Chicago - Nov. 19, 2018
Music TV Politics Sports Books People Places & Things
 
Beachwood Politics
Our monthly archive.
Who We Are
Chicago by the numbers.
Sausage Links
Wiki Daley
Wiki Rahm
Illinois Channel
CAN TV
Ralph Martire
Doonesbury
Government Attic
Division Street
Indie Political Report
The Obameter
ProPublica
The Intercept
SCOTUS Blog
American Dream Betrayed

Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Toni Preckwinkle gets elected mayor: 50 percent. Her calling card is competence, not reform, but lackluster campaign is stumbling early.

Susana Mendoza gets elected mayor: 45 percent. Rahm 3.0; now the scrutiny begins and it won't be pretty.

Bill Daley gets elected mayor: 3 percent. Dude can raise money, but lackluster campaign is bumbling early.

column_pol_odds.gifLori Lightfoot gets elected mayor: 1 percent. Preckwinkle's entry all but wipes her out, but the true progressive among the bigfoots. Too bad.

Amara Enyia gets elected mayor: 1 percent. Wins the Chance The Rapper lottery; before that had $60 in campaign fund.

Gery Chico gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Relatively impressive early fundraising, but where do the votes come from?

Garry McCarthy gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Rahm was his foil; now he's the 16 shots candidate.

Paul Vallas gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Fading into oblivion.

Willie Wilson gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Can pull just enough black votes to wreak havoc, but not nearly enough to make a runoff.

Dorothy Brown gets elected mayor: 0 percent. See Willie Wilson.

Troy LaRaviere gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Campaign that never really got started is over. He's out.

LaShawn Ford gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Will he even get on the ballot?

Bob Fioretti gets elected mayor: 0 percent. See LaShawn Ford.

Neal Sales-Griffin gets elected mayor: 0 percent. No Sale-Griffin.

Ja'Mal Green gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Dude.

John Kozlar gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Doesn't even have name recognition in his own family.

Matthew Roney gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Out.

Dock Walls gets elected mayor: -99 percent. I thought you moved on to selling t-shirts in Arizona or something?

William Kelly gets elected mayor: -100 percent. Loath to even include this attention-seeking muppet here.

Amazon chooses Chicago: 1 percent. Down nine ticks; not in the final five unless leaks are a giant head-fake. UPDATE 11/14: Not even close. Like Troy LaRaviere in the mayor's race, Chicago is out.

Elon Musk's O'Hare tunnel gets built: 10 percent. Rahm was his lifeline; now his lonely eyes turn to Susana Mendoza.

Rahm runs for president: 0 percent. Of CNN, maybe.

The next city council acts like a legislative body: 50 percent. If the mayor is woman of color not named Mendoza, the council will assert itself.

-

Propositions

Over/Under on number of aldermen who will be indicted before the next city council election: 4. Hurry up, feds, transcribe those tapes!

Over/Under on number of aldermen currently wearing a wire: 1.5. There's always at least one.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Jason Ervin, Howard Brookins, Anthony Beale, Emma Mitts, Walter Burnett, George Cardenas, Carrie Austin, Danny Solis, Patrick O'Connor.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Daley relative most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Patrick Daley, Patrick Daley Thompson.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending probability: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

Over/Under on how long Janice Jackson lasts as CPS CEO: 20 months. The only question is what will force her out.

Over/Under on how long Eddie Johnson lasts as CPD Supt.: 20 months. The only question is what will force him out.

-

Comments welcome.



Permalink

Posted on November 14, 2018


MUSIC - Spring Awakening Wake-Up Call!
TV - Exclusive! Rahm's New TV Gig.
POLITICS - The Political Odds UPDATED.
SPORTS - Cody Parkey Is Back!

BOOKS - Stan Lee, Flawed Hero.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - God, Ranked.


Search The Beachwood Reporter

Subscribe To Our Newsletter
Email:

Follow BeachwoodReport on Twitter



Beachwood Radio!


Ask Me Anything!