Chicago - Sep. 23, 2018
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Rahm wins re-election: 0 percent. He was last listed at 55 percent. Now he's out.

Lori Lightfoot gets elected mayor: 25 percent. Hurt the most by Rahm's departure; had a chance, but now might be left behind.

Troy LaRaviere gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Who?

Paul Vallas gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Kass is delusional; where do the votes come from, 2002?

Dorothy Brown gets elected mayor: 0 percent. If the feds don't get her, the disaster that is the circuit court's office will. But she can still pull enough pulpit votes to wreak havoc.

Willie Wilson gets elected mayor: 0 percent. But a lot of vultures will make bank fueling his delusion, and he can still pull enough black votes to wreak havoc, with his support of Trump and Rauner competing with his habit of giving away his cash.

Garry McCarthy gets elected mayor: 0 percent. 16 shots.

column_pol_odds.gifNeal Sales-Griffin gets elected mayor: 0 percent. No sale, Neal.

Ja'Mal Green gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Dude.

Amara Enyia gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Could've run for aldermen since her last vanity campaign.

John Kozlar gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Doesn't even have name recognition in his own family.

Matthew Roney gets elected mayor: 0 percent. See Kozlar.

Jerry Joyce Jr. gets elected mayor: 0 percent. W. T. F.

Newcomers . . .

Tom Dart runs for mayor: OUT

Carlos Ramirez-Rosa runs for mayor: OUT

Pat Quinn runs for mayor: OUT

Kwame Raoul runs for mayor: OUT

Bridget Gainer reconsiders, runs for mayor: Apparently OUT

Toni Preckwinkle runs for mayor: 50 percent. She'd be mayor already if she had the guts to take on Rahm last time. UPDATE 9/20: IN

Susana Mendoza runs for mayor: 50 percent. She'd be formidable, but she can't wait until she gets re-elected as comptroller in November to decide.

Kurt Summers runs for mayor: 35 percent. Path too muddy, suddenly the wrong credentials.

Mike Quigley runs for mayor: 15 percent. Not the time for a middle-of-the-road North Side white guy. UPDATE 9/23: OUT

Rod Sawyer runs for mayor: 5 percent. As thin a resume an alderman can put together, but he probably likes being mentioned.

Rick Munoz runs for mayor: 5 percent. 20 years too late.

Chuy Garcia runs for mayor: 5 percent. Maybe if the top two or three progressive choices drop out and he's talked into it, but Lightfoot would also have to drop.

Luis Gutierrez runs for mayor: 5 percent. That ship has almost certainly sailed. UPDATE 9/12: OUT

David Orr runs for mayor: 15 percent. Where you been, dude? UPDATE 9/10: OUT

Gery Chico runs for mayor: 5 percent. Daley-era apparatchik not exactly what city is looking for right now. UPDATE 9/20: IN

Miguel del Valle runs for mayor: 0 percent. Just thought we'd mention him because no one else is, but he should've been the guy in 2011.

Bill Daley runs for mayor: 0 percent. Can you imagine? Some of us still remember his aborted run for governor, not to mention him floating more trial balloons about running for office than [insert clown joke]. UPDATE 9/17: Gawwwwd, he's in.

Patrick Daley Thompson runs for mayor: 0 percent. Not yet.

Joe Moreno runs for mayor: 0 percent. The fauxgressive voting bloc is just not big enough to win.

Tom Tunney runs for mayor: 0 percent. Not the guy downtown money is looking for.

Brendan Reilly runs for mayor: 0 percent. Maybe the guy downtown money is looking for, but not what the city wants right now.

Scott Waguespack runs for mayor: 5 percent. In a better world, he'd be a more serious contender - or at least finance committee chair. UPDATE 9/10: OUT

Michael Sacks runs for mayor: 0 percent. He is downtown money, but really?

Arne Duncan runs for mayor: 0 percent. He'd have to answer questions again, hopefully, about how he clouted Rauner's daughter into Payton. UPDATE 9/15: OUT

Maria Pappas runs for mayor: 0 percent. That ship sailed a long time ago.

Lisa Madigan runs for mayor: 0 percent. Dad screwed her out of governorship; mayor's job doesn't seem like her thing. UPDATE 9/7: OUT

Anna Valencia runs for mayor: 5 percent. Maybe to boost her name ID for the future. UPDATE 9/7: OUT

LaShawn Ford runs for mayor: 5 percent. See Valencia.

Patrick O'Connor runs for mayor: 0 percent. Strictly an operator who's getting out because the next mayor isn't likely to want him as floor leader.

Ed Burke runs for mayor: 0 percent. In his dreams, but certainly not in ours.

Chance The Rapper runs for mayor: 0 percent. Has his hands full with Chicagoist.

Rhymefest runs for mayor: 0 percent. Would just seem like Chance Lite.

Vic Mensa runs for mayor: 5 percent. You know what? It would rock.

Receiving mentions . . .

Larry Rogers Jr. runs for mayor: 1 percent. Vanity, definitely my favorite sin.

Corey Brooks runs for mayor: 1 percent. See Rogers.

Bob Fioretti runs for mayor: 1 percent. See Brooks.

Valerie Jarrett runs for mayor: 0 percent. D'ya think she really wants to worry about Streets & San? Then again, that's what I thought about Rahm. UPDATE 9/7: OUT

Jesse White and Walter Burnett: 0 percent. Each is OUT, as if they were ever in. But media asked them.

Ameya Pawar: 1 percent. OUT, but always threatened to run if Rahm didn't.

Elsewhere . . .

Bruce Rauner is re-elected: 20 percent. Motorcycle vest getting quite a workout, but numbers not budging.

J.B. Pritzker wins the governorship: 80 percent. His to lose, but prevent defense doesn't always work.

Sam McCann wins the governorship: 0 percent. He's no Jesse Ventura.

Kash Jackson wins the governorship: 0 percent. Only in Clownlandia.

Kwame Raoul is the next state attorney general: 65 percent. Despite poor campaign, blue wave and Pritzker coattails will carry him.

Ericka Harold is the next state attorney general: 35 percent. Bright but not really, just like her opponent.

Peter Roskam gets re-elected: 50 percent. Blue wave may carry Casten.

Brad Schneider gets re-elected: 90 percent. Blue wave.

Mike Bost gets re-elected: 50 percent. Brendan Kelly will make it interesting.

Rodney Davis gets re-elected: 50 percent. Betsy Dirksen Londrigan will make it interesting.

Amazon chooses Chicago: 10 percent. Rahm's departure could mean we've already "lost" or help push Jeff Bezos over the finish line with D.C.

Elon Musk's O'Hare tunnel gets built: 10 percent. Rahm was his lifeline.

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Propositions

Over/Under on number of aldermen who will be indicted before the next city council election: 4. Hurry up, feds, transcribe those tapes!

Over/Under on number of aldermen currently wearing a wire: 1.5. There's always at least one.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Jason Ervin, Howard Brookins, Anthony Beale, Emma Mitts, Walter Burnett, George Cardenas, Carrie Austin, Danny Solis, Patrick O'Connor.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Daley relative most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Patrick Daley, Patrick Daley Thompson.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending probability: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

Over/Under on how long Janice Jackson lasts as CPS CEO: 20 months. The only question is what will force her out.

Over/Under on how long Eddie Johnson lasts as CPD Supt.: 20 months. The only question is what will force him out.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on September 11, 2018


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BOOKS - Writers Under Surveillance.

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