By Dan O’Shea
Before we turn our eyes to Week 7 in the NFL, which saw even more stars steered from their starting line-ups by injuries and other issues, let’s focus our attention on matters in which we can still invest some hope. That’s right, the Fantasy NBA season is only just beginning, and not too much has gone wrong yet – unless you’re a wishful Washington Wizards fan eager to show your support by drafting Gilbert Arenas (PG) and Brendan Haywood (C) early. If so, please reconsider, as both have suffered season-obliterating injuries.
Here’s a quick position-by-position round-up of the players worth watching this season:
PG
Best Man
* Chris Paul. Duh . . . Will be the No. 1 pick in most leagues. Will lead NBA in assists and steals. Should improve points-per-game, field goal percentage and may lead New Orleans deep into the post-season.
Sleeper Studs
* Jose Calderon. Getting more popular by the minute. Will lead strong Toronto attack. Great FG% and free throw percentage, and will improve in every stat category.
* Jordan Farmar. We mentioned Mike Conley as one sleeper last week. Farmar’s another. Show-off hi-jinks aside, he’s having a great pre-season. He’ll spell Derek Fisher and Kobe, but may see more time as the season progresses.
Avoid
* Baron Davis. I know – he’s a Top 10 stats player to a lot of people, but he’s already got a finger injury nagging him and we haven’t even started yet. Too injury-prone to pick where his numbers rank him.
SG
Best Man
* Kobe in a landslide. Again, no surprise. Will probably lead the NBA in points again, but could be even better than last year all-around with a strong group around him.
Sleeper Studs
* Brandon Roy. Yes, he’s a PG/SG, but SG-like numbers say it all. All eyes may be on Greg Oden, and that will help Roy by the real key in Portland.
* Ronnie Brewer. Strong pre-season. Will start at SG in Utah, but probably splitting time with Kyle Korver. Would help if he could shoot the trey, but brings great all around game, stealing balls like a PG.
Avoid
* Andre Iguodala. He is really moving from SF to SG, and shooting all those jumpers may not be his thing. Elton Brand will take the scoring load that used to be his alone after Allen Iverson left town.
SF
Best Man
* Lebron. This is the easy part, as with Chris Paul and Kobe. More of the same, but even better with the Cavs set to play a faster game behind PG Mo Williams.
Sleeper Studs
* Francisco Garcia. In Sacramento, he’ll back-up John Salmons, who himself was a sleeper stud last year, but Garcia’s got huge 3-PT potential and scores quickly once he’s on the court. Draft him ahead of where you feel comfortable drafting him.
* Jamario Moon. Was a sleeper last year, but a little inconsistent. I’m a big believer in Toronto this season, and his chances as Jermaine O’Neal and Chris Bosh lure defenders away.
Avoid
* Hedo Turkoglu. Tough call here because he was so fun to watch last year (although not at the United Center), but the NBA’s Most Improved Player from last season can’t help but disappoint this year. I like Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis to come on even stronger this year, and the Turk may suffer.
PF
Best Man
* Amare Stoudemire. Great offensive threat. Supposedly will improve FT% this year, and has worked on his generally weak defense. Could have a slim chance to lead the league in scoring if he stays healthy.
Sleeper Studs
* Antawn Jamison. Supposedly is healthy. We’ll see, but he averages a double-double, which we love. Could score even more as he and Caron Butler share the load with Arenas out.
* Zack Randolph. Yes, a multiple-season bust, but re-born under Mike D’Antoni in New York. Watch those rebounds and minutes rise as D-Antoni gets tired of tired, old Eddy Curry.
Avoid
* Drew Gooden. Don’t believe the hype. You can’t build an offense around Gooden, even if his shot has improved. I think Vinny Del Negro will be doing a lot of experimenting, and Gooden will end up with his usual respectable numbers, but not much more. Pick him in the final round if he’s still available.
C
Best Man
* Dwight Howard. His pre-season rank puts him in the fourth round or so (probably his C-only eligibility hurting his position), but for God’s sake, take him at the end of the second or early third. Will lead the league in rebounds again, and I bet he finishes second in points among C-eligible players behind Stoudemire.
