Chicago - Aug. 30, 2016
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Illinois has a stopgap budget before the November elections: 50%. A deal is there to be had - for a governor savvier than Bruce Rauner.

The November elections will shift the balance of power in Springfield: 75%. The Dems will get stronger.

Rauner admits defeat - or declares victory - and moves on: 0%. Persistence, he once said, is his greatest trait.

column_pol_odds.gifRauner is re-elected in 2018: 0%. It's only going to get worse - four years without a budget is tough to run on.

Rauner turns around Illinois: 0 percent. Would have to turn around Michael Madigan first.

Lisa Madigan runs for governor: 0 percent. Would have to turn around Michael Madigan first.

Dick Durbin runs for governor: 50 percent. Dems fantasy candidate may have finally gone as he can in Washington.

Christopher Kennedy runs for governor: 20 percent. Big name, big bucks, thin resume.

Arne Duncan runs for governor: 10 percent. Anathema to labor, progressives.

Toni Preckwinkle runs for governor: 15 percent. Only if she didn't have to campaign or travel to Springfield.

Paul Vallas runs for governor: 10 percent. Too many ghosts.

Mike Frerichs runs for governor: 25 percent. Would be pushing his luck.

Andy Manar runs for governor: 35 percent. Putting himself out there on education funding.

Heather Steans runs for governor: 35 percent. Up and coming.

Daniel Biss runs for governor: 25 percent. Not quite yet.

Kwame Raoul runs for governor: 50 percent. Gaining gravitas.

Jesse White runs for governor: 1 percent. But why not? Affable, popular, unambitious and would probably just go along with what everybody wanted.

Jim Durkin runs for governor: 35 percent. Not distinguishing himself, but someone will have to if Rauner bails.

Adam Kinzinger runs for governor: 35 percent. He just took himself out of the presidential race, so he's available.

Matt Murphy runs for governor: 25 percent. Better bench player.

Christine Radogno runs for governor: 10 percent. Might actually have a shot but has never expressed interest.

Pat Quinn runs for governor: 30 percent. Please don't.

Bill Daley runs for governor: 0 percent. But that won't stop Sneed from spreading the rumor.

Rahm runs for re-election in 2019: 30 percent. Down another 10 ticks. He doesn't need this; only fueled by vengeance at this point.

Toni Preckwinkle runs for mayor: 1 percent. She had her chance; now she's setting up her heirs.

Karen Lewis runs for mayor: 1 percent. She didn't want to run this time.

Chuy Garcia runs for mayor: 1 percent. He didn't want to run this time.

Kurt Summers runs for mayor: 75 percent. He's already started, hasn't he?

Kim Foxx runs for mayor: 35 percent. Depends on performance, Preckwinkle.

Bridget Gainer runs for mayor: 25 percent. Apparently considering it.

Tom Dart runs for mayor: 55 percent. Up five ticks; might be frontrunner.

Troy LaRaviere runs for mayor: 10 percent. Getting hype, but being a spurned principal isn't enough.

Lisa Madigan runs for mayor: 10 percent. That's the rumor, but is that the job she really wants? We think no.

Mike Quigley runs for mayor: 10 percent. Only if the field is clear, and probably not even then.

Ameya Pawar runs for mayor: 10 percent. He's running for something, but we're not sure what yet.

Willie Wilson runs for mayor: 1 percent. Won't he still be president?

Bob Fioretti runs for mayor: 1 percent. Only if Willie Wilson bankrolls him.

Dock Walls runs for mayor: 100 percent. He's Dock Walls.

Pat Quinn runs for mayor: 5 percent. He's gonna run for something again - just watch.

Richard Boykin runs for mayor: 10 percent. He's running for something. Every day.

John Fritchey runs for mayor: 5 percent. Too many people don't like him.

John Daley runs for mayor: 10 percent. Someone has to restore the dynasty - and it's not gonna be Bill.

Patrick Daley Thompson runs for mayor: 20 percent. Someone has to restore the dynasty - and it's not gonna be Bill.

Vice Mayor Brendan Reilly runs for mayor: 10 percent. Would that be a re-election bid after Rahm steps down?

Susana Mendoza runs for mayor: 10 percent. And abandon her dream job as state comptroller?

Andrea Zopp runs for mayor: 6 percent. Up one tick since Rahm invented a job for her.

Kwame Raoul runs for mayor: 23 percent. Up five ticks; he could win, but is he eyeing the governor's mansion?

Arne Duncan runs for mayor: 35 percent. The neoliberal dream is over, dude.

Dorothy Brown completes her term: 10 percent. In jail cell.

DOJ places CPD under a consent decree: 90 percent. Unless Rahm pulls enough strings.

Michael Madigan is the worse for wear: 1 percent. Nobody likes him, but now everybody needs him.

Forrest Claypool is the police chief one year from now: 50%. Eddie Johnson is same ol', same ol'. Won't do.

Forrest Claypool is the mayor two years from now: 50%. Rahm just might decide to install a successor early and spend more time with his investment banking family.

Forrest Claypool runs for mayor: 10%. Only if he's the incumbent.

Joe Berrios is indicted: 50 percent. Seems like just a matter of time, yet there he is, still a free man.

Obama Library goes to Washington Park: 50 percent. Seems like this was decided a long time ago.

Obama Library goes to Jackson Park: 50 percent. Washington Park a diversion; Jackson Park more ready-made.

The Star Wars museum gets built: 1 percent. Down another 24 ticks as project stalls amidst ungrateful citizens who won't bend law for their betters.

The Infrastructure Trust lasts another year: 25 percent. Is that thing still around?

The local media continues to ignore Homan Square: 100 percent. The psychology is just bizarre.

Donald Trump accuses Hillary Clinton of being a lizard person before the election: 30%. Illuminati strategy always difficult to suss out.

Alex Jones accuses both of being lizard people: 100%. Hasn't he already?

Billy Corgan does same: 90%. He'll pretend he's just asking the question. Teach the debate!

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Propositions
Over/Under on how many police officers the feds indict in the Laquan McDonald case: 5. Cut in half; bad news is coming.

Over/Under on how long DOJ is here: 15 months.

Over/Under on the number of aldermen who will be indicted before the next election: 3.5.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Jason Ervin, Patrick O'Connor, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Howard Brookins, Emma Mitts.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Daley relative most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Patrick Daley, Patrick Daley Thompson.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending probability: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

Year Illinois has a budget in descending probability: 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on June 1, 2016


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