Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Alexi Giannoulias wins Dem Senate nomination: 50 percent. Down 15 ticks for a poorly run campaign. Broadway Bank is still an albatross. What does White House know that we don't?

David Hoffman wins Dem Senate nomination: 35 percent. Up another 15 ticks with clear momentum. But Alexi must continue to implode.

Cheryle Jackson wins Dem Senate nomination: 15 percent. Holding steady as the only African American and the only woman in the race - and a back-up to the bickering men.

Mark Kirk wins Senate seat: 45 percent. Up 10 ticks despite his classless pivot to the right based on Massachusetts canary.

Dick Durbin wins re-election next time: 50 percent. Blood in the water for first time. But also chance to become majority leader because Harry Reid is going down.

Pat Quinn wins nomination: 40 percent. And sinking. Inept State of the State and devastating Harold Washington ad lower the boom.

Dan Hynes wins nomination: 60 percent. Inept State of the State and devastating Harold Washington ad make Quinn's competence the centerpiece of the race. And if that's the argument, Hynes wins.

Pat Quinn wins the general election: 40 percent. Down 10 ticks as incompetence meme spreads. Easy to run against, though; the commercials are already scripted.

Dan Hynes wins the general election: 60 percent. Still a blue state and inevitability will settle in.

Kirk Dillard wins the GOP nomination: 10 percent. Up six ticks. No clear rationale behind his candidacy but some forces are inexplicably coalescing around him.

Andy McKenna wins the GOP nomination: 4 percent. Remains steady as beady and unlikable.

Adam Andrzejewski wins the GOP nomination: 5 percent. Down 10 ticks as early magic continues to fade. Where are you, Adam?

Jim Ryan wins the GOP nomination: 50 percent. Holding on to instant front-runner status and, amazingly, the relative moderate in the race.

Bill Brady wins the GOP nomination: 15 percent. Positioned as the real conservative, but still lacking the magic and losing support to Proft.

Dan Proft wins the GOP nomination: 15 percent. A little leap based on clever campaigning and the Massachusetts canary. Could surprise.

Bob Schillerstrom wins the GOP nomination: 1 percent. Who? UPDATE: Schillerstrom has dropped out. His 1 percent goes to Ryan.

Blago cuts a deal: 1 percent. Doesn't know how even if he wanted to.

Blago is convicted: 99 percent. Slight chance he gets mob to buy the jury.

Blago wins The Apprentice: 100 percent. If The Donald has his way - and he will.

Patti Blago is indictable: 100 percent. That's not the point.

Obama wins re-election: 40 percent. Down 10 ticks. The right hates him, the left hates him, and the center hasn't decided is deserting him. When you try to please everyone, you please no one. When you stand for everything, you stand for nothing. Irony: If he did what he said he'd do, he'd be looking at a landslide.

Todd Stroger wins Dem primary: 20 percent. Down 15 ticks. Attack-the-media strategy not working. But this is still Cook County.

Todd Stroger will be taken care of with a nice cushy consolation prize if he loses: 98 percent. This is still Cook County.

Dorothy Brown wins Dem primary: 15 percent. Up 14 ticks on possibility of landing campaign contributions from Levi's.

Toni Preckwinkle wins Dem primary: 58 percent. Up ten ticks on strength of solid campaign; her race to lose.

Terry O'Brien wins county board prez: 7 percent. Up six ticks as Brown and Stroger implode, but not the right year to run as the white guy; especially a Machine white guy.

A Republican wins county board prez: 10 percent. They're on the board! Meet Roger Keats.

Richard M. Daley is lying: 100 percent. If his lips are moving.

Richard M. Daley loses next re-election bid: 10 percent. No challenger in site but parking meters could equal Bilandic's snow disaster.

Jody Weis lasts another year: 25 percent. Holds steady as expectations begin to match performance.

Huberman being groomed for mayor: 35 percent. Not Daley's style to groom.

Obama commutes George Ryan's sentence: 50 percent. Application still active; hey, he won't pursue war criminals, might want to turn the page.

Joe Biden resigns after the mid-term elections: 75 percent. He's already bored out of his skull; Obama can choose successor. Probably someone from Chicago.

Propositions
Over/Under on number of Daley pals indicted in next nine years if we [don't] host the Olympics: 5.

Over/Under on number of projects in the next year that will be framed as replacing the Olympics: 5.

Over/Under on number of times Daley will apologize for meters in next six months: 3.

Over/Under on number of critical reports from federal agencies Daley will dismiss in 2010: 6.

Over/Under on City Hall scandals in 2010 that "might be the one that breaks Daley's back" but won't be: 3.

Over/Under on how many issues Daley accuses his opponents of being racists on before the next election: 2.

Over/Under on how many more times Todd Stroger will try to explain that it's the media's fault: 3 times a week until he's out of office.

Over/Under on Hired Truck convictions: 51. Number moves south, too much under action. So far, 49 have been charged; 46 have been convicted; and one fell off a horse and died before trial.