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The Mayoral Odds

For entertainment purposes only. Including gambling.

First posted: 9/9

Last updated: 9/21 9/30 10/4 10/14 10/22 10/24 10/26 10/27 11/3 11/5 11/8 11/14 12/12 12/18 12/26 1/1 1/7 2-9

Last posted: 2/22


*

Candidate: Rahm Emanuel
Status: Considering Almost In In
Odds: 100-1 2-1
Comment: Ask yourself a few questions. Does he really want to go from running the free world to worrying about Streets and San? And the man is still relatively young and ambitious. Where would he go from here - president? He's everybody's favorite but it's hard to envision.

UPDATE 2/9: Amazingly marshals forces to bully himself into office while pretending he's a reformer and a cool guy (thanks, Ax, you were right, it worked for Obama!) - with the most cold, hard cash. Rose Garden strategy and unresponsiveness to the press, the public and attention to neighborhoods signals the representation of Richard M. Daley's sixth term. His election will expose once again just how bad Chicago sucks.

UPDATE 2/22: The combination of Rahm's campaign fortune and his desire to crush all enemies will likely put our new boss over the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. Wear a black armband today - or a del Valle button - if you are one of the few who understand just how horrible this is going to be.

*

Candidate: Gery Chico
Status: Reportedly In In
Odds: 433-1 3-1
Comment: Might have made a decent if sleazy U.S. Senator but a smart but slick lawyer who seems suspicious isn't likely to get much traction.

UPDATE 2/9: As much as a walking conflict of interest as Chico is, he's still easily preferable to Emanuel; he has imagination and his experience as Daley's chief of staff and chairman of the board of both the parks district and the school board means he knows the budgets inside and out as well as how much of city government really operates. He's also become a much better campaigner than when he ran for the Senate, even though he was easily the most knowledgeable of the candidates then, too.

UPDATE 2/22: Funny how Rahm is Daley's guy but Chico is the one perceived as the status quo candidate. Question: If the status quo is so bad - which it is - why would you vote for the candidate supported by the status quo?

(Memo to Gery: Please don't have a beer with Rahm at the Billy Goat or a sandwich at Manny's when this is all over. Form an opposition party instead.)

*

Candidate: Miguel Del Valle
Status: Considering In
Odds: 6-1 100-1
Comment: Nicely situated; would be a first-tier candidate.

UPDATE 2/9: Has gotten surprisingly little support from so-called Lakefront liberals and progressives; would also have made for the best "minority consensus" candidate. Clearly the only scandal-free candidate whose background on the education committee in the General Assembly as well as a stellar test run of sorts in the admittedly small city clerk's office should have meant more than it has. His neighborhood-centric platform is just what Chicago needs but powerful interests and the hypnotized masses seem hell-bent on perpetuating the Potemkin Village of China-loving Chicago.

UPDATE 2/22: The media pretends it wants substance, ethics and transparency but they always fall for the colorless bully dictators they then assign charismatic values as if re-living and somehow trying to correct and/or rationalize the traumas of their youth.

*

Candidate: Carol Moseley Braun
Status: Considering In
Odds: 50,000-1 5,000-1 1,000-1
Comment: Not completely unlikely but no one will forget Nigeria. Convinced henchmen Victor Reyes and Mike Noonan to hop aboard.

UPDATE 2/9: She's gotten further than a lot of the so-called experts expected, but her undisciplined campaign stands no chance against a media eager to bury her for errors allowed to others; mayoral temperament? Who the hell is in office right now and how many idiotic things has he said? Ditto for the frontrunner.

UPDATE 2/22: She's pretty much done in this town.

*

Candidate: Adam West
Status: Apparently In In
Odds: 50-1
Comment: Plans to keep his job in Quahog could complicate matters, but his campaign has already got a Facebook page and swag on the market.

*

Candidate: Dock Walls
Status: Has To Be Thinking About It Even Though I Think He's Running For Governor Or Something Reportedly In In
Odds: He's already won in one of Stephen Hawking's parallel universes.
Comments: He runs for everything else; he oughta become a Nike endorser. (If only Harold Stassen was alive!)

