Chicago - Sep. 30, 2014
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Pat Quinn is re-elected: 55 percent. Holding steady as Rauner begins making mistakes and media loses patience with his issue-avoidance. Now the campaign is about Not Rauner, not Not Quinn.

Bruce Rauner is elected: 45 percent. Desperation not a good look; internal polls must not look good either.

Paul Vallas destroys Evelyn Sanguinetti in a debate: 50 percent. Only if the Rauner campaign allows her to attend; then 100 percent.

Rauner campaign plays gender card after said destruction: 100 percent. Will probably cut an ad with Diana - though not Ditka.

column_pol_odds.gifRahm Emanuel is re-elected: 80 percent. Down another five ticks for missing the point.

Bob Fioretti is elected: 20 percent. Better organized than expected, at least in the early-going.

Karen Lewis is elected: 0 percent. She's still not running yet, even though she is. We'll wait.

Fioretti and Lewis eventually team up: 50 percent. Depends on whether one in the race can beat Rahm outright or two in the race can force him into a runoff; defeating Rahm is ultimate goal so political calculation will be made.

Judy Baar Topinka wins re-election: 95 percent. Media giving her a pass on Sheila Simon's only chance.

Sheila Simon ever holds state office again: 1%. Maybe not even dog catcher - unless a Dem needs to borrow her name again.

Tom Cross is our next treasurer: 80 percent. Up 10 ticks; Frerichs is a disaster.

Obama helps Quinn: 50 percent. Might not want to campaign with the president in Latino districts.

Patrick Daley Thompson is the next 11th Ward alderman: 99 percent. More groundwork laid already than Fioretti or Lewis mayoral runs.

The city council is ready for reform: 14%. At best.

Dick Durbin is re-elected: 99 percent. Even if Oberweis makes a race of it (doubtful), he'll self-destruct gloriously.

Bill Foster wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Brad Schneider wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Rodney Davis wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. See Foster, Schneider.

Lisa Madigan is re-elected state attorney general: 99 percent. Won't even need daddy's help to beat sacrificial Republican.

Anita Alvarez is re-elected: 90 percent. You can't beat an incompetent with nobody - especially in Crook County.

Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.

Michael Madigan is indicted: 2 percent. Maybe the Metra mess leads somewhere.

Richard M. Daley is indicted: 1 percent. The Great White Whale who got away.

Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.

Mark Kirk wins re-election: 20 percent. Down another five ticks for turning into a raving lunatic before our eyes; this seat is vulnerable, Dems.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Obama library goes anywhere other than U of C: 0 percent. Maybe branches elsewhere, but Axelrod's Institute is paving the path. Plus, Obama's an elitist.

Propositions
Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: March 2015. Too close to election now.

Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2015. She wants out now, but has to coordinate departure with McCarthy.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Patrick O'Connor, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on September 26, 2014


MUSIC - The Weekend In Chicago Rock
TV - Windy City Live Co-Host Confused About Hitting Her Kid.
POLITICS - Beachwood Radio Hour: Beat Up On Brucey Week.
SPORTS - SportsMonday: The Rivalry Is Dead. The College Football Report: Army To Amway. The White Sox Report: Ode To 2014.

BOOKS - Local Book Notes: Gangstanomics.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - Dairy Queen vs. Sandwich.


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