For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.
The chance that . . .
Pat Quinn wins the nomination: 99 percent. Up four ticks because passing a pension reform bill shows that something can get done despite him. But Tio Hardiman lurks . . .
Pat Quinn wins re-election: 55 percent. Up five and now the prohibitive favorite; also, now everyone's forgotten about Paul Vallas.
Kirk Dillard wins GOP nomination: 30 percent. Down another five ticks; not a strong voice in pension debate.
Dan Rutherford wins GOP nomination: 30 percent. Up five points; playing footsie with unions.
Bill Brady wins GOP nomination: 25 percent. Holding steady on relatively reasonable pension stance and the sole remaining GOPer who hasn't said or done something foolish.
Bruce Rauner wins GOP nomination: 15 percent. Up five points; lost support on political pension positioning overcome by filing deadline that erases possibility of hoped-for Mystery Candidate.
Rahm is re-elected: 64 percent. Up another point. His popularity goes down every day but his chances at winning another term go up every day without a challenger.
Toni Preckwinkle runs for mayor: 1 percent. She would win, but has already said no; never had the stomach for direct challenges to power.
Toni Preckwinkle is re-elected at County: 99 percent. Only a sudden onset of Tourette's can derail her now.
Lisa Madigan runs for mayor: 0 percent. Might win, but doesn't have the stomach for it; now waiting on 2018 guv race.
Kwame Raoul runs for mayor: 1 percent. Waiting on U.S. Senate.
Tom Dart runs for mayor: 1 percent. Has already said no; apparently doesn't have the stomach for it. But he's not gonna be "just" sheriff forever, is he?
Karen Lewis runs for mayor: 10 percent. If no one else will, she'll martyr herself but would prefer to find a real candidate to get behind.
David Orr runs for mayor: 0 percent. What happened? Too comfortable shuffling papers.
Timothy Evans runs for mayor: 0 percent. Too comfortable running courts - and not necessarily well.
Dan Hynes runs for mayor: 0 percent. Who? Plus, brother works for Rahm.
Edwin Eisendrath runs for mayor: 0 percent. Primaried Blago, but uninterested in electoral politics.
Terry Mazany runs for mayor: 0 percent. Doesn't have the stomach for it; too bad.
Patrick Fitzgerald runs for mayor: 0 percent. Too busy lawyering.
Roderick Sawyer runs for mayor: 5 percent. Rumblings for awhile but not the right messenger.
Bob Fioretti runs for mayor: 10 percent. Prefers Congress; also, see Sawyer.
Scott Waguespack runs for mayor: 5 percent. Real reform and competency but lacking citywide appeal.
Chuy Garcia runs for mayor: 5 percent. Possible default candidate but making no moves.
Mystery Candidate runs for mayor: 5 percent. Not one honest person among 3 million with courage to do so?
Maria Pappas runs for mayor: 0 percent. Just fishing for names now.
Sheila Simon is our next state comptroller: 3 percent. Loses two ticks on pension flip-flop; lite guv not looking so bad now.
Tom Cross is the GOP nominee for treasurer: 65 percent. Rough start.
Bob Grogan is the GOP nominee for treasurer: 35 percent. DuPage County Auditor is actually a CPA.
Mike Frerichs is our next state treasurer: 50 percent. Turnout for guv's race could tell the tale.
Robert Vanecko goes to trial: 2 percent. Up one tick; is nuclear defense for real or a bluff?.
Infrastructure Trust accomplishes something: 50 percent. From hurry up to what's the hurry.
Deb Mell casts a "No" vote: 0 percent. Unless the mayor asks her to.
Chicago gets a casino: 99%. At old Michael Reese site - Instead of the Olympics.
Chicago casino ends in disaster: 99%. I wouldn't say "ends" exactly because it will be unstoppable.
Joe Berrios is indicted: 50 percent. He's Joe Berrios. He probably already has his cell picked out.
Juan Rangel is indicted: 50 percent. He's Juan Rangel. He probably already has his cell picked out.
We'll ever know who hired Angelo Torres: 50 percent. Ed Burke is still around (hint, hint).
Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.
Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.
Michael Madigan is indicted: 2 percent. Maybe the Metra mess leads somewhere.
Dick Durbin wins re-election: 90 percent. Would've made a better president than Obama.
Jim Oberweis wins GOP nomination for U.S. Senate: 40 percent. Blame Ron Gidwitz.
Doug Truax wins GOP nomination for U.S. Senate: 60 percent. Despite money, hard to believe party will let Oberweis happen.
Mark Kirk wins re-election: 75 percent. Back to moderate roots.
Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.
Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.
Obama library goes anywhere other than U of C: 0 percent. Maybe branches elsewhere, but Axelrod's Institute is paving the path. Plus, Obama's an elitist.
Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2014. She likes to destroy, not maintain.
Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: June 2014. Likes Rush Street but mayor's fingers stuck up his back has to hurt.
Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Jason Ervin, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Patrick O'Connor.
Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending order, parlays available: John, Michael, Bill.
Rahm brother most likely to be indicted in descending order: Ari, Ezekiel.
Next city/county officeholder besides Berrios likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown reclaims top spot; then Stanley Moore, Karen Yarbrough, Maria Pappas.
Over/Under on how long Ventra cards last before system is scrapped: 6 months.
Over/Under on how many CPS schools are closed next year despite moratorium: 2.5. UPDATE: It will be 0 but 2 co-locations.
Posted on December 4, 2013
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