*

Candidate: Roland Burris
Status: Out Considering In, momentarily, along with Patricia Van Pelt Watkins, Fredrick K. White, Tyrone Carter, Fenton Patterson, John Hu and Howard Ray. Out
Odds: 500,000-1
Comment: You know he's thought about it; too bad you took that Senate appointment!

UPDATE 2/9: Burris still out; Van Pelt Watkins still in. Why?

*

Candidate: Cynthia Plaster Caster
Status: In
Odds: 50,000-1
Comment: How can you not like a candidate who promises the hard truth?

*

Candidate: Lisa Madigan
Status: Apparently Out Possibly Considering Apparently Out Out
Odds: 3-1
Comment: Would face some backlash if she ran - it's time the job wasn't a family business - but would still become the instant frontrunner.

Last Heard From: 9/22: "Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan on Wednesday refused to say she would complete her third term if she is re-elected in November, leaving the door open for a run for Chicago mayor."

10/14: "No." So, still speaking in legalese.

*

Candidate: Dan Hynes
Status: Has To Be Thinking About It Apparently Out Out
Odds: 5-1
Comment: Would face some backlash if he ran - it's time the job wasn't a family business - but would become one of the favorites though he should be the next governor instead.

Last Heard From: 9/16: "Comptroller Dan Hynes was reportedly approached by unions months ago about preparing for a run, but many don't expect Hynes to jump in after losing his second statewide primary race."

12/9/10: Endorses Rahm.

*

Candidate: Robert Fioretti
Status: In Out
Odds: 10-1
Comment: Called Daley a child when it still looked like he'd run again but the city's structural deficit is not a winning issue. Look for him to get some African-American support, however.

11/3: Bows out with throat cancer.

*

Candidate: Tom Dart
Status: In Out
Odds: 10-1
Comment: Before he was sheriff he was a state legislator, so he wouldn't exactly be a one-dimensional candidate. But some of the shine would come off during a campaign - he has no place to go but down.

10/28: Wants to spend more time with his family.

*

Candidate: James Meeks
Status: Considering In Out
Odds: 50-1
Comment: He's got a huge congregation but he's a reverend with some pretty wacky views; scrutiny would do him in.

Last Heard From: Hating gay people.

10/19: Mixing church and state.

11/1: Pretending he's no longer running his church.

12/23: Meeks withdraws.

*

Candidate: Ed Burke
Status: Willing To Grant Us A Single Term Apparently Out Out
Odds: 25-1
Comment: And after that term he'd declare martial law and put us all to work on his plantation.

Last Heard From: Not lately. Too busy planning to cash in on his wife's eventual ascension to chief of the state Supreme Court.

10/15: "[M]y intention [is] to seek re-election as Alderman and not seek the Office of Mayor." So, still speaking in legalese.

11/25: "Campaign foot soldiers for Alderman Edward Burke, from the 14th Ward on the Southwest Side, instead helped Gery Chico, whose mayoral campaign gathered about 50,000 signatures. Mr. Burke, the longest-serving alderman and chairman of the City Council's Finance Committee, had not previously declared his preference for mayor. He told the Chicago News Cooperative this week that he directed the 14th Ward Democratic workers whose names appeared as circulators on petitions for Mr. Chico, a native of the Southwest Side.

"'We haven't officially made an endorsement, but it would be close to that,' Mr. Burke said, citing Mr. Chico's experience in high-level Daley appointments, including chief of staff and city school board president."

*

Candidate: Ed Vrdolyak
Status: Out. Convicted Felon.
Odds: 50-1
Comment: You never know with Fast Eddie.

Last Heard From: Seeking pardon from Obama first.

10/15: "Yeah, I got 10 months."

*

Candidate: Tim Evans
Status: Has To Be Considering It Apparently Not Out
Odds: 10-1
Comment: Would be some measure of justice, no pun intended.

Last Heard From: Not since he was re-elected chief judge of the Cook County Circuit Court.

*

Candidate: Dorothy Brown
Status: Out
Odds: 100,000-1
Comment: Wanted to spare the city from overdosing on the inevitable slew of Jeans Day jokes. Like creating a Jeans TIF.

Last Heard From: Conspicuously quiet.

*

Candidate: Bobby Rush
Status: Out
Odds: 50,000-1
Comment: Weakened by illness; otherwise he'd be pounding yard signs as we speak.

