Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Pat Quinn wins a full term as governor: 50 percent. Brady victory on the other side is a gift he doesn't deserve.

Bill Brady wins the governorship: 40 percent. Volatility is in the political atmosphere.

Rich Whitney wins the governorship: 10 percent. We can only hope this is just a starting point.

Alexi Giannoulias wins Obama's former U.S. Senate seat: 40 percent. If it weren't for his family's bank, he'd be in the Macy's manager training program - and doing poorly.

Mark Kirk wins Obama's former U.S. Senate seat: 50 percent. By the end of this thing, though, it could be a rout.

Obama passes health care reform: 50 percent. Even a win at this point, though, is a loss.

Obama wins re-election: 40 percent. Holding steady at cruddy. Irony: If he did what he said he'd do, he'd be looking at a landslide.

Dick Durbin is the next Senate Majority Leader: 50 percent. Harry Reid is going down but calls for change could keep Durbin from advancing.

Toni Preckwinkle wins the county board presidency: 80 percent. Any enthusiasm for Roger Keats and Tom Tresser that might have materialized is fast disappearing.

Todd Stroger ever runs for public office again: 1 percent. Looking for soft landing at Ruth's Chris' or East Bank Club.

Rahm Emanuel takes the fall: 50 percent. Whispering campaign covering his butt setting the stage for a return to investment banking and then a search for a House district that will have him. Should have run for governor.

David Axelrod takes the fall: 50 percent. A pattern of electing candidates who can't govern? Just asking.

Valerie Jarrett takes the fall: 35 percent. She's a lot smarter than Desiree Rogers - and Rod Blagojevich. Will avoid taking any job she could get forced out from, including a Cabinet post.

Desiree Rogers returns to Chicago: 10 percent. Now that she's seen the bright lights of Washington . . . New York City fashion or publishing job more likely.

Richard M. Daley is re-elected: 80 percent. Astonishing considering parking meter anger; maybe somebody is lurking out there somewhere.

Richard M. Daley is lying: 100 percent. If his lips are moving.

City council becomes a real legislative body: 0 percent. Daley gets to appoint two more - replacing independent-minded Preckwinkle and Flores with puppets.

Blago is convicted: 90 percent. Depends on how much TV the jury watches.

Blago wins The Apprentice: 100 percent. If The Donald has his way - and he will.

Patti Blago is indictable: 100 percent. That's not the point.

Propositions
Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following: Berny Stone, Ed Burke, Freddrenna Lyle, Danny Solis, George Cardenas, Patrick Levar.

Next Daley pal/relative likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from among the following: Michael Tadin, Tim Degnan, Jeremiah Joyce, Fred Barbara, Robert Vanecko.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted, parlay in ascending order: Michael, Richard, John, Bill.

Over/Under on City Hall scandals in 2010 that "might be the one that breaks Daley's back" but won't be: 3.

Over/Under on how many issues Daley accuses his opponents of being racists on before the next election: 2.

Over/Under on Hired Truck convictions: 51. Number moves south, too much under action. So far, 49 have been charged; 46 have been convicted; and one fell off a horse and died before trial.