Chicago - Mar. 25, 2019
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Toni Preckwinkle is elected mayor: 50 percent. Down five percent on a despicable, disingenuous campaign that is leaving her brand in tatters; she still has organization, though.

Lori Lightfoot is elected mayor: 50 percent. Up five percent on maintaining momentum by avoiding errors and gaining influential new adherents.

column_pol_odds.gifPatrick O'Connor is re-elected: 50 percent. Will Lightfoot coattails deliver the final blow? Also, note that it's Lightfoot's coattails, not Preckwinkle's, that threaten him (for example, SEIU supports Toni and Pat).

Leslie Hairston (5th) is re-elected: 60 percent. Challenger and activist William Calloway is a key figure in breaking the Laquan McDonald story, but doesn't have enough to get over the hump. Hairston vulnerable next time, though.

Roderick Sawyer (6th) is re-elected 60 percent. Like Hairston, lackluster alderman put on notice.

Ray Lopez (15th) is re-elected: 50 percent. Challenger (and Chuy Garcia ally) Rafael Yanez has a chance.

Toni Foulkes (16th) is re-elected: 55 percent. Foulkes ekes it out against Stephanie Coleman just like she did four years ago.

Jeanette B. Taylor is elected (20th): 51 percent. Former Dyett hunger striker squeaks by Nicole Johnson.

Howard Brookins is re-elected (21st): 57 percent. A stronger challenger might have had a shot.

Alex Acevedo is elected (25th): 50 percent. Ugly race against Byron Sigcho-Lopez will just get uglier; toss-up.

Ariel Reboyras is re-elected (30th): 50 percent. No one to root for here; challenger is Luis Gutierrez's daughter.

Milly Santiago is re-elected (31st): 60 percent. A stronger challenger could knock her off.

Deb Mell is re-elected (33rd): 45 percent. Please, no; challenger Rossana Rodriguez could be the shining light of new aldermen.

Samantha Nugent is elected (39th): 50 percent. Margaret Laurino protege trying to replace her retiring mentor vs. ward committeeman Robert Murphy; toss-up, with no heroes.

Michele Smith is re-elected (43rd): 55 percent. Vulnerable, but Derek Lindblom not the one.

James Cappleman is re-elected (46th): 50 percent. Wounded incumbent may eke out a win unless challenger Marianne Lalonde can consolidate the rest of the field who also took on JC in round one. Make it so!

Matt Martin is elected (47th): 60 percent. Beat Michael Negron (D-Rahm) by 18 points in round one; no reason to think that margin will fall by much.

Melissa Conyears-Ervin wins city treasurer: 60 percent. Machine pick has the money - and Gariepy's endorsement.

Ameya Pawar wins city treasurer: 40 percent. Needs big-time endorsement to change the dynamic.

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Propositions

Over/Under on number of aldermen caught on Danny Solis's wire who will be indicted: 2.5. Get in now while the number is that low.

Over/Under on number of aldermen currently wearing a wire not counting Solis: 1.5. You don't think he's it, do you?

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on March 12, 2019


MUSIC - Tween Shitbag.
TV - 24 Hours With Lakeshore TV.
POLITICS - UIC Strikers Appeal To Pritzker.
SPORTS - The Eloy Miracle.

BOOKS - Poetic Nightmares 4 A World Gone Mad.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - The Clown School Coming Here.


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