Last Heard From: 9/14: Slagging Rahm.

10/8: Slagging Meeks.

*

Candidate: Maria Pappas
Status: Under The Radar Out
Odds: 100-1
Comment: Isn't it time to go Greek?

Last Heard From: 9/14: But you heard it here first. Waiting to see if any other women jump in?

12/12: Off the grid.

*

Candidate: Pat Ryan
Status: Having Fleeting Thoughts That Quickly Disappear Out
Odds: 25-1.
Comment: Would face backlash against Irish Mafia but also fits the profile of the businessman mayor who knows how to manipulate money.

Last Heard From: Loudly counting his money.

*

Candidate: Sandi Jackson
Status: One Of Three Jacksons Considering It Out
Odds: 100-1 1,000-1
Comment: The idea of Sandi Jackson is far more powerful than the reality of Sandi Jackson, which is that she's shockingly unimpressive.
UPDATE 9/21: Taint of husband's infidelity and Indians fails to make her a sympathetic figure.

Last Heard From: 9/26: Telling the world her husband never had any intention of running for mayor.

11/30: Running for re-election instead.

*

Candidate: Jesse Jackson Jr.
Status: One Of Three Jacksons Considering It Out
Odds: 63.5-1 100-1
Comment: If it wasn't for the Blago taint, he'd be an instant frontrunner and planes would soon be landing in Peotone. But how can he now? It must be killing him.
UPDATE 9/21: Taint of infidelity and Indians probably too much.

Last Heard From: See Sandi.

*

Candidate: Jonathan Jackson
Status: One Of Three Jacksons Considering It Out
Odds: 1,000,000-1 10,000,000
Comment: Wait, what?
UPDATE 9/21: Who woulda thunk Junior would be the one to wipe out the family's political prospects?

Last Heard From: Who?

*

Candidate: Jesse Jackson Sr.
Status: Make That Four Jacksons Considering It Out
Odds: 500,000-1
Comment: It must have crossed his mind.
UPDATE: 9/21: Still as unlikely as ever, but not any more unlikely. He's already had his affair.

Last Heard From: Muttering "There for the grace of God went I . . . "

*

Candidate: Tom Allen
Status: Considering Out
Odds: 100-1
Comment: Relatively sane, workaday white guy who doesn't quite rise to the level of clownage or charisma that Chicagoans expect.

Last Heard From: 9/22: Trying to pretend he wasn't slagging Rahm.

11/5: Appointed to the Cook County bench.

*

Candidate: Anita Alvarez
Status: Unknown Out
Odds: 25-1
Comment: Would quickly corner the female Hispanic market while playing the law-and-order candidate but is the desire really there?

Last Heard From: 9/16: Prosecuting SOS mopes.

UPDATE: 10/4: Our bad. According to Eric Zorn, she lives in River Forest and therefore doesn't have residency - though that won't stop Rahm.

*

Candidate: Scott Waguespack
Status: Considering Out
Odds: 1,000-1
Comment: Daley retirement actually hurts him; field just got too crowded for him to emerge.

*

Candidate: Rod Blagojevich
Status: Out. Convicted Felon.
Odds: 1,000,000-1
Comment: Would face some backlash if he ran - it's time the job wasn't a family business - but he could auction off his suits to raise the only campaign cash he'd need.

Last Heard From: Are you kidding?

*

Candidate: Robert Blagojevich
Status: Getting The Hell Out Of Here
Odds: 500,000-1
Comment: Seems like he could get elected mayor around here though these days.

Last Heard From: Attending church to thank God for his good luck.

*

Candidate: Dick Mell
Status: Out
Odds: 250,000-1
Comment: Would face enormous backlash for giving us Blago, though mitigated by jump-starting federal investigation.

Last Heard From: Reportedly seen in Tennessee trying to persuade Robert Blagojevich he could have a bright political future here.

*

Candidate: Brendan Reilly
Status: Considering Apparently Out Out
Odds: 100-1.
Comment: As downtown's alderman and a former AT&T public affairs hack, he partially fits mold as a business type and probably has access to money. Also a Madigan guy. But downtown Irish white guy doesn't play this time around.

