Chicago - Oct. 20, 2017
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Rauner is re-elected: 35%. Dems give him a budget that saves the state that he also gets to veto to save face. But so far a massive failure.

J.B. Pritzker gets the Dem nomination: 45%. Putative frontrunner has the bucks, but a dispiriting candidacy.

column_pol_odds.gifChris Kennedy gets the Dem nomination: 20 percent. Down 10 ticks, because geez! Bumbling alternative to Pritzker only barely plausible because of pocketbook.

Daniel Biss gets the Dem nomination: 25 percent. True progressive-ish alternative could roll up the anti-billionaire vote.

Ameya Pawar gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Unless everyone else flames out; he'll work hard, but please.

Scott Drury gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Wrong year for an anti-Madigan platform; we need him on that wall.

Bob Daiber gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Who?

Alex Paterakis gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Who?

Tio Hardiman gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. At this point, can't even get a job. Wrong way to rebuild a career, unless your career goal is to be the next Dock Walls.

Lisa Madigan gets the Dem nomination: 100 percent. If Daddy wasn't standing in her way. Maybe her and Rauner have something to bond over after all.

Bill Daley gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. But Sneed will float his name - he's serious this time!

Dick Durbin gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. He would've won if he ran.

Toni Preckwinkle gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. She would've won if she ran.

Tom Dart gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. He would've won if he ran. Boy the Dems have a second-tier field.

Rahm runs for re-election in 2019: 55 percent. Up 25 ticks with no Clinton Administration job in the offing. Thanks, Trump.

Preckwinkle runs for mayor: 0 percent. Seems to be setting up political heirs instead.

Karen Lewis runs for mayor: 0 percent. She didn't want to run last time.

Chuy Garcia runs for mayor: 1 percent. He didn't want to run last time, though supposedly gearing up.

Kurt Summers runs for mayor: 45 percent. He's running for something, but unlikely to challenge Rahm.

Scott Waguespack runs for mayor: 30 percent. Tougher field than last two times; hasn't built citywide appeal.

John Arena runs for mayor: 30 percent. Hasn't built citywide appeal - and any alderman looking to make this jump has to become better known as Rahm's chief antagonist.

Roderick Sawyer runs for mayor 1 percent. Those rumors have settled down, thankfully; incredibly thin record to run on.

Kim Foxx runs for mayor: 10 percent. Down another 15 ticks on lackluster start; too soon.

Bridget Gainer runs for mayor: 25 percent. Apparently considering it, and field needs a woman, but willing to challenge Rahm?

Dart runs for mayor: 55 percent. If not now, when?

Troy LaRaviere runs for mayor: 10 percent. Being a spurned principal isn't enough.

Lisa Madigan runs for mayor: 10 percent. Only if Rahm wants her to.

Mike Quigley runs for mayor: 10 percent. Only if Rahm wants him to.

Ameya Pawar runs for mayor: 20 percent. Unlikely to challenge Rahm, but maybe run for governor is a tryout.

Willie Wilson runs for mayor: 1 percent. Won't he still be president?

Bob Fioretti runs for mayor: 1 percent. Only if Willie Wilson bankrolls him.

Dock Walls runs for mayor: 100 percent. He's Dock Walls.

Pat Quinn runs for mayor: 5 percent. Please don't.

Richard Boykin runs for mayor: 5 percent. Was making noise but has quieted down.

Garry McCarthy runs for mayor: 5 percent. Not enough Trump wards.

Chance The Rapper runs for mayor: 0 percent. No.

John Daley runs for mayor: 10 percent. Someone has to restore the dynasty - and it's not gonna be Bill.

Patrick Daley Thompson runs for mayor: 20 percent. Someone has to restore the dynasty - and it's not gonna be Bill.

Vice Mayor Brendan Reilly runs for mayor: 10 percent. Access to money, but not a clear path. State office?

Mendoza runs for mayor: 10 percent. Only if Rahm wants her to.

Andrea Zopp runs for mayor: 6 percent. In the discussion since Rahm invented a job for her.

Raoul runs for mayor: 25 percent. He could win, but eyes on a bigger prize?

Joe Berrios is indicted: 50 percent. Seems like just a matter of time, yet there he is, still a free man.

The Infrastructure Trust lasts another year: 5 percent. Down 10 percent. Is that thing still around?

The local media continues to ignore Homan Square: 100 percent. The psychology is just bizarre.

Donald Trump is impeached: 100 percent. Nearly inconceivable he lasts four years.

Propositions
Over/Under on how many police officers the feds indict in the Laquan McDonald case: 5. Convicted? That's another question. (UPDATE: 3 now indicted.)

Over/Under on the number of aldermen who will be indicted before the next election: 4. Up a half on rumbles of coming news.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Willie Cochran [done!], Jason Ervin, Howard Brookins, Anthony Beale, Emma Mitts, Walter Burnett, George Cardenas, Carrie Austin, Danny Solis, Patrick O'Connor.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Daley relative most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Patrick Daley, Patrick Daley Thompson.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending probability: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on July 4, 2017


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POLITICS - Trump's Farmer Heavily Subsidized.
SPORTS - Beachwood Sports Radio: Maddon's Lousy Playoff Managing Exceeds Playoff Pleasure

BOOKS - Dots & Dashes.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - Chicagoetry: My Bastard Heart.


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