Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Rahm persuades every Chicago school to extend its day: 90 percent. He's got a lot of walking-around money to dispense.

Rahm names Daley while describing what a mess he inherited: 1 percent. Sometimes he slips when he goes into a finger-pointing rage.

Rahm is ordered to attend anger management courses at some point in his first term: 25 percent. Only if he smashes a Gatorade cooler instead of smashing the teachers' union.

The city council displays a new independence under Rahm: 100 percent. They no longer do what Daley tells them to do.

Rahm pushes through a grid garbage-collection system: 90 percent. Message to aldermen: Get on the grid or go home.

Rahm puts more cops on the streets: 50 percent. More likely to just extend their workday.

Rahm gets to the bottom of who knew what about Jon Burge and when: 10 percent. He likes to look forward, not back. Except when it comes to teacher contracts.

Rahm gets to the bottom of the David Koschman case: 10 percent. He likes to look forward, not back. Except in his monthly reviews of his own performance.

R.J. Vanecko comes clean about Koschman: 1 percent. Only under oath, and maybe not even then.

Jean-Claude Brizard is the Rahm appointment most likely to be indicted: 75 percent. Cheating on your resume is the first step. On the other hand, Forrest Claypool is due.

Pat Quinn vetoes the casino bill: 50 percent. His words are usually the opposite of his actions.

Joe Walsh gets indicted: 25 percent. No jury of Everymen would convict anyway!

Blago spills on other pols in exchange for a lighter sentence: 5 percent. Too late. Besides, de don't know nuthin'.

Blago ends up in a mental health hospital: 50 percent. He's nuts but is he broken?

Blago appears before Judge Judy: 50 percent. Will take jailhouse dispute all the way to syndicated television..

Blago gets his own prison radio show: 50 percent. Only the warden stands in the way.

WLS-AM picks up Blago's prison radio show: 99 percent. Are you kidding? In a heartbeat.

Richard M. Daley is indicted before he leaves office: 1 percent. There's still time! But they'll probably get him for perjury in 20 years a la Jon Burge. UPDATE: Damn.

Pat Quinn is indicted: 25 percent. Has lost the benefit of the doubt.

We'll ever know who hired Angelo Torres: 50 percent. Ed Burke is still around (hint, hint). Then again, Rahm likes to look forward, not back.

Ed Burke is indicted: 15 percent. Talk about buffers.

Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.

Joe Berrios is indicted: 50 percent. He's Joe Berrios. He probably already has his cell picked out.

Michael Madigan is indicted: 1 percent. He plays by the rules that encourage venality but not criminality.

Rahm is re-elected: 90 percent. If he wants it. The Daley Obama Axelrod Chamber of Commerce White Guys And Machine Minorities Yuppie Amenity Coalition will make sure of it.

Rahm runs for something else in four years: 50 percent. Could be eight, though he's probably not that patient. Remember, his real dream is to be Speaker of the House, though he may now be thinking about the presidency. A governor or senator first?

Scott Waguespack challenges Rahm in four years: 15 percent. Only if Rahm's crimes are particularly grievous.

Toni Preckwinkle challenges Rahm in four years: 0 percent. She'll wait for him to leave..

Joe Berrios challenges Rahm in four years: 0 percent. He'll wait for him to leave.

Miguel del Valle becomes the city's voice of reform: 50 percent. Only if the media pays attention.

Obama wins re-election: 45 percent. Republican field as hapless as Alan Keyes.

Propositions
Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following Ed Burke, Patrick O'Connor, Tom Tunney, James Balcer, George Cardenas.

Next Daley pal/relative likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from among the following: Michael Tadin, Robert Vanecko, R.J. Vanecko, Patrick Daley, Terry Newman, Billy Dec. Or you can take the Vanecko family against the field.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted, parlay in ascending order: Bill, John, Richard, Michael.

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