*

Candidate: Tom Tunney
Status: Considering Out
Odds: 5,000-1.
Comment: The gay community isn't that big and is performance as alderman has been a little stumblebum lately.

Last Heard From: 9/27: Talking to Rahm.

*

Candidate: Desiree Rogers
Status: Conniving. And Out.
Odds: 100,000-1
Comment: Well, she did run Peoples Gas.

Last Heard From: 9/21: Air kissing at Fashion Week.

*

Candidate: Valerie Jarrett
Status: Under The Radar Out
Odds: 50-1
Comment: Easier to see than Rahm. She'd make history as the first black woman and inherit much of Daley's power structure. She's already sat on CHA and CPS boards. Obama would back her. Daley probably would too.

*

Candidate: James Houlihan
Status: In Out
Odds: 500-1
Comment: It's not the year to be the affable white Irish assessor.

*

Candidate: David Hoffman
Status: Has To Be Thinking About It Out
Odds: 50-1
Comment: Has an immediate well of support but something about him as the actual mayor doesn't seem quite right.

*

Candidate: Todd Stroger
Status: Too Busy Pilfering Every Last Penny Out Of The County Before His Departure There
Odds: 600,000-1
Comment: If only you were competent, this could have been a move you could have made.

*

Candidate: Tom Tresser
Status: Unknown Out
Odds: 50,000-1.
Comment: Could have ridden anti-Olympic effort to some success but lost focus when he weirdly entered the Cook County president's race instead.

Last Heard From: 9/25: Attacking Toni Preckwinkle for her unholy alliance with Joe Berrios.

*

Candidate: Bill Daley
Status: Playing Coy Out
Odds: 100-1.
Comment: Time for a change of families but put nothing past these guys.

*

Candidate: John Daley
Status: Playing Coy Out
Odds: 1,000-1
Comment: See Bill.

*

Candidate: Michael Daley
Status: Unknown Out
Odds: 10,000-1
Comment: See John.

*

Candidate: Patrick Daley
Status: Unknown Out
Odds:100,000-1
Comment: Looking at Moscow race instead.

*

Candidate: Billy Dec
Status: Stoked. But Out.
Odds: 50,000-1
Comment: Wants to change name of Block 37 to Hub37.

*

Candidate: Manny Flores
Status: Reportedly In In Out
Odds: 75-1.
Comment: Has to be thinking even more about how a congressional seat may open up in the scramble.

*

Candidate: Luis Gutierrez
Status: Considering Out
Odds: 25-1
Comment: Wants it but the moment no longer seems his.

Last Heard From: 9/30: Transforming America through immigration - and rightly so. Your calling is elsewhere.

*

Candidate: John Fritchey
Status: Considering Out
Odds: 30-1
Comment: Would he really bring in the National Guard if he won?

*

Candidate: Patrick Fitzgerald
Status: No Fucking Way
Odds: Off the board
Comment: Bodies would become unburied in a hurry.

*

Candidate: Danny Davis
Status: Mulling In Out
Odds: 25-1
Comment: It's not a ghost retirement job, Danny.

Last Heard From: 9/30: Now formally mulling.

10/21: Gathering petitions.

11/8: Comeback consensus candidate, which means next to nothing.

1/1: Davis drops out.

*

Candidate: Robert Vanesco
Status: Unknown. But Out.
Odds: 75-1
Comment: A Daley without the name, in the family and already into the family business.

*

Candidate: Angelo Torres
Status: Unknown
Odds: 750-1
Comment: "Perhaps the city (as an entity) can simply hire Angelo Torres as our next mayor," says Beachwood contributor Matt Farmer. "That way, when things ultimately go south, no one individual will be responsible for having hired him."

*

Candidate: Oprah
Status: Angelic
Odds: 1,000 angels dancing to one pinhead
Comment: Only if she can do it from California.

*

Candidate: Scott Lee Cohen
Status: Has To Be Thinking About It Even Though I Think He's Running For Governor Or Something Out
Odds: 50-1
Comment: Has strong cash management skills.

Last Heard From: Still running for governor.

*

Candidate: Bill Beavers
Status: You Think The Thought Didn't Cross His Mind? But Out.
Odds: 1,000-1
Comment: His nuts aren't that big.

