For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.
The chance that . . .
Kirk Dillard wins GOP nomination: 35 percent. Our opening frontrunner; crappy campaign full of contradictions and self-imploding brand cost him the race until Rutherford put him back in it. Won the ABC7 debate.
Bruce Rauner wins GOP nomination: 30 percent. Lost the ABC7 debate, won a muddled and inaccurate Crain's endorsement.
Dan Rutherford wins GOP nomination: 0 percent. Mishandled sexual harassment allegations just as he was getting a second look.
Bill Brady wins GOP nomination: 35 percent. The true conservative with a loyal base of support; people (the media) forget how close he came last time. But he and Dillard also seem like the old guard.
Pat Quinn wins the Dem nomination: 99.9 percent. He could still do something stupid, but otherwise Scott Lee Cohen would have a better chance of an upset than Tio Hardiman.
Pat Quinn is re-elected: 70 percent. The luckiest governor on the planet has gotten more breaks than Evel Knievel. Totally capable of screwing up, but Rauner hijacking dollars and sense on other side while going nuclear on opponents makes Quinn the prohibitive favorite.
Any felony review file has ever been "lost" in any Cook County case not involving R.J. Vanecko: 0 percent. The conspiracy worked.
Dan Webb is part of the conspiracy: 51 percent. And that's being generous.
Richard M. Daley ever recalls anything about his administration's involvement in the Vanecko case: 0 percent. Same chance he recalls the names Jon Burge, Robert Sorich and Angelo Torres.
Anita Alvarez is re-elected: 90 percent. You can't beat an incompetent with nobody - especially in Cook County.
Rahm runs unopposed: 99 percent. And with an approval rating in the teens at best. Way to go, Chicago!
Someone (viable) runs against him: 1 percent. Apparently Rahm could be indicted and no one in this town would step up.
Karen Lewis runs for mayor: 1 percent. Down nine ticks. Clearer than ever that she doesn't want the job - or even the campaign.
Toni Preckwinkle runs for mayor: 1 percent. She would win, but she's never had the stomach for direct challenges to power.
Toni Preckwinkle is re-elected at County: 99 percent. Only a sudden onset of Tourette's can derail her now.
Tom Dart runs for mayor: 1 percent. Would have a chance, but no signs he's reconsidering previous refusals.
Bob Fioretti runs for mayor: 10 percent. Up five ticks; he's not gonna leave it to Amara Enyia and Frederick Collins.
David Orr runs for mayor: 0 percent. What happened? Too comfortable shuffling papers and presiding over weddings.
Timothy Evans runs for mayor: 0 percent. Too comfortable running courts - and not necessarily well.
Dan Hynes runs for mayor: 0 percent. Who? Plus, brother works for Rahm.
Roderick Sawyer runs for mayor: 1 percent. Rumblings for awhile but not lately; would get slaughtered.
Scott Waguespack runs for mayor: 1 percent. Real reform and competency but lacking citywide appeal and would have to give up aldermanic seat if he lost.
Lisa Madigan runs for mayor: 0 percent. Could win, but hasn't shown the slightest interest; now waiting on 2018 guv race.
Kwame Raoul runs for mayor: 1 percent. Waiting on U.S. Senate.
Rahm Emanuel is harmed by his cold weather performance: 1 percent. He can't be harmed if no one runs against him.
Rahm Emanuel is harmed by Ventra debacle: 1 percent. He can't be harmed if no one runs against him.
Rahm Emanuel is harmed by continuing CPS debacles: 1 percent. He can't be harmed if no one runs against him.
Rahm Emanuel is harmed by yawning credibility gap: 1 percent. He can't be harmed if no one runs against him.
Rahm Emanuel is telling the truth: 1 percent. Not if his mouth is open.
Ed Burke ever introduces a piece of legislation that matters: 5 percent. Not his role as master of distraction pulls sleights of hand so mayors can operate real agenda in the shadows.
Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.
Michael Madigan is indicted: 2 percent. Maybe the Metra mess leads somewhere.
Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.
Sheila Simon is our next state comptroller: 1 percent. Exposed for the lightweight she is; lite guv not looking so bad now.
Tom Cross is the GOP nominee for treasurer: 65 percent. Playing the heavy.
Bob Grogan is the GOP nominee for treasurer: 35 percent. DuPage County Auditor is actually a CPA.
Mike Frerichs is our next state treasurer: 50 percent. Turnout for guv's race could tell the tale.
Robert Vanecko goes to trial: 2 percent. Pretrial filings don't look good. UPDATE: He pled.
Infrastructure Trust accomplishes something: 25 percent. Down another five ticks; is it even still around?
Deb Mell casts a "No" vote: 0 percent. Unless the mayor asks her to.
Chicago gets a casino: 99%. At old Michael Reese site - instead of the Olympics.
Chicago casino ends in disaster: 99%. I wouldn't say "ends" exactly because it will be unstoppable.
Joe Berrios is indicted: 51 percent. Ruling on inspector general pushes him above 50 for the first time.
Juan Rangel is indicted: 60 percent. The ABCs of UNO should give feds multiple choices.
We'll ever know who hired Angelo Torres: 50 percent. Ed Burke is still around (hint, hint).
Dick Durbin wins re-election: 80 percent. One last go.
Jim Oberweis wins GOP nomination for U.S. Senate: 50 percent. Will the party realy let this happen?
Doug Truax wins GOP nomination for U.S. Senate: 50 percent. The party doesn't care.
Mark Kirk wins re-election: 50 percent. Down 10 ticks - now Seth Rogen is after him.
Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.
Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.
Obama library goes anywhere other than U of C: 0 percent. Maybe branches elsewhere, but Axelrod's Institute is paving the path. Plus, Obama's an elitist.
Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: June 2014. Likes Rush Street but mayor's fingers stuck up his back has to hurt.
Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Jason Ervin, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Patrick O'Connor.
UPDATE 3/7: Howard Brookins heads to the top of the list; double-down by adding his father to your card. Two other aldermen implicated? Our top trifecta has Beale and Carrie Austin. Walter Burnett is getting lots of play and there's even some Emma Mitts action.
Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending order, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.
Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending order: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.
Next city/county officeholder besides Berrios likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Stanley Moore, Karen Yarbrough, Maria Pappas.
Posted on February 28, 2014
© 2006 - 2014, The Beachwood Media Company