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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Trump wins popular vote: 1%. And that's even if Putin holds back the river wards until he learns how many votes he needs. 11/4 UPDATE: Still true.

Trump wins Electoral College: 48%. Draws another inside straight in the swing states but loses by margin of dead voters who attended his rallies and got COVID. 11/4 UPDATE: Still true.

GOP loses Senate: 80%. But will McConnell accept the results and vacate the majority leader's suite? 11/4 UPDATE: Wow, Democrats. No judges for the next four years.

Dems keep House: 99%: They will then find a way to fuck up everything over the next four years. 11/4 UPDATE: Still true.

column_pol_odds.gifKim Foxx wins re-election: 55%. Phantom O'Brien gets swamped in blue wave. 11/4 UPDATE: Foxx at 53.7% with 98% of precincts reporting. This race was never close (despite media portrayals) but it was still bullshit for Foxx to refuse to debate her opponent, however noxious he was.)

Democratic judges sweep Cook County: 100%. Even without the river wards.

Dick Durbin wins re-election: 99%. If only he could beat Chuck Schumer. 11/4 UPDATE: Duh.

Cheri Bustos wins re-election: 53%. Republican opponent closer than appears in mirror. 11/4 UPDATE: Bustos at 51.7% with 99% of precincts reporting.

Lauren Underwood wins re-election: 53%. Ice cream man appears closer than in mirror. 11/4 UPDATE: Too close to call, which certainly tells you something about America.

Judge Michael Toomin is retained: 48%. Toni Preckwinkle gets her man. 11/4 UPDATE: Looks like he'll eke it out. Note: Two things can be true at the same time, people - that Toomin is bad at juvenile justice and that Preckwinkle led a Machine-backed political vendetta.

Fair Tax wins: 48%. Only Ken Griffin and Sam Zell can have nice things. 11/4 UPDATE: Hugely disappointing loss; the most important measure Illinois could take to right itself, and the people went with the billionaires who already evade taxes anyway. The most upsetting loss of the night.

Percent of Americans who vow to move to another country after results are in: 40%. Unless they've already made their reservations. 11/4 UPDATE: Please reckon with what America really is, though.

Number who do: 0. Who will even take us at this point?

Number of rich people who leave Illinois if Fair Tax wins: 0. Call their bluff.

Another Hunter Biden laptop is "discovered" before night is out: 50%. Maybe they'll just go with more Hillary e-mails.

Rudy Giuliani goes into hiding: 1%. Not smart enough to get out while he can.

Trump pardons himself before night is out: 1%. Will save for a White House superspreader event.

SCOTUS decides election: 50%. Kavanaugh has already ordered kegs and 'za for the long nights ahead.

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Election Night Over/Unders

Number of Proud Boys who blow themselves up: 12

Time that Fox News calls it for Trump: 7 p.m.

Time that OANN calls it for Trump: 7 a.m.

Time that Trump calls it for himself: Noon

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on November 3, 2020


MUSIC - Madonna vs. Moderna.
TV - Sundays With The Military-Industrial Complex.
POLITICS - IDOC Still Violating Constitution.
SPORTS - Skytober.

BOOKS - China Holding Swedish Publisher.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - All The Styles.


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