Chicago - Jul. 16, 2018
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Bruce Rauner is re-elected: 20 percent. Down five ticks on entry of Sam McCann into the race.

J.B. Pritzker wins the governorship: 80 percent. Up one tick because Sam McCann is nuts.

Sam McCann wins the governorship: 0 percent. Down on tick because Sam McCann is nuts.

column_pol_odds.gifRahm wins re-election: 60 percent. Down 10 ticks on Lori Lightfoot's entry into the race.

Lori Lightfoot gets elected mayor: 30 percent. She's in.

Troy LaRaviere gets elected mayor: 10 percent. Being a spurned principal, no matter how good you were at your job, isn't enough.

Paul Vallas gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Where do the votes come from?

Dorothy Brown gets elected mayor: 0 percent. If the feds don't get her, the disaster that is the circuit court's office will.

Willie Wilson gets elected mayor: 0 percent. But a lot of vultures will make bank fueling his delusion.

Neal Sales-Griffin gets elected mayor: 0 percent. No sale, Neal.

Ja'Mail Green gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Dude.

Garry McCarthy gets elected mayor: 0 percent. 16 shots.

Bridget Gainer gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Gets her name added to every list of potential challengers but why?

Chance The Rapper gets elected mayor: 0 percent. No.

Ditka endorses McCarthy: 100 percent. Counterproductive, but he'll do it.

Kwame Raoul is the next state attorney general: 65 percent. Blue wave, Pritzker coattails.

Ericka Harold is the next state attorney general: 35 percent. Will have to disassociate from Rauner to have a shot.

Peter Roskam gets re-elected: 50 percent. Blue wave may carry Casten.

Brad Schneider gets re-elected: 90 percent. Blue wave.

Mike Bost gets re-elected: 50 percent. Brendan Kelly will make it interesting.

Rodney Davis gets re-elected: 50 percent. Betsy Dirksen Londrigan will make it interesting.

Lisa Madigan runs for governor one day: 50 percent. Window closing; needs to stay relevant or risk becoming irrelevant.

Lisa Madigan runs for mayor one day: 15 percent. Not sure that'd be a job she'd enjoy.

Ra Joy runs for public office again: 50 percent. Why not start at alderman or state legislator? UPDATE: Out for mayor.

Litesa Wallace runs for public office again: 75 percent. Gave up state House seat; likely to return for something.

The end is near for Ed Burke: 1 percent. Massive campaign account; will only go out on his own terms.

Amazon chooses Chicago: 25 percent. Down 10 ticks; D.C. has three ping pong balls and Bezos is building a new life there.

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Propositions

Over/Under on number of aldermen who will be indicted before the next city council election: 4. Hurry up, feds, transcribe those tapes!

Over/Under on number of aldermen currently wearing a wire: 1.5. There's always at least one.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Jason Ervin, Howard Brookins, Anthony Beale, Emma Mitts, Walter Burnett, George Cardenas, Carrie Austin, Danny Solis, Patrick O'Connor.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Daley relative most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Patrick Daley, Patrick Daley Thompson.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending probability: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

Over/Under on how long Janice Jackson lasts as CPS CEO: 20 months. The only question is what will force her out.

Over/Under on how long Eddie Johnson lasts as CPD Supt.: 20 months. The only question is what will force him out.

Governor Pritzker signs Chicago elected school board bill: 0 percent. Says he supports it but wouldn't do that to Rahm; Cullerton will keep it from his desk anyway.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on May 10, 2018


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