Chicago - Oct. 23, 2014
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Rahm Emanuel is re-elected: 90 percent. Up 10 points on news that Karen Lewis is out. Not only is Bob Fioretti a lesser challenger, but that dreaded sense of inevitability has already enveloped the city.

Bob Fioretti is elected: 5 percent. Down five points on news that Karen Lewis is out. Why down? Because of the slim chance that someone else joins the race. And also because that dreaded sense of inevitability has already enveloped the city.

Toni Preckwinkle joins the race: 0 percent. Too loyal to party, too comfortable at County, too unwilling to directly challenge power.

Karen Lewis is elected: 1 percent. Could she still win a write-in race from her hospital bed? Hmmm.

column_pol_odds.gifPat Quinn is re-elected: 55 percent. Holding steady as it increasingly appears a desperate Rauner could lose by a wider margin than Bill Brady four years ago.

Bruce Rauner is elected: 45 percent. Still has money to burn - and that's exactly what he's doing with it.

Paul Vallas destroys Evelyn Sanguinetti in a debate: 50 percent. Only if the Rauner campaign allows her to attend; then 100 percent.

Rauner campaign plays gender card after said destruction: 100 percent. Will probably cut an ad with Diana - though not Ditka.

Vallas stays in LG job for a whole term: 50 percent. Only if he has designs on getting a promotion in four years - which presumably was why he joined the ticket.

Judy Baar Topinka wins re-election: 95 percent. Media giving her a pass on Sheila Simon's only chance.

Sheila Simon ever holds state office again: 1%. Maybe not even dog catcher - unless a Dem needs to borrow her name again.

Tom Cross is our next treasurer: 80 percent. As long as he keeps his mouth shut; Dem Frerichs is a disaster.

Obama helps Quinn: 50 percent. Might not want to campaign with the president in Latino districts.

Patrick Daley Thompson is the next 11th Ward alderman: 99 percent. Is he for or agin' Rahm? You never know, 'cause the Daleys are really only for the Daleys.

The city council is ready for reform: 14%. At best.

Dick Durbin is re-elected: 99 percent. Oberweis may not be a career politician, but he's a career politician wannabe.

Bill Foster wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Brad Schneider wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Rodney Davis wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. See Foster, Schneider.

Lisa Madigan is re-elected state attorney general: 99 percent. Won't even need daddy's help to beat sacrificial Republican.

Anita Alvarez is re-elected: 90 percent. You can't beat an incompetent with nobody - especially in Crook County.

Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.

Michael Madigan is indicted: 2 percent. Maybe the Metra mess leads somewhere.

Richard M. Daley is indicted: 1 percent. The Great White Whale who got away.

Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.

Mark Kirk wins re-election: 20 percent. Down another five ticks for turning into a raving lunatic before our eyes; Dems starting to line up.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Obama library goes anywhere other than U of C: 0 percent. Maybe branches elsewhere, but Axelrod's Institute is paving the path. Plus, Obama's an elitist.

Propositions
Over/Under on how many progressive aldermen Rahm takes out: 1.5.

Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: March 2015. Too close to election now.

Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2015. She wants out now, but has to coordinate departure with McCarthy.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Patrick O'Connor, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on October 14, 2014


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BOOKS - The Onion vs. Gone Girl.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - Chicagoetry: Sixteen Movies Ago.


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