By The Beachwood Ex-Hawk Affairs Desk
The slog of the regular season is over and playoff hockey is finally here. Rejoice! Few things in sports can match the fast-paced, bordering-on-insane intensity of the annual tournament for the Holy Grail of sports trophies, Lord Stanley’s Cup. Here at Beachwood HQ, contributor Eric Pytel has been crunching numbers and spanking code to suss out the X Factor that determines who gets to take the Cup home with them for the summer.
Is goaltending the difference? A bone-crushing defense? A balanced offense? Or better coaching? Nope. None of those. It’s a little-examined but now-proven ingredient that will be familiar to Chicago sports fans in a different form, but has so far existed under the radar. It’s the Ex-Hawk Factor. Since the 2002-2003 NHL season, no Stanley Cup Champion has had more ex-Hawk players on its NHL roster than the team it defeated. You’re gonna want to call your bookie after reading this.
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In 2005-06, the championship winning Carolina Hurricanes had .5 ex-Hawks (Anton Babchuk played in 52 games, but did not play in the playoffs), while Edmonton had 2.5 ex-Hawks (Ethan Moreau/Jaroslav Spacek; Igor Ulanov played 37 games for the Oilers, but did not play in the playoffs). In 2003-04 the Tampa Bay Lightning won the Cup in 7 games narrowly defeating the Calgary Flames. The Tampa Bay Lightning had 0 ex-Hawk players; while the Calgary Flames also had 0 ex-Hawks, but were coached by a former Hawk player/coach, Darryl Sutter. In 2002-03 the New Jersey Devils won the Cup and had 0 ex-Hawks, while the runner-up Anaheim Mighty Ducks had 2 ex-Hawks (Keith Carney/Steve Thomas).
Yes, there were then two successive seasons with conflicting results: 2001-02 saw the Detroit Red Wings win the Cup with 2 ex-Hawks (Chris Chelios/Dominik Hasek) when they defeated the Carolina Hurricanes with 0 ex-Hawks. But that was an Olympic year where the Ex-Hawk Factor held true; Canada, carrying Ex-Hawk Ed Belfour and Future-Hawk Theo Fluery, defeated the United States, which was filled with once and future ex-Hawks Tony Amonte, Chris Chelios, Jeremy Roenick, Gary Suter, and Phil Housley. So the Factor was clearly stretched thin that year.
And in the 2000-01 season, the Colorado Avalanche beat the New Jersey Devils to win it all while carrying 1 ex-Hawk (Bryan Muir) to none for the Devils. The Devils, howver, had traded away ex-Hawk Chris Terreri before the playoffs, so it’s really a push.
With that incontrovertible evidence in mind, let’s take a look at the first-round matchups.
Wednesday –
EAST
#4 Ottawa Senators vs. #5 Pittsburgh Penguins
The Senators are hoping that their explosive trio of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and 50-goal sniper Dany Heatley can carry the load. The Senators have versatile defensemen like Wade Redden, Tom Preissing, Christoph Shubert, Joe Corvo, and Anton Volchenkov. In net, Ray Emery will have to succeed where prior Ottawa goalies have failed. Bryan Murray coaches the Senators and in 14 seasons he has yet to get a team past the second round. Is this the season Ottawa gets over the hump?
Ex-Hawk Factor: 1.5. Dean McAmmond and Tom Preissing, who briefly was a Hawk as part of a 3-way trade last off season.
The Penguins have the most exciting young nucleus of perhaps any team in the playoffs in Sidney “The Kid” Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and underrated Jordan Staal. All three are dynamic, skilled, and explosive. Staal can be very dangerous on the penalty kill, and Crosby and Malkin can take over games with their vision, speed, and creativity. On the blueline, Ryan Whitney and Sergei Gonchar will be expected to provide offense from the point, while Marc Andre Fleury (40 wins) will have to show he is playoff-ready. The Penguins will rely on veterans Mark Recchi and Gary Roberts to steady this young team that has a chance to surprise.
Ex-Hawk Factor: 1. Jocelyn Thibault.
Pick: Penguins in 7.
WEST
#2 Anaheim Ducks vs. #7 Minnesota Wild
Anaheim is a team with high expectations and plenty of talent to live up to those expectations. The Ducks have built a good young core around veterans Teemu Selanne, Chris Pronger, and Scott Niedermayer. In Andy McDonald, Chris Kunitz, Ryan Getlaf, Corey Perry, and Dustin Penner, the Ducks have talent to burn. Similar to Buffalo in the East, the Ducks in the West are a solid team looking to go deep in the playoffs. No other team has two No. 1 defensemen like the Ducks have in Pronger and Neidermayer. Samuel Pahlsson is an underrated defensive center who can shut down opposing forwards. In net, the Ducks have a capable tandem of goalies, but look for J-S Giguere to get the first crack; he’s playoff-tested and capable of getting hot at just the right moment. Randy Carlyle coaches this team and they play with a bit of the grit he displayed as a player. If there’s one team that could threaten the Ex-Hawk Factor, it’s this team.
