Chicago - Feb. 10, 2016
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Rahm Emanuel doesn't return from Cuba: 10 percent. Maybe, knowing something we don't, he seeks asylum.

Emanuel resigns: 40 percent. Holidays take some of the pressure off; still, one more revelation that doesn't go his way could tip him over.

Anita Alvarez resigns: 1 percent. With upcoming election, may as well ride it out.

Anita Alvarez wins the Democratic primary: 20 percent. Actually up 10 ticks; base support hasn't wavered and Donna More could siphon votes from Kim Foxx. March is a long way off.

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Rahm will run for re-election in 2019: 50 percent. 40 percent of that is just out of spite; now he's really got something to prove.

Toni Preckwinkle runs for mayor in 2019: 1 percent. She had her chance; now she's setting up her heirs.

Karen Lewis runs for mayor in 2019: 1 percent. She didn't want to run this time.

Chuy Garcia runs for mayor in 2019: 1 percent. He didn't want to run this time.

Willie Wilson runs for mayor in 2019: 1 percent. Won't he still be president?

Bob Fioretti runs for mayor in 2019: 1 percent. Only if Willie Wilson bankrolls him.

Dock Walls runs for mayor in 2019: 100 percent.

Kurt Summers runs for mayor in 2019: 75 percent. He already is, isn't he?

Bridget Gainer runs for mayor in 2019: 25 percent. Apparently considering it.

Tom Dart runs for mayor in 2019: 40 percent. Could be formidable.

Lisa Madigan runs for mayor in 2019: 10 percent. That's the rumor, but is that the job she really wants?

Pat Quinn runs for mayor in 2019: 5 percent. He's gonna run for something again - just watch.

Richard Boykin runs for mayor in 2019: 10 percent. He's running for something.

John Fritchey runs for mayor in 2019: 5 percent. Too many people don't like him.

John Daley runs for mayor in 2019: 10 percent. Someone has to restore the dynasty - and it's not gonna be Bill.

Patrick Daley Thompson runs for mayor in 2019: 20 percent. Someone has to restore the dynasty - and it's not gonna be Bill.

Vice Mayor Brendan Reilly runs for mayor in 2019: 10 percent. Would that be a re-election bid after Rahm steps down?

Susana Mendoza runs for mayor in 2019: 10 percent. And abandon her dream job as state comptroller?

Andrea Zopp runs for mayor in 2019: 10 percent. She's not gonna be a U.S. Senator, so . . .

Arne Duncan runs for mayor in 2019: 35 percent. A run for governor more likely.

Bruce Rauner turns around Illinois: 0 percent. Would have to turn around Michael Madigan first.

Lisa Madigan runs for governor in 2018: 0 percent. Would have to turn around Michael Madigan first.

Bruce Rauner runs for re-election in 2018: 50 percent. Bored rich guys always hard to figure; better question: Will he have passed a budget by then?

Pat Quinn runs for governor in 2018: 30 percent. Please don't.

Bill Daley runs for governor in 2018: 0 percent. But that won't stop Sneed from spreading the rumor.

Tammy Duckworth wins the Dem nomination for U.S. Senate: 65 percent. Her practically silent non-campaign is more productive than the offensiveness of Andrea Zopp.

Mark Kirk wins the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate: 55 percent. Still thinking he could get indicted first. Software consultant James Marter appears to be his only opponent.

Mark Kirk wins re-election to the U.S. Senate: 25 percent. Once-respected moderate now a blustery gaffe machine.

Dick Durbin runs for re-election in 2020: 50 percent. Tireless but he'll be 76 and he just lost his shot at majority leader.

Bobby Rush wins re-election: 45 percent. Howard Brookins (ugh) is making his move in the primary, but Rush still has a strong base.

Danny Davis wins re-election: 80 percent. Sadly, no real competition.

Dorothy Brown wins her primary re-election: 10 percent. She might be in jail by then.

Michelle Harris beats Brown: 70 percent. She's the Machine's new candidate.

Jacob Meister beats Brown and Harris: 30 percent. He's the reformer.

Bob Fioretti wins his state rep race: 50 percent. Only because Chicago.

DOJ places CPD under a consent decree: 90 percent. Unless Rahm pulls enough strings.

Michael Madigan is the worse for wear: 1 percent. Nobody likes him, but now everybody needs him.

Joe Berrios is indicted: 50 percent. Seems like just a matter of time, yet there he is, still a free man.

Obama Library goes to Washington Park: 50 percent. Seems like this was decided a long time ago.

Obama Library goes to Jackson Park: 50 percent. Washington Park a diversion; Jackson Park more ready-made.

The Star Wars museum gets built: 80 percent. Only the courts can stop it now.

The Star Wars museum gets built on time: 1 percent. Only if a rogue contractor finds the one weakness in the Chicago Death Star.

The Infrastructure Trust lasts another year: 75 percent. Just out of spite.

The local media continues to ignore Homan Square: 100 percent. The psychology is just bizarre.

Barack and Michelle return to Chicago: 0 percent. They may visit if one of their kids somehow, some way, gets into the University of Chicago, though.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Propositions
Over/Under on Rahm's current approval rating: 6 percent. UPDATE: It's supposedly 18. We don't believe that.

Over/Under on how many police officers the feds indict in the Laquan McDonald case: 10.

Over/Under on how long DOJ is here: 12 months.

Over/Under on the number of aldermen who will be indicted before the next election: 3.5.

Over/Under on how many months Forrest Claypool serves as CPS CEO: 12. But where to next - Streets and San?

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Patrick O'Connor, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Daley relative most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Patrick Daley, Patrick Daley Thompson.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending probability: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

Year Illinois has a budget in descending probability: 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on December 21, 2015


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