*

Candidate: Leslie Hairston
Status: Out
Odds: 100-1
Comment: A female African-American alderman (woman) is a potentially potent combination - if only she were competent.

*

Candidate: Forrest Claypool
Status: Playing Coy Out
Odds: 50-1
Comment: A new Cook County board president and a new mayor and he won't be either. Has to be eating him up.

*

Candidate: Joe Moore
Status: Considering Out
Odds: 75-1
Comment: Hasn't put the pieces in place over the years the way he might have if he really wanted the job.

Last Heard From: 9/21: Barring an unforeseen circumstance. Like what, all the other candidates dying in the same plane crash?

*

Candidate: David Orr
Status: Has To Be Thinking About It Out
Odds: 75-1
Comment: Gave up years ago and retired to cushy county job.

Last Heard From: 9/27: Telling the DePaulia what the city needs in a mayor.

*

Candidate: Ricardo Munoz
Status: Unknown Out
Odds: 75-1
Comment: Might have been formidable but personal and family issues making the timing bad; probably looking at a congressional run instead.

*

Candidate: Toni Preckwinkle
Status: Has A Previous Commitment
Odds: 100,000-1
Comment: Now living in a world of regret.

*

Candidate: Bill Kurtis & Walter Jacobson
Status: Broadcasting From An Unwatched Location
Odds: 100-1
Comment: No, dummies, the first thing you're supposed to do is seize the radio station.

*

Candidate: Ron Huberman
Status: Considering Out
Odds: 15-1
Comment: A Daleyite who looks black and knows city government; also gay and Jewish. But not a people person.

Last Heard From: 9/23: Keeping secrets.

10/6: Quitting.

*

Candidate: Arne Duncan
Status: Unknown. But Out.
Odds: 100-1
Comment: Real scrutiny of schools record would prove embarrassing.

*

Candidate: Paul Vallas
Status: Out. Doesn't have residency.
Odds: Off the board.
Comment: Should've been governor; powers-that-be didn't allow it - and look what happened.

*

Candidate: Patrick O'Connor
Status: Has To Be Thinking About It Out
Odds: 1,000-1
Comment: A stalking horse for every other open office, why not this one?

*

Candidate: Ed Smith
Status: Playing Coy Out
Odds: 350-1
Comment: Will never really be quite ready for prime time.

Last Heard From: He hasn't been.

10/20: Judging others.

11/17: Retiring.

*

Candidate: Terry Peterson
Status: Considering Out
Odds: 63-1
Comment: An insider who has done Daley's bidding but is barely known and without a constituency.

Last Heard From: Possibly managing Rahm's campaign.

*

Candidate: Mike Quigley
Status: Has To Be Thinking About It Out
Odds: 75-1
Comment: Just got to Washington. He'll have another shot if he wants it. Maybe even in four years.

*

Candidate: Jay Stone
Status: The First One In Removed by election board along with M. Tricia Lee, Ryan Graves and Tommy Hanson. Rob Halpin also dropped out.
Odds: A Kabillion to One
Comment: The one guy his father - Berny Stone - could beat.

*

Candidate: Patrick Collins
Status: Unknown Out
Odds: 5,000-1
Comment: Political neophyte rumored to be a Republican recruiting target.

*

Candidate: Ray Orozco
Status: Unknown Out
Odds: 6,000-1
Comment: Did Daley really ask him if he was interested in a private meeting a couple months ago?

*

Candidate: Ron Gidwitz
Status: Unknown Out
Odds: 500-1
Comment: Rahm would actually be the business community's candidate and Gidwitz doesn't have the charisma or name recognition to be our Michael Bloomberg.

*

Candidate: Patrick Murphy
Status: Unknown Out
Odds: 1,000-1
Comment : Now a judge, the former Cook County Public Guardian was a zealous advocate for children and used to have a relatively high profile.

*

Candidate: Kwame Raoul
Status: Out
Odds: 10,000-1
Comment: I thought about including him on the original list but he's been such a nothing I decided against it. He did, however, just publicly declare himself out so there you go.

