For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.
The chance that . . .
Donald Trump wins the presidency: 100%. In his head, of course. But in reality, no more than 45%, which is still a helluva frightening thing. UPDATE: As of this writing, according to the Tribune, Trump has 47.8% - to Hillary Clinton's 48%. (Other estimates vary.) When all's said and done, Clinton will probably wind up with about 49% of the vote, meaning Republicans will have won the popular vote just once in the last seven presidential elections. But for no justifiable reason, America doesn't elect its president by popular vote, but through the Electoral College. Thus, President Trump.
Mark Kirk wins re-election to the U.S. Senate: 20%. Even the Gary Johnson-endorsing right-wing Tribune is backing Tammy Duckworth. Layers of irony in the fact that Trump has a better chance than Kirk, a once-respectable moderate Republican who has disintegrated into a clown show before our very eyes. UPDATE: Tammy Duckworth romped to a 54-40 win. She'll be vulnerable in six years.
Leslie Munger is re-elected state comptroller: 49%. The headwinds are all blue in Illinois, and challenger Susana Mendoza has the entirety of the Democratic Machine working on her behalf - plus an expected huge turnout by Hispanics thanks to Trump. And yet . . . UPDATE: The Dem Machine was too much for Munger, despite Bruce Rauner's bankroll; Mendoza 49-45. Now the question is what office is Mendoza really angling for.
The Safe Roads Amendment passes: 50%. It's a terrible idea, but it sounds good on a ballot and you never know what low-information voters will or won't do, including ignoring the question. UPDATE: Smart people know this is awful, but this wasn't a smart people's election; it passed with nearly 80% support.
Dorothy Brown is re-elected Cook County Clerk of the Circuit Court: 100%. And this tells us everything we need to know about Chicago politics and the Dem Machine. She's not even competent, negating the argument that at least our corrupt pols get the job done. No. UPDATE: Brown cruised to victory, as expected. Now, where's that indictment we're all expecting?
Kim Foxx is elected Cook County State's Attorney: 100%. No-brainer, though we still have doubts about just how good she'll be in this job - even though she'll be a huge improvement over the outgoing disaster. UPDATE: Foxx cruised to victory, as expected. Now, can she deliver?
Election Day results will shift the balance of power in Springfield: 75%. The Dems will get stronger, even if the status quo remains; pressure will be on the governor to actually pass a budget during his last two years in office. UPDATE: The GOP picked up three House seats and at least one Senate seat, which makes Mendoza's win all the more remarkable. But the now-vanished Dem supermajority was not a supermajority in practice due to a few non-complying members, so nothing has really changed - except perhaps Rauner's excuse.
Rauner gets the message: 10%. Persistence, he once said, is his greatest trait.
Rauner is re-elected in 2018: 10%. Only if he drastically changes his modus operandi over the next two years; even Republicans will see the need for a different approach.
Lisa Madigan runs for governor: 0 percent. Daddy isn't going anywhere.
Bill Daley runs for governor: 0 percent. But Sneed will float his name - he's serious this time!
Michael Madigan runs for governor: 0 percent. Just a thought experiment.
Rahm Emanuel runs for governor: 0 percent. Just a thought experiment.
Dick Durbin runs for governor: 0 percent. We had him at 50 percent last time out, but he's since put the kibosh on the whole thing. Too bad.
Arne Duncan runs for governor: 0 percent. We had him at 10 percent last time out, but he's since put the kibosh on the whole thing. Thankfully.
Toni Preckwinkle runs for governor: 5 percent. Down five ticks; only if she didn't have to campaign or travel to Springfield.
Christopher Kennedy runs for governor: 10 percent. Down 10 percent because he's already so not good at it.
Tom Dart runs for governor: 15 percent. Mayor more likely, but who knows, he's built quite a name for himself as Cook County sheriff.
Amaya Pawar runs for governor: 5 percent. He's running for something that isn't his aldermanic seat, but what? Governor too big a leap.
Mike Frerichs runs for governor: 15 percent. Down 10 percent because, who? Would be pushing his luck.
Andy Manar runs for governor: 25 percent. Putting himself out there on education funding, but down 10 percent because, who?
Heather Steans runs for governor: 25 percent. Up and coming, but down 10 percent because, who?
