Fantasy Fix

By Dan O'Shea

NFL coaches have had a tough year, and I'm not just talking about the assistant who was allegedly beaten and threatened by his own head coach in Oakland. Of course, here in Chicago, there's poor Lovie Smith and his embarrassing lack of facial expressions - he's only got that one open-mouthed, dumb-founded languorous look that TV cameras tend to dwell upon.

Meanwhile, it seems like a larger number of coaches than usual may be on the firing line this off-season, with former Bears coach Dick Jauron already a goner in Buffalo. Even the good coaches are seeing their decisions questioned. This past Sunday night, New England's Bill Belichick, the coach who formerly could do no wrong, was lambasted for going for it on fourth down and short yardage deep in his own territory with little time left, up by less than a touchdown, and with a guy named Peyton Manning leading the other team's offense. The Patriots didn't make the first down, and lost. The move was pure Belichick: A first down would have won the game, and to punt it was to unquestionably put it in the hands of the best quarterback of the decade (sorry, Tom Brady) and possibly this year's MVP (that would be Manning). A gutsy move, and I liked it.

Still, you won't find me offering much more love to NFL coaches in general because they continue to wreak havoc on our fantasy teams. What makes fantasy football so challenging is balancing individual player past performance, future expectations and week-to-week match-ups, and making a decision about who to sit and who to start. But, often, the real wild card is a fourth factor: Communication from head coaches. Sometimes they name starters for a given week, other times they introduce some mystery by saying there isn't a clear starter, or saying they'll give the second-string guy more playing time or more touches in a given week even though he actually won't be starting the game on the field. Some coaches act like they're stating the facts, others like they are playing mind games with that week's opponent. In any case, there is risk in taking them too much at their word.

My sad examples from last week involved Kansas City RB Kolby Smith, a hot pick-up last week (after previous starter Larry Johnson was released), and Washington RB Ladell Betts, who seemed poised to start until questions arose late about an injury and the possibility that he might share carries with two other RBs. I had a bye week for several players, and needed help, so I picked up both, with the idea I would start Smith and might hold long-term if he panned out, and would stash Betts on the bench for Week 10.

What happened was this: Smith, who was talked up by his head coach prior to the game, scrounged for a few yards here and there, but Jamaal Charles, a forgotten man on the KC bench, got most of the carries, and ran wild for 103 yards and a long TD. Betts, whose coach didn't vocally commit to him before the game and raised the injury issue, also went nuts, running for 114 yards and a TD.

I took cues from the coaches' statement in the press, and got burned (though I also figured I was safe with the match-ups - Smith against a lousy run defense, and Betts against a great one). So, I guess the first moral of this story is not to take the loaded statements of NFL coaches too literally, and the second is not to over-think.

Our Week 11 Fantasy Fix Action Ratings take a look a largely-unowned star performers from Week 10:

Player: Lee Evans, WR
FFAR: PICK UP
Comment: Buffalo's offense has been mediocre all year (losing to Cleveland 6-3 is the definition of bad), and much of that was due to the loss of QB Trent Edwards to injury, not necessarily Jauron's lack of imagination (though that didn't help). Now, Edwards is back, and Evans was his favorite target in Week 10, more than Terrell Owens. That may continue, though this isn't Tom Brady-to-Randy Moss, so don't expect miracles.

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Player: Marc Bulger,QB
FFAR: PICK UP
Comment: 298 yards passing and 2 TDs with 1 INT last week against an unbeaten team that collects INTs by the bundle. He has some soft defenses to play against the rest of the season after a challenging assignment in Arizona this week, though. Definitely not a starter in one-QB leagues, but in two-QB leagues he might have potential.

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Player: Jason Avant, WR
FFAR: SKIP
Comment: Came out of nowhere for 156 receiving yards for Philadelphia, but QB Donovan McNabb was burning through receivers like crazy last week, to the tune of 450 yards passing. Avant is now on his radar, but he's not the first, second or even third choice for McNabb, and it was clear last week that McNabb was not looking for him in the end zone.