Ex-Hawk Factor: 3. Kent Huskins, Travis Moen, Shawn Thornton.
The Wild win with defense and occasional scoring. Once known more for their style of play (neutral zone trap) and winning ugly, the Wild are a dangerous opponent for the Ducks. The Wild has both the goaltending and the offensive players to get the job done in a low-scoring contest. After their first two goalies succumbed to injuries, the Wild were forced to play third-stringer Niklas Backstrom. The 29-year-old surprised by leading the league in goals against average and save percentage. On offense, look for Marian Gaborik, Pavol Demitra, and Brian Rolston to provide the productivity needed to take this team deep. Jacques Lemaire, an excellent tactician and a steady presence behind the bench, is the Wild head coach.
Ex-Hawk Factor: 2. Keith Carney, Todd White.
Pick: Anaheim in 7.
#3 Vancouver Canucks vs. #6 Dallas Stars
The Canucks have a workhorse in net in Roberto Luongo. In his first postseason appearance, Luongo will look to silence the critics and add to his legion of supporters. He’s as good as it gets in the West and can easily carry a team if he gets hot. On offense the Canucks have two Swedish twins, Daniel and Henrik Sedin. They have excellent chemistry and are difficult for opposing teams to knock off the puck. The Canucks penalty kill is the best in the league and will be asked to shut down the Stars 7th-ranked power play. If Vancouver is disciplined and gets a better contribution from Markus Naslund than he provided in the regular season, look out.
Ex-Hawk Factor: 1. Bryan Smolinski
Dallas is a defense-oriented team that relies on Marty Turco to keep pucks away from the net. Special teams standouts Sergei Zubov and Philippe Boucher are dangerous point men who can score on the power play. The top scorer for the Stars was Mike Ribeiro with 59 points, but look for Mike Modano to stir the drink if the Stars have any chance at upsetting the Canucks. Turco has to prove he can perform in the playoffs as solidly as he does during the regular season. The teams split the season series 2-2, with the home team winning every game.
Ex-Hawk Factor: 3. Stephane Robidas, Jon Klemm, and the injured Matthew Barnaby.
Pick: Vancouver in 5.
#4 Nashville Predators vs. #5 San Jose Sharks
The Preds are a team with big expectations. They made the decision to trade youth for the often injured, world-class talent, Peter Forsberg. Faced with an injury to Steve Sullivan that should keep him out of the first couple games, the Predators will need Forsberg to lead them to the promised land. Paul Kariya’s team-leading 52 assists and 76 points, along with David Legwand’s team leading 27 goals, will provide the offense. Also expect solid contributions from Jason Arnott and J.P. Dumont. The Predator blueline is a talented bunch anchored by Kimmo Timonen (55 points) and a group of young defenders in Shea Weber (17 goals) and Ryan Suter. In net, the Predators have a nice problem – two capable starters in Tomas Vokun and Chris Mason. Vokun will get the first shot, but if he falters expect to see Mason get in on the action. The Predators won three of four head-to-head during the regular season.
Ex-Hawk factor: 3. J.P. Dumont, Scott Nichol, Steven Sullivan.
The Sharks, like the Ducks and Sabres, have a very deep team. There’s depth and scoring on both offense and defense. The Sharks have a tandem of goalies that is the envy of most teams in Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala. Nabokov should get the first look and will be expected to shut the door against the Predators big guns: Forsberg/Kariya. On offense, the Sharks have perennial MVP candidate Joe Thornton (92 assists, 114 points) and winger Jonathan Cheechoo (37 goals). Patrick Marleau is a capable frontline center, along with young Milan Michalek (40 assists), and both should take some of the pressure off Thornton and Cheechoo.
Ex-Hawk factor: 3. Mark Bell, Curtis Brown, Ville Niemenen.
Pick: San Jose in 7.
Thursday –
EAST
#1 Buffalo Sabres vs. #8 New York Islanders
The Sabres are coming off a franchise-setting 113-point season, including 53 wins, and are as dangerous a team as any in the playoffs. They have depth and skill at forward, good contributors on their blueline, and a 40-win goalie in Ryan Miller. The cast includes Daniel Briere, Chris Drury, Maxim Afinogenov, and Thomas Vanek. They are coached by Lindy Ruff and they are the favorites in the East.
Ex-Hawk factor: 1. Jaroslav Spacek.
The Islanders are riding a wave of momentum, after narrowly escaping disaster on Sunday and potentially missing the playoffs. They won a shootout just to get into the playoffs and were rewarded with a first-round matchup against the powerhouse Sabres. The Islanders have some spark up front with 40-goal scorer Jason Blake, as well as Ryan Smyth, Alexei Yashin, and Miroslav Satan. The real question for the Islanders is between the posts, where injured 32-win goalie Rick Dipietro means plenty of work for backup goalies Wade Dubielewicz and Mike Dunham. An interesting side story is the return of former Sabre head coach Ted Nolan, who is now behind the bench of the Islanders and will be looking to put a Sabre through the hearts of Buffalo fans everywhere.
