown Royal American Turf Stakes (GIII Turf), Aegon Turf Sprint Stakes (GIII Turf), and the Edgewood Stakes) at My Real Job, but that doesn’t mean I can’t sneak in a wager on the Oaks itself, I sure hope. But I’ll make a point of setting the TiVo to at least watch Rachel Alexandra run her magic.
I’ll also have to think about the Derby Day undercard, including the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (GI Turf), Humana Distaff (GI), the Churchill Downs (GII), Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (GII Turf) and the inaugural Eight Belles Stakes (GIII).
And, OH!, put together a rundown of the race for The Beachwood Reporter, don’t forget. I’ll be studying all week like it’s higher education or something.
And to top it off and sew it up, junior welterweights Rickey Hatton and pound-for-pound world’s greatest boxer Manny Pacquiao square off in Vegas Saturday night in what should be a great fight. What a day!
Then I’ll breathe again and start thinking about the Preakness.
I Want Revenge
Trainer Jeff Mullins received the typical racing industry love tap for administering a substance to one of his horses in the detention barn at Aqueduct on Wood Memorial day April 4. He was suspended for seven days and fined $2,500 by New York officials. Get this: In exchange for waiving his right to an appeal, the suspension was lowered from 15 days, and he doesn’t have to start serving until May 3, the day after his horse I Want Revenge is expected to be one of the favorites in the Kentucky Derby. Just about all racing jurisdictions honor such suspensions but don’t cry for Jeff. Just be happy that he feels closure.
“To put an end to this unfortunate event, I take responsibility for the infraction and accept the penalty imposed,” (Mullins) said in a statement. “I have dedicated my life to caring for thoroughbred race horses. I owe it to I Want Revenge, his owners, the racing fans, and, indeed, the entire racing industry to end this distraction now.”
Racing blogger Paul Moran is suggesting that while Air Power, the substance Mullins was using, is all natural, many feel it reacts to other legal medications like Lasix to give a horse a definite boost. So there you go.
Derby Ins & Outs
* Advice is in the Derby by virtue of a last-to-first win in the Lexington Stakes Saturday. Square Eddie made a monster move on the turn and flattened out in the stretch as Advice flew up for the win. Square Eddie didn’t need to win, he’s already got enough earnings to run May 2.
* Chris Block’s Illinois-bred Giant Oak will not run in the Derby. Seems the body’s willing but the mind doesn’t follow. Block says he’s mentally not ready, and that he may steer the horse to a turf summer, with an eye on Arlington’s Mid-America Triple: The Arlington Classic, American Derby (GII) and The Secretariat (GI). Sweep all three turf races and there’s a $500,000 bonus. The decision is appreciated by this horseplayer. He could have physically run May 2, but rather than succumb to a crippling case of Derby Fever, Oak’s connections are looking ahead. And if he really is a better turf horse, then what business would he have had in the Derby to begin with? From a wagering standpoint. So now he’s become one of my new favorite horses and I look forward to watching him develop. And there is no truth to the rumor that Rod Blagojevich reached out to Giant Oak’s owners to get the mount in the Derby and parlay it into an appearance in season two of Jockeys.
* Godolphin Stables’ Regal Ransom and Desert Party will both run the Derby after shipping in from Dubai. Sheikh Mohammed makes the attempt to train in Dubai and come in and win the Derby.
* When the music stops, jump on a horse. Top jockey Garrett Gomez will ride Pioneerof the Nile. His much-awaited decision triggered the dominoes. Edgar Prado will ride Dunkirk, choosing him over Square Eddie, and Corey Nakatani will pilot Square Eddie.
Local Favorites
* Hawthorne Race Course, which concludes its spring meet April 30, is planning a big bash for Derby Day. Billed as Chicago’s Biggest Kentucky Derby Party, Hawthorne will open the infield for live music, an outdoor barbecue and beer fest, a charity chili cook-off, and tent lounges with flat screens so fans can watch and wager on the Run for the Roses. Sounds like fun, but I can’t be in two places at once.
* Arlington Park launches its summer meet Friday, May 1. Its feature May 2 will be the $100,000 Illinois Owners Stakes. They’ll also be giving away 2,500 mint julep glasses.
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Thomas Chambers is the Beachwood’s man on the rail. He brings you TrackNotes every Friday. He welcomes your comments.
Posted on April 24, 2009