Sleeper Studs
* Andrew Bogut. Besides Spencer Hawes, who may be a deeper sleeper, Bogut will be the biggest surprise at C. With Scotty Skiles in town, his defensive stats will be up, and he’s capable of 17 PPG or more.
Al Horford: He’s not really a C, but fills that role in Atlanta’s system. Double-doubles will be in abundance. Was decent but tentative last season. Will be just plain good this year.
Avoid
* Jermaine O’Neal. Has there been a more disappointing player in the NBA the last two seasons? Toronto looks very good, but Bosh, Moon and Calderon will be doing more of the work.
That’ll be the position-by-position guide I have in mind this week as I draft in a 10-team league. More specifically, here’s who I’m gunning for the first five rounds:
Round 1
Target: Amare Stoudemire (PF/C)
Back-up: Caron Butler (SF)
Analysis: Stoudemire’s injury issues scare me, but the buzz about his improvement doesn’t. Butler is often underrated, and it is not out of line to call him a mini-LeBron. If a draw the 10th spot in the draft order, I may still get sneers, but I’m taking Butler.
Round 2
Target: Deron Williams (PG)
Back-up: Steve Nash (PG)
Analysis: I’m a big believer in locking up big-name PGs early, as many owners devalue assists. Williams may miss the first few games, but will just keep getting better, while Nash is sliding but still good.
Round 3
Target: Dwight Howard (C)
Back-up: Jose Calderon (PG)
Analysis: Maybe I’m over-reacting, but I’m actually scared someone will take Howard in Round 2. Same with Calderon, a chic pick at PG if you’re drawing late in the round.
Round 4
Target: Paul Pierce (SG/SF)
Back-up: Carmelo Anthony (SF)
Analysis: It depends on how much you believe in the decline of the Celtics this year, but don’t doubt the veracity of The Truth. ‘Melo’s points are a bargain if he’s still available here.
Round 5
Target: Brandon Roy (PG/SG)
Back-up: Lamar Odom (SF/PF)
Analysis: Roy we’ve talked about. I think he’ll survive under the radar to Round 5. Odom averaged a double-double last season in is part of that strong Lakers group around Kobe.
There you go. Follow that plan, and you’ll have one-third or so of a championship roster. Next week, I’l talk about how this plan worked out for me, or perhaps how it didn’t work out at all.
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Fantasy Football Round-Up
Returning to the gridiron is something some of you may want to do at this point, considering the following Week 7 disappointments:
* Tony Romo, QB, injured, out Week 7 and maybe Week 8
* Reggie Bush, RB, 55 Rush YDs, 5 rec. YDs, 16 Ret. YDs, out indefinitely after knee surgery
* Larry Johnson, RB, out Week 8, assault allegations
* Kellen Winslow, TE, out, staph infection and Week 8 suspension
* Laurence Maroney, RB, injured, out for season
* Jon Kitna, QB, injured, out for season
All of these injuries or incidents occurred within one week. So, who’s healthy and surprising us with strong performances?
* Dan Orlovsky, QB: 265 Pass YDs, 1 TD
* Mewelde Moore, RB: 120 Rush YDs, 3 TDs
* Matt Cassel, QB: 185 Pass YDs, 3 TDs
* Calvin Johnson, WR: 154 Rec. YDs, 1 TD
Can we count on any of those guys in Week 8? Lions Orlovsky and Johnson have a very tough assignment against the Washington secondary, so count them out. Moore deserves more chances, but Willie Parker probably will be back for Pittsburgh. Cassel should light up St. Louis, but that’s what the Cowboys had in mind last week before the Rams crushed them.
Okay, then, who can you count on in Week 8? Predictions:
* Jason Campbell, QB: 220 Pass YDs, 2 TDs vs. Detroit
* Thomas Jones, 100 Rush YDs, 2 TDs vs. K.C.
* Steve Smith, WR: 120 Rec. YDs, 2 TDs vs Ariz.
Next week is the mid-way point of the season. We’ll take a closer look at the players who should be star performers down the stretch.
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Dan O’Shea’s Fantasy Fix appears weekly, analyzing fantasy football and basketball trends with the goal of helping you win the envy of your league, the ire of your spouse and one of those little virtual trophies. Send him your gripes, compliments, suggestions and broker’s fees.
Posted on October 22, 2008