Ex-Hawk factor: 2. Andy Hilbert, Chris Simon.
Pick: Buffalo in 4 games.
#2 New Jersey Devils vs. #7 Tampa Bay Lightning
The Devils are coming off another stellar season from the best goalie in the league, Martin Brodeur. He racked up 48 wins and 12 shutouts; both numbers led the league. The Devils recently fired their head coach in a familiar move to Devils fans, and are now being guided by their GM Lou Lamiorello (“Lou Lam”).
The Devils have talent in Zach Parise (31 goals), Patrick Elias (69 pts), and speedy winger Brian Gionta. If it’s a low-scoring series, the Devils should prevail.
Ex-Hawk Factor: 1. Jim Dowd.
The Lightning is an explosive bunch with players like Vincent Lecavlier (52 goals, 108 points), Martin St. Louis (59 assists, 102 points), and 2004 Conn Smythe winner Brad Richards (70 points). Dan Boyle patrols the blueline and is dangerous on the power play. The real question for this team is in net, where Johan Holmqvist and Marc Denis will have to rise to the occasion and perform better than they have in the regular season. If the series is a high-scoring affair, then the Lightning have a shot at pulling off the upset.
Ex-Hawk Factor: 1. Karl Stewart.
Pick: New Jersey in 6.
#3 Atlanta Thrashers vs. #6 New York Rangers
The Thrashers are making their playoff debut this year. They will get offense from Marian Hossa (43 goals, 100 points), Ilya Kovalchuk (42 goals, 76 points), and Slava Kozlov (52 assists, 80 points). Veterans Scott Mellanby and Keith Tkachuk will be relied upon for leadership. Former #1 pick overall Kari Lehtonen is getting his first chance to shine on the NHL’s biggest stage and his play will likely determine whether or not Atlanta advances deep in the playoffs.
Ex-Hawk Factor: 1. Steve McCarthy.
The Rangers are a difficult team to gauge. They have offensive talent in Jaromir Jagr (96 points) and Michael Nylander (83 points), as well as playoff veterans like Brendan Shanahan and Martin Straka. Henrik Lundqist won 37 games for the Rangers during the regular season and will have to be sharp against the Thrasher snipers or it could be a quick series. If the Rangers play disciplined and capitalize on mistakes, than this series could shift in favor of New York.
Ex-Hawk Factor: 2. Michael Nylander, Jason Strudwick.
Pick: Atlanta in 6.
WEST
#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #8 Calgary Flames
Detroit had another fine regular season with plenty of wins, offense, and solid goaltending from a rejuvenated Dominik Hasek. For the Red Wings, the real season doesn’t start until the playoffs, and after several years of first-round exits they’re hoping their fortunes turn around this time. Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are the creative collaborators who will look to get newly acquired Todd Bertuzzi and Kyle Calder involved offensively. Thomas Holmstrom is a playoff performer who likes to create havoc in the crease for opposing teams. On defense, the Red Wings have perennial Norris Trophy candidate Nicklas Lidstrom, along with Mathieu Schneider, Chris Chelios, and Brett Ledba providing support. In net, Dominik Hasek will look silence critics who say he’s too old. In prior seasons, the Red Wings were physically outmatched and beaten by lower-seeded teams.
Ex-Hawk Factor: 4. Dominik Hasek, Chris Chelios, Daniel Cleary, Kyle Calder.
Calgary comes into the regular season hoping to recapture the magic of their 2004 playoff run, which carried them past Detroit and into the Finals, only to fall short in a dramatic game 7 loss to Tampa Bay. The Flames are still coached by an Ex-Hawk, but it’s a different one, Jim Playfair (Darryl Sutter is now GM of the Flames). Jerome Iginla (39 goals, 94 points) leads Calgary, but two, 30-goal scorers in Kristian Huselius and Daymond Langkow support him this time around. On the blueline, Dion Phaneuf is as good as any young defenseman in the entire NHL. He’s a hard-hitting, offensively skilled stalwart who will have the duty of shutting down Zetterberg and Datsyuk. In net, it’s the Mikka Kiprusoff Show. Kiprusoff is capable of completely stealing a series on his own, as he did on several occasions during the 2004 playoffs. The Flames are an underrated bunch that should be confident playing a Detroit team they match up well against. The home team won every game in the regular season, so the Flames will have to prove they can win one on the road.
Ex-Hawk Factor: 1. Tony Amonte.
Pick: Calgary in 6.
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Links for the hungry hockey fan.
* The Quest Begins.
* Official NHL Stanley Cup Coverage.
* Ten Burning Playoff Questions.
Posted on April 11, 2007