Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Rahm is re-elected: 50 percent. Holding steady; disaffection worse than poll numbers suggest but lack of viable opponent makes question moot for now.

Toni Preckwinkle runs for mayor: 15 percent. Not making a move unless Rahm moves on.

A sitting alderman runs for mayor: 10 percent. Progressive caucus not enough to overcome structural obstacles.

Tom Dart runs for mayor: 5%. Only if Rahm drops out; maybe not even then.

Miguel del Valle runs for mayor: 5%. No signs of life.

Rahm runs for president: 40 percent. Hard to imagine but moneymakers could make it happen.

Rahm is indicted: 6 percent. Up a point based on pattern of dishonest services. Caveat, however, remains: If they didn't get Daley, they're not going to get Rahm, who is actually capable of being embarrassed about tinpot corruption. But nearly everything he says sounds like a threat so there's still a chance.

Juan Rangel is indicted: 55 percent. Up five ticks based on the stench of UNO alone.

Pat Quinn runs for re-election: 100 percent. Too stubborn to step aside.

Lisa Madigan runs for governor: 100 percent. Already there.

Bill Daley runs for governor: 1 percent. Only if LMad doesn't go.

Pat Quinn wins the primary: 35 percent. Being underdog may boost popularity and he'll be a fighter, but LMad will exude competence while offering a new voice for similar values.

Pat Quinn is re-elected: 15 percent. Hayseed schtick both tired and phony.

Lisa Madigan becomes governor: 70 percent. Up five ticks on increasing Quinn irrelevance and continued GOP infighting. Level of Madigan fatigue in state will be key, though.

Pat Quinn is indicted: 50 percent. He's an Illinois governor; the line opens at 25 percent just on principle.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Dick Durbin wins re-election: 99 percent. Would've made a better president than Obama.

Mark Kirk wins re-election: 80 percent. Sympathetic figure who seems to have returned to moderate roots.

Joe Walsh becomes state GOP chair: 1 percent. Illinois Republicans not that suicidal.

Jim Edgar becomes state GOP chair: 1 percent. Who they need - how could ultraconservatives object? - but not likely to accept a draft.

Kirk Dillard becomes governor: 55 percent. Edgar, Ryan protege who could work across the aisle probably best choice after Madigan.

Bill Brady becomes governor: 35 percent. Stale.

Dan Rutherford becomes governor: 35 percent. Has a shot, but kind of a bumbler.

Bruce Rauner becomes governor: 5%. Down five ticks on Payton politicking.

Jason Plummer becomes lieutenant governor: 0 percent. That bullet only needed to be dodged once.

Jason Plummer becomes state party chair: 5 percent. Down five ticks based on early laugh tracks; Jim Nalepa the better choice.

James Clayborne becomes lieutenant governor: 30 percent. State senate majority leader from Belleville delivers downstate diversity.

Art Turner becomes lieutenant governor: 15 percent. Former state rep and deputy majority leader lost in last primary to Scott Lee Cohen; now an investigator in Cook County State's Attorney's Office.

Don Harmon becomes lieutenant governor: 11 percent. Faux Oak Park progressive could fit on either ticket.

Terry Link becomes lieutenant governor: 11 percent. Just lost race for Waukegan mayor, but seems to want out of his current job.

Gery Chico becomes lieutenant governor: 10 percent. Chicagoizes a ticket too much but also puts him back in play for future run for governor or U.S. Senate; current chairman of the state board of ed.

Miguel del Valle becomes lieutenant governor: 10 percent. Quinn just appointed him to state commerce commission; puts him back into play for future elected office; might fit even better with Madigan.

Jesse White becomes lieutenant governor: 5 percent. If called on, would he serve?

Cheryle Jackson becomes lieutenant governor: 1 percent. A black woman would help Quinn, but this one not enough.

Jack Franks becomes lieutenant governor: 5 percent. Eyeing statewide run but would have to pair up with LMad. What does he bring her?

