Chicago - Dec. 14, 2017
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Bruce Rauner gets the GOP nomination for governor: 75 percent. Jeanne Ives is nuts, but she'll take a chunk out of Rauner's hide.

Jeanne Ives gets the GOP nomination: 25 percent. She's nuts, but she'll take a chunk out of Rauner's hide.

Bruce Rauner is re-elected: 30 percent. Down five ticks on intra-party dissatisfaction. But the Dem nominee ain't gonna be an especially inspiring figure.

The Dem nominee wins the governorship: 65 percent. It's gonna be a Dem year, let's face it.

Sam McCann, running as an independent, wins the governorship: 5 percent. But let's see if he brings it.

column_pol_odds.gifJ.B. Pritzker gets the Dem nomination: 50%. Dem constituencies falling into place.

Chris Kennedy gets the Dem nomination: 25 percent. Up five ticks; gaining strength as a candidate, but too late.

Daniel Biss gets the Dem nomination: 25 percent. True progressive-ish alternative could roll up the anti-billionaire vote.

Bob Daiber gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Who?

Tio Hardiman gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. The new Dock Walls.

Robert Marshall gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. The new Bob Daiber.

Ameya Pawar gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Unless everyone else flames out; he'll work hard, but please. OUT

Scott Drury gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Wrong year for an anti-Madigan platform; we need him on that wall. OUT

Alex Paterakis gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Who? OUT

Chuy Garcia gets the Dem nomination to replace Luis Gutierrez: 50 percent. The fix is in.

Sol Flores gets the Dem nomination: 30 percent. A successful social services leader who happens to be a woman sure sounds good; the grassroots candidate.

Carlos Rosa gets the Dem nomination: 20 percent. An enthusiastic base but, fair warning, he'll come out the race worse off than he went into it.

Joe Moreno gets the Dem nomination: 10 percent. Almost lost his aldermanic seat last time around; the shine is off the hipster fauxgressive.

Neli Vazquez-Rowland: 0 percent. Gold Coast resident unlikely to fare well in this district. OUT

Ray Lopez gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. No-name alderman with no good reason to run.

Richard Gonzalez gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Police sergeant backed by state Rep. Luis Arroyo unlikely to get traction.

Bobby Rush (D-AT&T) gets the Dem nomination for re-election to Congress: 90 percent. Rush should go, but Howard Brookins unlikely to be the one to push him out.

Dan Lipinski (D-His Dad) gets the Dem nomination for re-election to Congress: 70 percent. Marie Newman will run a spirited campaign, but Lipinski, sadly, always survives in this district.

Mike Quigley (D-Hockey) gets the Dem nomination for re-election to Congress: 90 percent. Sameena Mustafa is an intriguing challenger, one of three, but Quigley is one of the Machine's favorite "reformers."

Danny Davis (D-Moonies) gets the Dem nomination for re-election to Congress: 99 percent. Two no-name challengers, sadly. Like Rush, his time is long past.

Adam Kinzinger (R-Downstate) gets the GOP nomination for re-election to Congress: 99 percent. Two challengers whom are presumably not real threats.

Darin LaHood (R-His Dad) gets the GOP nomination for re-election to Congress: 99 percent. One challenger who is presumably not a threat.

Toni Preckwinkle gets the Dem nomination for Cook County Board President: 95 percent. Some folks may have lingering distaste for the now-revoked soda tax, but Preckwinkle is still miles beyond her competition.

Bob Fioretti gets the Dem nomination: 5 percent. Only if the nexus of racists and soda tax haters is larger than we think - though he found a pigeon in Willie Wilson to bankroll him.

Todd Stroger gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. As if - but that didn't stop some members of our esteemed local press corps from taking him seriously. OUT

Tom Dart gets the Dem nomination for re-election to Cook County Sheriff: 90 percent. Two challengers, including former state Rep. Eddie Acevedo, who have never appeared on 60 Minutes.

Karen Yarbrough gets the Dem nomination for re-election to Cook County Recorder of Deeds: 70 percent. She shouldn't, but the Machine favors her over main challenger Nick Shields, spokesperson for Cook County Clerk David Orr.

Alma Anaya gets the Dem nomination to replace Chuy Garcia on the Cook County board: 60 percent. The fix is in.

Alex Acevedo gets the Dem nomination: 20 percent. Some folks may not like the fix that's in.

Angeles Sandoval gets the Dem nomination: 20 percent. Some folks may not like the fix that's in.

Ricardo Munoz gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. He had a good shot at the job he's longed for, but in the end helped fix it for Anaya. OUT

Joe Berrios gets the Dem nomination for Cook County Assessor: 50 percent. He shouldn't, of course, but he is the Machine.

Fritz Kaegi gets the Dem nomination: 30 percent. Got started early, though hasn't picked up much traction. Still.

Andrea Raila gets the Dem nomination: 20 percent. Her second shot at Berrios; could become the better alternative.

Robert Shaw gets the Dem nomination for Metropolitan Water Reclamation District: 10 percent. Please let's not let this happen.

Todd Stroger gets the Dem nomination for Metropolitan Water Reclamation District: 0 percent. Please let's not let this happen.

Kwame Raoul gets the Dem nomination for state attorney general: 45 percent. Early frontrunner with the best resume.

Jesse Ruiz gets the Dem nomination: 30 percent. Lackluster civil servant whose term on the Chicago school board will not look good.

Sharon Fairley gets the Dem nomination: 20 percent. Big jump from short-lived term leading COPA.

Renato Mariotti gets the Dem nomination: 5 percent. Best known for his Twitter feed.

Pat Quinn gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Know when your time is up, dude.

Nancy Rotering gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Big step up from Highland Park mayor.

Aaron Goldstein gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Former Blagojevich defense lawyer is not a great credential.

Scott Drury gets the Dem nomination: 0 percent. Same chance he had when he was running for governor.

Rahm wins re-election: 70 percent. You can't beat evil with nobody.

Troy LaRaviere gets elected mayor: 10 percent. Being a spurned principal, no matter how good you were at your job, isn't enough.

Bridget Gainer gets elected mayor: 10 percent. Apparently considering it, and field needs a woman, but willing to challenge Rahm?

Scott Waguespack gets elected mayor: 10 percent. Best council antagonist, but hasn't built citywide appeal.

Garry McCarthy gets elected mayor: 0 percent. 16 shots.

Chance The Rapper gets elected mayor: 0 percent. No.

Propositions

Over/Under on number of aldermen who will be indicted before the next election: 4. Hurry up, feds, transcribe those tapes!

Over/Under on number of aldermen currently wearing a wire: 1.5. There's always at least one.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Willie Cochran [done!], Jason Ervin, Howard Brookins, Anthony Beale, Emma Mitts, Walter Burnett, George Cardenas, Carrie Austin, Danny Solis, Patrick O'Connor.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Daley relative most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Patrick Daley, Patrick Daley Thompson.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending probability: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

-

Comments welcome.



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Posted on December 11, 2017


MUSIC - The Weekend In Chicago Rock.
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POLITICS - Charter Schools Complicit With Segregation.
SPORTS - USA Gymnastics Bans Illinois Coach.

BOOKS - The Randomness Of Harvard Admissions.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - Public Lands Matter.


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