By Dan O’Shea
Major League Baseball was rocked this week by the confession from Alex Rodriguez that he “experimented” with steroids while playing for the Texas Rangers, a span of three seasons during which he had two of the three biggest single-season home run tallies of his career.
I will leave the condemning of A-Rod to others, and let you privately mull whether or not A-Rod’s career is marred beyond repair. It may sound cold (and ironically supportive of steroids usage, though I assure that is not the case), but all we care about in the fantasy baseball world is numbers, and the factors which might affect those numbers.
Can A-Rod be counted on again for numbers that made him the consensus No. 1 fantasy baseball pick for at least the last four seasons?
Unless he has been juicing for the last four seasons and masking it (which he denies), recent numbers suggest nothing less than a Top 5 fantasy performance for this year. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez arguably already has replaced A-Rod as the consensus No. 1 heading into this season, but A-Rod is definitely No. 2 and on an improved Yankee squad, could end up stealing the show.
It’s certainly possible that distractions for A-Rod will increase this season, though considering what he has been through in NYC already, I think the affect will be minimal. I think he’s capable of this kind of line: 41 HRs, 110 RBIs, .299 AVG, 20 SB, 120 runs, 80 BBs. That’s close to 2008 production for a player who has been very consistent throughout his career, regardless of what he was taking and when.
So, whose draft position could be hurt by steroids usage? How about SS Miguel Tejada, who is being charged with lying to Congress about steroids. Tejada reportedly plans to plead guilty, and while it’s not clear how quickly and how strongly he will be punished, you might want to skip him this season. Not that you weren’t already planning on that – Tejada started out strong last season, but faded fast.
Meanwhile, fantasy baseball registration and draft materials still aren’t available for most leagues, but the experts are hard at work:
* The Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft was into its sixth round earlier this week (A-Rod went at No. 2 overall), with catchers only just becoming a factor. A lot of leagues wait until later-middle rounds to draft catchers, and often the first catcher pick is merely noted, as owners look to fill other positions they consider more pressing. But the second catcher pick usually starts an avalanche, with everyone panicking to grab one of the four or five really good catchers before the end up being forced into the second tier, where stats really drop off. To me, that’s an argument to grab your favorite catcher a round earlier than seems logical – it will be great fun seeing everyone else scramble to adjust their own strategies.
* Baseball Prospectus (subscription required to read the full post) takes a look at the Top 10 fantasy first basemen, without many surprises, except perhaps up-and-comer Chris Davis at No. 10. The young Ranger punished the ball during limited play last season. I do worry about his average, but I’ll go out on a limb and say he finishes second in HRs among all MLB 1Bs this year (with Ryan Howard topping the list, of course).
Fantasy Basketball Round-Up
Enough already about seasons that haven’t started yet. What’s going on in the fantasy basketball world?
Is it all LeBron vs. Kobe, and beyond, just a great abyss. Last week, it kind of seemed that way. My second-place team got beat by the Kobe-holding last place team on the strength of Kobe’s points, field goals made, free throws made and FT% – but that team remains in last place, which clearly shows that Kobe can’t carry you week in and week out.
This week, a short week due to the NBA All-Star Game, my guys are matched up with a team led by LeBron – ugh. But, despite appearances, neither of these two superstars has the hottest shooting hand over the last month. That honor goes All-Star Kevin Durant, who is averaging more than 30 PPG over the last 30 days, and has been sinking FGs during that period at a stunning .517 clip. Durant was ranked 52nd overall in the pre-season, and is proving to be the steal of the draft for anyone who got him as a fifth-rounder. If Durant keeps up the pace, he’s likely to be a first round pick next year (unless he hurts himself playing H-O-R-S-E this weekend).
The All-Star break also indicates that the fantasy basketball trade deadline is nigh.
* Fantasy Basketball Cafe breaks out some fancy number crunching to predict who will be hot hands worth trading for to prop up your second half (or really the final two months of the season). Chicago’s own Joakim Noah tops the list, based on second-half performance last year. Noah has been coming alive of late, though just as in the Scotty Skiles era, you never know who Vinny Del Negro will play and how much – only that he won’t play Larry Hughes.
* Fantasy Basketball Cafe also has Jose Juan Barea listed as its Sleeper of the Week, as Jason Terry, the starter blocking him from more playing time with the Mavericks, is now injured. There was a little bit of buzz about Barea in the pre-season as a back-up to the aging Jason Kidd, but Kidd has been great this season, and Barea coming in at shooting guard with Kidd on the court makes Barea a quick scoring threat.
* ESPN’s Fantasy Blog mentions Ramon Sessions, another player who had a fair amount of pre-season buzz. Lately, with Michael Redd out for the season, he’s been living up to it, with 23.4 points, 7.6 assists and 1.8 steals on average over the last week or so.
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Dan O’Shea’s Fantasy Fix appears every Wednesday, except when it appears on Thursday. Tips, comments, and suggestions are welcome.
Posted on February 11, 2009