Sheila Simon becomes attorney general: 5 percent. Mistakenly think she's achieved something besides being used for her name; AG would be outkicking her coverage.

Sheila Simon becomes comptroller or treasurer: 10 percent. Sigh. Maybe just trade jobs with Jesse White.

Kwame Raoul runs for state attorney general: 70 percent. Hence a legislative flurry.

Kwame Raoul runs for state treasurer: 30 percent. Possible fallback position.

Brendan Reilly runs for state treasurer: 30 percent. Wants to make a move, but options aren't good.

Brendan Reilly runs for state comptroller: 15 percent. Possible fallback position.

Tom Dart runs for state attorney general: 40%. It's all about the dominoes - Madigan, Preckwinkle, White . . . maybe better to appoint him state prisons director.

Tom Cross runs for state attorney general: 35%. Depends on the field; has good job now.

Jim Durkin runs for state attorney general: 65%. Depends on the field; stuck in a job he's tired of.

Susana Mendoza runs for secretary of state - someday: 50 percent. Clerk's job a good dry run.

Stephanie Neely runs for state treasurer or comptroller - someday: 50 percent. City treasurer's job is a good dry run. But advocating stop-and-frisk was really weird and possibly indicative of a different kind of move.

Michael Cabonargi runs for state treasurer: 5 percent. Former Durbin aide and SEC lawyer now sitting on Cook County Board of Review floating his name for some unknown reason. Wife is executive director of city's Public Building Commission.

Michael Frerichs runs for state treasurer: 20 percent. Would be the downstate candidate.

The office of lieutenant governor is eliminated: 0 percent. Illinois pols don't eliminate elected offices regardless of need; treasurer, comptroller and secretary of state easily mergeable with state departments, too. Exist to test statewide viability. City and county also have unneeded elected offices (clerks, recorder of deeds), though not where substantive, like school board.

The city council displays a new independence under Rahm: 100 percent. They no longer do what Daley tells them to do.

Rahm's infrastructure bank ends in disaster: 50%. The what? Oh yeah. Could just as easily be merely ineffective.

Chicago gets a casino: 99%. Quinn keeps stringing it out but no longer holds any cards.

Chicago casino ends in disaster: 99%. I wouldn't say "ends" exactly because it will be unstoppable.

Joe Berrios is indicted: 50 percent. He's Joe Berrios. He probably already has his cell picked out.

At least one relative of Berrios is indicted with him: 90 percent. Duh.

Anita Alvarez gets re-elected: 25 percent. Down five ticks. Anger among African Americans; whites mystified. Plus, 60 Minutes already made the oppo ads.

Anita Alvarez is appointed judge: 5%. Down five ticks; talk has dissipated.

Anita Alvarez runs for attorney general: 15%. Floated via Sneed, but too toxic.

We'll ever know who hired Angelo Torres: 50 percent. Ed Burke is still around (hint, hint).

Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.

Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.

Michael Madigan is indicted: 1 percent. He plays by rules that encourage venality but not criminality.

Propositions
Over/Under on how many CPS schools will be closed: 35. Tremendous public pressure moving aldermen into opposition.

UPDATE 5/10: B3's list: 54. Hearing officers' list: 40. Now action moves to the school board.

Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2015.

Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: March 2014.

Over/Under on Jesse Jackson Jr.'s prison sentence: 4 years. Eligible for five; will get some mercy.

Over/Under on Sandi Jackson's prison sentence: 3 years' probation. Feds dislike making kids orphans. See Patti Blagojevich.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following: Patrick O'Connor, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Anthony Beale, Jason Ervin, Deborah Graham.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending order, parlays available: Bill, John, Michael.

Rahm brother most likely to be indicted in descending order: Ari, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder besides Berrios likely to be indicted in descending order: Stanley Moore, Karen Yarbrough, Dorothy Brown, Maria Pappas.

Early Over/Under on aldermen voting against Rahm's next budget: 4. First two years: 0, 3.

Date new alderman Natashia Holmes casts her first vote against Rahm: How about never? Is never good for you?

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