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Player: Michael Bush, RB
FFAR: SKIP
Comment: Oakland turned away from Darren McFadden some weeks ago, and toward Bush, who ran for 119 yards in Week 10, but he will face some tough defenses the next few weeks (Cincinnati, Dallas, Pittsburgh). Also, McFadden, recovering from injury, should be much more in the mix for carries, and a third RB, Justin Fargas, seems to get red-zone touches, which could take scores away from Bush.

Expert Wire
* Yahoo! Pick-Ups of the Week lists Detroit QB Matthew Stafford as a strong buy, in part because he is playing Cleveland. I'll go along with that, though more so just because I like how much the Lions are having Stafford throw more every week - 51 attempts last week. He's thrown twice as many INTs (12) as TDs (6), so the numbers look a bit ugly, but you'll get at least 200 yards passing and a TD out of him.

* Bleacher Report says Atlanta QB Matt Ryan may be in for a tough game in Week 11 against the New York Football Giants. Starting RB Michael Turner probably will be sidelined with an injury, but that seems likely to make Ryan throw more often, which I think means more completions and yards, though the Giants certainly know how to bring the pressure.

* FanHouse has more on the Dick Jauron firing. I don't really buy that this changes things in the fantasy world, though the growing argument has it that new management will try to make sense of the Owens signing by forcing the ball his way.

* ESPN's Eric Karabell comments on some breaking news: Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe, who has had an up-and-down season, but still has been a frequent pass target, has been suspended for four weeks for a drug violation. Bowe has not been as good as he was last year, but was still a viable flex option. Now, he is no more than a stretch if your team is still alive in the fantasy league playoffs the last two weeks of the NFL season.

Fantasy Basketball
After the first few weeks of the NBA season, it is probably becoming clear where your fantasy team's shortcomings are. Maybe you have narrowly won match-ups, but that won't win championships. Where are the weak spots? Too few three-pointers? Not enough steals? Crappy field goal percentage?

Salvation might be found on the waiver wire, with some help from the FFAR:

Player: Rudy Fernandez, PG/SG
FFAR: PICK UP
Comment: If your problem is lack of three-pointers or steals, Fernandez is your answer. He has treys to spare, 19 so far in the short season, and 21 steals. There are players widely available who have more baskets from beyond the arc, like Steve Blake, but Fernandez brings a .457 FG%, while Blake is sitting down at .348.

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Player: Carl Landry, SF/PF
FFAR: PICK UP
Comment: Landry has been on a run, and may only be a short-term option, but he's delivered 14.2 PPG on a .545 FG% this year. He's taking more than 10 shots per game, which is a good threshold for the FG% to have a real impact on your team average.

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Player: Jared Dudley, SF/PF
FFAR: PICK UP
Comment: He has 13 steals and 17 three-pointers in 11 games, and has a nice balance of other stats - 9.2 PPG and a .466 FG%, so that he's more than just a specialist in those areas. Dudley also has consistently been in the mix for more than 22 minutes per game.

Expert Wire
* ESPN's Fantasy Basketball Blog has analysis of the trade that sent troubled/troublesome Stephen Jackson to Charlotte. The blog sees Jackson's numbers taking a hit because he's dropping into a lineup with the slowest-paced game in the league. Yet, I wouldn't be surprised if he leads Charlotte in scoring, not that that's anything to write home about.

* SLAM Online follows up on the ankle injury to superstar PG Chris Paul. This was one of those painful-looking injuries that makes it tough to guess how much time will be missed. SLAM says a rookie, Darren Collison, will get most of the opportunity in Paul's absence.

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Dan O'Shea's Fantasy Fix appears in this space every Wednesday. Tips, comments, and suggestions are welcome. You can also read his about his split sports fan personality at SwingsBothWays, which isn't about what it sounds like It's about.