*

Candidate: Anne Burke
Status: Unknown Out But Possibly Key
Odds: 500-1
Comment: I intimated she might be pulling strings to become chief judge of the state supreme court but one reader thought I might be referring to her pulling strings to become mayor. I doubt it, but I would put nothing past the Burkes.

*

Candidate: R. Emmett Tyrell
Status: Wants To Be In Out
Odds: A Zillion To One
Comment: I'm only adding him now because his fake campaign is getting some fake traction. Might as well bring in Alan Keyes.

*

Candidate: Rickey Hendon
Status: In Out
Odds: Please. We refuse to play along.
Comment: Always looking for a leverage point from which to extract something from someone.

*

Candidate: Cynthia Soto
Status: Unknown Out
Odds: 750-1
Comment: Why not? A progressive Hispanic female who once worked in the Cook County State's Attorney's Office in the child support enforcement division and is now in the General Assembly whose committees include Appropriations-General Service; Appropriations-Higher Education; Labor (Vice-Chairperson); Transportation & Motor Vehicles; Mass Transit; Agreed Labor Bills, Subcommittee; Pension Fund Management Procurement; Transit Management and Performance.

*

Candidate: Emil Jones
Status: Supposedly Considering Out
Odds: 500,000-1
Comments: You expect me not to mention that he's Outsider Obama's self-described political mentor?

*

Candidate: Bridget Gainer
Status: Considering Out
Odds: 250-1
Comment: Not this time, but she might have a future.

Last Heard From: 9/13: "Gainer, an Aon executive, has worked as an analyst in the city Budget and Management Department and as the lakefront director of the Chicago Park District. Last year, she was appointed to the fill out the term of Mike Quigley after he was elected to Congress for the seat once held by White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, who also has expressed an interest in the mayor's race."

10/21: Collecting petitions.

*

Candidate: Tim King
Status: Supposedly Considering Out
Odds: 500-1
Comment: Only if his middle name is Martin Luther.

Last Heard From: 9/24: Talking to Delmarie Cobb.

*

Candidate: Larry Rogers Jr.
Status: Considering Out
Odds: 1,000-1
Comment: County board of review not exactly a mayoral launching pad.

*

Candidate: Wilfredo de Jesus
Status: In Out
Odds: 500,000-1
Comment: But is he any more repugnant than James Meeks? And for that matter, his view that the Bible decrees marriage to be between a man and a woman is the exact same position that Barack Obama holds.

1/7: You mean he was still in?

*

Candidate: Annazette Collins
Status: Apparently Considering Out
Odds: 50,000-1
Comment: Appeared before black caucus seeking consensus candidate.

-

Comments welcome.

-

1. From Beachwood Mark:

Candidate: Phil Ponce
Status: Dozing
Odds: 50-1
Comment: Time for a new family dynasty at City Hall - this time with more harmonizing!

*

Candidate: Billy Corgan
Status: Whining
Odds: 100-1
Comment: Anything to get people to pay attention again.

*

Candidate: Lovie Smith
Status: Planning For A Lot Of Free Time On His Hands
Odds: 300-1
Comment: Maybe "better than Detroit" will be good enough as mayor.

*

Candidate: George Ryan
Status: Laundry Duty
Odds: 500-1 (pending appeal)
Comment: CTA drivers and City Hall clerks, get your checkbooks ready - Christmas is coming.

*

Candidate: Jody Weis
Status: Brooding
Odds: 1,000-1
Comment: Doesn't want to take the pay cut.

*

Candidate: Richard Roeper
Status: Maybe A Rent-It, But Not Quite a See-It
Odds: 200-1
Comment: Knows all about no-show jobs, but Sneed hears that this one's a longshot.

*

Candidate: Sam Adam, Jr.
Status: Fiery
Odds: 10-1
Comment: Knows how to work a roomful of reporters, oversee a political circus, and spin defeat into a PR victory.

*

Candidate: Chicago Mayors, LLC
Status: Lining Up Funding
Odds: To be determined by a collection of connected banking and investment firms
Comment: The city is on the cutting edge of civic financing innovation yet again, this time approving a 20-year lease on the mayor's office to a private consortium for a lump-sum payment.

-

2. From our pal driftglass:

This Sporting Life: Longer Odds/Darker Horses.



Permalink

Posted on February 22, 2011


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