Chicago - Mar. 20, 2018
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Bruce Rauner gets the GOP nomination for governor: 60 percent. Down 15 ticks on apathetic Rauner voters, but not sure I'm buying the Jeanne Ives surge.

Jeanne Ives gets the GOP nomination: 40 percent. She's nuts, but she'll take a chunk out of Rauner's hide.

Bruce Rauner is re-elected in the general: 28.5 percent. This is a change election, and Rauner ironically is the one offering the quite-unpopular status quo.

The Dem nominee wins the governorship: 68.5 percent. It's gonna be a Dem year, let's face it.

Sam McCann, running as an independent, wins the governorship: 3 percent. But let's see if he brings it.

column_pol_odds.gifJ.B. Pritzker gets the Dem nomination: 55%. Up five ticks on street money and statewide organization.

Daniel Biss gets the Dem nomination: 25 percent. If confronting Rauner in most cynical manner possible wasn't paramount to so many, he could pull it off. Wrong year.

Chris Kennedy gets the Dem nomination: 20 percent. Down five ticks on poor GOTV apparatus.

Chuy Garcia gets the Dem nomination to replace Luis Gutierrez for Congress: 95 percent. The fix is in.

Sol Flores gets the Dem nomination: 5 percent. A successful social services leader who happens to be a woman sure sounds good; the grassroots candidate. But the fix is in.

Dan Lipinski (D-His Dad) gets the Dem nomination for re-election to Congress: 47 percent. The tide may have finally turned in this district; nip-and-tuck with Marie Newman.

Mike Quigley (D-Hockey) gets the Dem nomination for re-election to Congress: 90 percent. But Sameena Mustafa is an intriguing newcomer.

Toni Preckwinkle gets the Dem nomination for Cook County Board President: 50.1 percent. A stunningly close race is apparently unfolding, though we're still in disbelief around here. Just because of the soda tax? Bob Fioretti? Voters are dumb.

Bob Fioretti gets the Dem nomination: 49.9 percent. Already regretting this because those polls sound like bullshit. In Vegas they've taken this one off the board. Could just as easily be a Preckwinkle blowout; a Fioretti win would be a total disaster, even if TP is with Berrios.

Joe Berrios gets the Dem nomination for Cook County Assessor: 45 percent. His time is through, but it could be agonizingly close.

Fritz Kaegi gets the Dem nomination: 55 percent. Needs GOTV to match Berrios' organization; editorial boards not enough.

Andrea Raila gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. No business being in this race at this point.

Kwame Raoul gets the Dem nomination for state attorney general: 45 percent. Early frontrunner with the best resume, but has run a terrible campaign.

Pat Quinn gets the Dem nomination: 45 percent. Up 45 ticks because like so much else on the board here, we just can't believe it.

Jesse Ruiz gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Lackluster civil servant failed to separate himself from the field.

Sharon Fairley gets the Dem nomination: 10 percent. Voters still don't know who she is; record spotty but set up for future run for office.

Renato Mariotti gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Never caught fire the way his Twitter feed has.

Nancy Rotering gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Got some early support, weirdly, but big step up from Highland Park mayor.

Aaron Goldstein gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Positioned himself as the progressive - boy everyone wants that label these days - but former Blagojevich defense lawyer is not a great credential.

Scott Drury gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Last-minute million-dollar spend not enough.

Rahm wins re-election: 70 percent. You can't beat evil with nobody.

Lori Lightfoot gets elected mayor: 15 percent. First she has to decide to do it - and it's way past a little late.

Troy LaRaviere gets elected mayor: 10 percent. Being a spurned principal, no matter how good you were at your job, isn't enough.

Bridget Gainer gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Spending your time at your Aon day job instead of your Cook County board member side job not a great path to victory.

Scott Waguespack gets elected mayor: 5 percent. Best council antagonist, but citizenry too uninformed. Would CTU and others rally around?

Garry McCarthy gets elected mayor: 0 percent. 16 shots.

Chance The Rapper gets elected mayor: 0 percent. No.


Over/Under on number of aldermen who will be indicted before the next election: 4. Hurry up, feds, transcribe those tapes!

Over/Under on number of aldermen currently wearing a wire: 1.5. There's always at least one.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Jason Ervin, Howard Brookins, Anthony Beale, Emma Mitts, Walter Burnett, George Cardenas, Carrie Austin, Danny Solis, Patrick O'Connor.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Daley relative most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Patrick Daley, Patrick Daley Thompson.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending probability: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.


Comments welcome.


Posted on March 20, 2018

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