Political Odds

By The Beachwood Bookmaking Bureau

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Todd Stroger wins re-election: 50 percent. This is still Cook County.

Todd Stroger will be taken care of with a nice cushy consolation prize if he loses: 98 percent. This is still Cook County.

Todd Stroger decides not to run for re-election: 35 percent. Machine may decide for him, but he's still their stooge.

Todd Stroger gets indicted: 1 percent. Not smart enough to scheme.

Toni Preckwinkle wins county board prez: 30 percent. Up ten ticks as Stroger implodes.

Forrest Claypool wins county board prez: 20 percent. Tough challenge awaits from Preckwinkle, especially if Stroger folds and African Americans rush to her side.

Paul Vallas wins county board prez: 10 percent. Running as Republican looks gimmicky; Machine out to crush him.

Tony Peraica wins county board prez: 1 percent. Has worn out his limited welcome.

Pat Quinn wins re-election: 40 percent. Up ten ticks. Appealing folksy style and common sense approach can overcome impending tax hikes.

Lisa Madigan is our next governor: 30 percent. Holding steady. Playing politics with tax issue cuts both ways.

Dan Hynes is our next governor: 5 percent. Has to be looking elsewhere.

Mark Kirk is our next governor: 10 percent. Up five ticks. Was looking at Burris seat instead but now looking at Alexi's checking account.

Roland Burris wins re-election: 40 percent. Down 10 ticks on continuing embarrassments. Up to Machine.

Alexi Giannoulias wins Burris's seat: 25 percent. Will Obama endorse to African-American objections?

Jan Schakowsky wins Burris's seat: 15 percent. A white male won't get through the primary, but maybe a woman will. May sit it out.

Bill Daley wins Burris's seat: 1 percent. Would take massive bullying effort and suitcases of money to black ministers. Meaning it's still possible.

Jesse Jackson Jr. wins Burris's seat: 5 percent. Down five ticks. Not going anywhere until Blago trial is over.

Danny Davis wins Burris's seat: 1 percent. Wanted [clean] appointment; won't run.

Somebody not discussed yet wins Burris's seat: 20 percent. Room for a fresh face; and I don't mean Cheryle Jackson.

Mark Kirk wins Burris's seat: 40 percent. Only Burris fiasco has made it possible.

Dick Durbin wins re-election: 50 percent. Blood in the water for first time.

Blago cuts a deal: 1 percent. Doesn't know how even if he wanted to.

Blago is convicted: 99 percent. Slight chance he gets mob to buy the jury.

Blago book is a best-seller: 99 percent. For at least one week.

Blago finishes it before he is indicted: 0 percent. Will be timed for trial.

Patti Blago is indicted by Easter: 65 percent. She could turn state's [bleep]in' evidence. UPDATE: This didn't happen for strategic reasons. Re-calculating.

Patti Blago is indictable: 100 percent. That's not the point.

Richard M. Daley is lying: 50 percent. If his lips are moving.

Jody Weis lasts another year: 35 percent. It's a disaster. But now we know why Huberman didn't get the job.

Huberman being groomed for mayor: 35 percent. Not Daley's style to groom.

Chicago lands the 2016 Olympics: 25 percent. The IOC loves pay-to-play, but transportation plan, funding and venue arrangements still a little shifty. Plus, other bids look awfully good too.

Obama wins re-election: 66 percent. Re-election campaign underway; gorge on earmarks, lobbyists and wild spending now before they have to be disavowed again.

Obama commutes George Ryan's sentence: 50 percent. Application still active; hey, he won't pursue war criminals, might want to turn the page.

Obama commutes Tony Rezko's sentence: 35 percent. Sometime within the next eight years? Why not?

Joe Biden resigns after the mid-term elections: 75 percent. He's already bored out of his skull; Obama can choose successor. Probably someone from Chicago.

Propositions
Over/Under on number of Daleyites still to be named to high-level posts in the Obama administration: 6.5.

Over/Under on the number of times Michelle Obama's horrid fashion sense will be compared to Jackie O's in the next six months: 34,298.

Over/Under on the average number of questions Obama will take in press conferences in his first year: 4.5.

Over/Under on City Hall scandals in 2009 that "might be the one that breaks Daley's back" but won't be: 3.

Over/Under on the number of times Fran Spielman will use the phrase "Daley's Olympic dream" in 2009: 200.

Over/Under on how many issues Daley accuses his opponents of being racists on before the next election: 2.

Over/Under on how many more times Todd Stroger will try to explain that it's the media's fault: 3 times a week until he's out of office.

Over/Under on Hired Truck convictions: 51. Number moves south, too much under action. So far, 49 have been charged; 46 have been convicted; and one fell off a horse and died before trial.