Daniel Biss runs for governor: 25 percent. Not quite yet.
Kwame Raoul runs for governor: 50 percent. Gaining gravitas.
Jesse White runs for governor: 1 percent. But why not? Affable, popular, unambitious and would probably just go along with what everybody wanted.
Jim Durkin runs for governor: 35 percent. Not distinguishing himself, but someone will have to if Rauner bails.
Adam Kinzinger runs for governor: 35 percent. Bailed on Trump, which will become a litmus test for all Republicans.
Matt Murphy runs for governor: 5 percent. Down 20 percent because he resigned from the state senate to join the private sector, but maybe he's putting some dough in the bank ahead of time?
Christine Radogno runs for governor: 10 percent. Might actually have a shot but has never expressed interest.
Pat Quinn runs for governor: 15 percent. Down 15 percent because please don't.
Rahm runs for re-election in 2019: 30 percent. A Clinton Administration job in the offing? He doesn't need this; only fueled by vengeance at this point. UPDATE: With no Clinton Administration job in the offing, Rahm is ever more likely to run for re-election. Thanks, Trump.
Preckwinkle runs for mayor: 5 percent. Seems to be setting up political heirs instead.
Karen Lewis runs for mayor: 1 percent. She didn't want to run last time.
Chuy Garcia runs for mayor: 1 percent. He didn't want to run last time.
Kurt Summers runs for mayor: 75 percent. He's already started, hasn't he? Unless he's running for governor, which seems unlikely.
Foxx runs for mayor: 35 percent. Depends on performance, Preckwinkle.
Bridget Gainer runs for mayor: 25 percent. Apparently considering it.
Dart runs for mayor: 55 percent. If not now, when? Instant frontrunner.
Troy LaRaviere runs for mayor: 10 percent. Being a spurned principal isn't enough.
Lisa Madigan runs for mayor: 10 percent. Only if Rahm wants her to.
Mike Quigley runs for mayor: 10 percent. Only if Rahm wants him to.
Ameya Pawar runs for mayor: 20 percent. Up 10 percent because what else is he running for?
Willie Wilson runs for mayor: 1 percent. Won't he still be president?
Bob Fioretti runs for mayor: 1 percent. Only if Willie Wilson bankrolls him.
Dock Walls runs for mayor: 100 percent. He's Dock Walls.
Pat Quinn runs for mayor: 5 percent. Please don't.
Richard Boykin runs for mayor: 5 percent. Down five percent as his profile rose and then fell.
John Daley runs for mayor: 10 percent. Someone has to restore the dynasty - and it's not gonna be Bill.
Patrick Daley Thompson runs for mayor: 20 percent. Someone has to restore the dynasty - and it's not gonna be Bill.
Vice Mayor Brendan Reilly runs for mayor: 10 percent. Access to money, but not a clear path. State office?
Mendoza runs for mayor: 10 percent. And abandon her dream job as state comptroller?
Andrea Zopp runs for mayor: 6 percent. In the discussion since Rahm invented a job for her.
Raoul runs for mayor: 25 percent. Up two more ticks; he could win, but eyes on a bigger prize?
Duncan runs for mayor: 15 percent. Down 20 percent; no clear path.
Forrest Claypool runs for mayor 10%. Only if Rahm leaves early and he's the incumbent.
Joe Berrios is indicted: 50 percent. Seems like just a matter of time, yet there he is, still a free man.
The Infrastructure Trust lasts another year: 15 percent. Down 10 percent. Is that thing still around?
The local media continues to ignore Homan Square: 100 percent. The psychology is just bizarre.
Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.
NEW! Donald Trump is impeached: 30 percent. He'll certainly commit impeachable acts, and soon. But will the GOP-controlled Congress have the guts to oust him? With Mike Pence waiting in the wings, perhaps.
Over/Under on the number of aldermen who will be indicted before the next election: 4. Up a half on rumbles of coming news.
Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Willie Cochran, Jason Ervin, Howard Brookins, Anthony Beale, Emma Mitts, Walter Burnett, George Cardenas, Carrie Austin, Danny Solis, Patrick O'Connor.
Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.
Daley relative most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Patrick Daley, Patrick Daley Thompson.
Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.
Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending probability: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.
Year Illinois has a budget in descending probability: 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016.
Posted on November 9, 2016
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