Chicago - Apr. 23, 2014
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Pat Quinn is re-elected: 65 percent. Down five ticks on the front Michael Shakman has opened; this could get ugly.

Bruce Rauner ever issues a clear position on any issue: 0 percent. He's even dropped the government union bosses rhetoric.

Bob Fioretti runs for mayor: 50 percent. Up a whopping 30 ticks on City Club speech and the simple fact that he's the next candidate up after deferrals by Karen Lewis, Toni Preckwinkle and Tom Dart.

Rahm Emanuel is re-elected: 85 percent. Fioretti has the right message, but is the wrong messenger.

column_pol_odds.gifBob Shaw is a shill: 90 percent. Someone friendly to Rahm surely put him up to this.

Toni Preckwinkle is re-elected at County: 99 percent. Only a sudden onset of Tourette's can derail her now.

Jim Oberweis defeats Dick Durbin: 1 percent. Wrong guy for a tough job.

All CPS schools have air conditioning by 2019: 1 percent. Unless all CPS schools are charters by then.

Chicago lands George Lucas's Star Wars Museum: 50 percent. Either way, we're suckers; either being used for leverage or will hand over millions in subsidies.

Chicago lands 2016 Dem convention: 50 percent. Either way, we're suckers.

Bill Foster wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Brad Schneider wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Rodney Davis wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. See Foster, Schneider.

The defeated Toni Berrios winds up on a public payroll: 99 percent. Otherwise, what's the point of being a Berrios?

Joe Berrios is indicted: 51 percent. Ruling on inspector general pushes him above 50 for the first time.

Lisa Madigan is re-elected state attorney general: 99 percent. Won't even need daddy's help to beat sacrificial Republican.

Tom Cross is our next state treasurer: 60 percent. Opens with more name recognition and juice than Dem opponent Mike Frerichs; could also get Rauner dollars.

Sheila Simon is our next state comptroller: 1 percent. Will get walloped by Judy Baar Topinka; lite guv not looking so bad now.

Juan Rangel is indicted: 60 percent. The ABCs of UNO should give feds multiple choices.

Anita Alvarez is re-elected: 90 percent. You can't beat an incompetent with nobody - especially in Cook County.

Anita Alvarez is prosecuted for misconduct: 10 percent. Feds would be remiss not to look, but Patrick Fitzgerald ain't around anymore.

Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.

Michael Madigan is indicted: 2 percent. Maybe the Metra mess leads somewhere.

Richard M. Daley is indicted: 1 percent. The Great White Whale who got away.

Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.

Mark Kirk wins re-election: 50 percent. Seems like his time is up.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Obama library goes anywhere other than U of C: 0 percent. Maybe branches elsewhere, but Axelrod's Institute is paving the path. Plus, Obama's an elitist.

Propositions
Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2014. She likes to destroy, not maintain.

Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: June 2014. Likes Rush Street but mayor's fingers stuck up his back has to hurt.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts, Patrick O'Connor.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder besides Berrios likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on April 23, 2014


MUSIC - The Chicago Cuatro Orchestra.
TV - Black Power TV.
POLITICS - The Political Odds.
SPORTS - Chicago Youth Boxing Club Not Really About The Boxing.

BOOKS - Branding The Pope.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - Honoring Hot Dog Richie's.


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