Chicago - Oct. 31, 2014
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Pat Quinn is re-elected: 52.5 percent. Down 2.5 ticks as race tightens nearing Election Day; slight but telling momentum swing reverses against him as late votes break Rauner's way.

Bruce Rauner is elected: 47.5 percent. Up 2.5 ticks, emerging from a horrible home stretch intact. Tireless candidate outworking Quinn; hasn't gotten attention for retail campaigning at seemingly every cafe and small manufacturer in the state.

Paul Vallas destroys Evelyn Sanguinetti in a debate: 50 percent. Only if the Rauner campaign allows her to attend; then 100 percent. No lite guv debate. Sanguinetti's unfitness to become governor in emergency never became an issue, sadly.

Vallas stays in LG job for a whole term: 50 percent. Only if he has designs on getting a promotion in four years - which presumably was why he joined the ticket.

column_pol_odds.gifRahm Emanuel is re-elected: 85 percent. Down 10 points on Chuy Garcia joining the race to nab votes that Fioretti doesn't get; remember, it's all about forcing a runoff now. But overall, Pat Quinn's luck rubbing off on him.

Chuy Garcia: 5 percent. Appears to have the blessings of Toni Preckwinkle and Karen Lewis, but starting late with little organization and less money.

Bob Fioretti is elected: 5 percent. Chuy hurts him, but remember, it's all about forcing a runoff now..

Toni Preckwinkle joins the race: 0 percent. Too loyal to party, too comfortable at County, too unwilling to directly challenge power. That's your tombstone, Toni.

Karen Lewis is elected: 0 percent. Not even CTU president anymore.

Dick Durbin is re-elected: 99 percent. Was vulnerable to the right opponent.

Judy Baar Topinka wins re-election: 95 percent. Media giving her a pass on Sheila Simon's only chance. If only she ordered a hot dog with ketchup.

Sheila Simon ever holds state office again: 0 percent. Dems won't even want to borrow her name anymore.

Tom Cross is our next treasurer: 80 percent. And possibly our next Republican nominee for governor.

Patrick Daley Thompson is the next 11th Ward alderman: 99 percent. Is he for or agin' Rahm? You never know, 'cause the Daleys are really only for the Daleys.

The city council is ready for reform: 14%. At best.

Bill Foster wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Brad Schneider wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Rodney Davis wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. See Foster, Schneider.

Lisa Madigan is re-elected state attorney general: 99 percent. Won't even need daddy's help to beat sacrificial Republican.

Anita Alvarez is re-elected: 90 percent. You can't beat an incompetent with nobody - especially in Crook County.

Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.

Michael Madigan is indicted: 2 percent. Maybe the Metra mess leads somewhere.

Richard M. Daley is indicted: 1 percent. The Great White Whale who got away.

Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.

Mark Kirk wins re-election: 20 percent. Turning into a raving lunatic before our eyes; Dems starting to line up.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Obama library goes anywhere other than U of C: 0 percent. Maybe branches elsewhere, but Axelrod's Institute is paving the path. Plus, Obama's an elitist.

Propositions
Over/Under on how many progressive aldermen Rahm takes out: 1.5.

Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: March 2015. Too close to election now.

Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2015. She wants out now, but has to coordinate departure with McCarthy.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Patrick O'Connor, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on October 31, 2014


MUSIC - The Weekend In Chicago Rock.
TV - Paul Lynde vs. Halloween.
POLITICS - The Political Odds.
SPORTS - The College Football Report: Huffing Paint & The HAL 9000. TrackNotes: Bacchanalia Binging.

BOOKS - Local Book Notes: Dirty Wars.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - Beachwood Photo Booth: Francisco Frankenstein.


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