Chicago - Feb. 27, 2015
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Rahm Emanuel is forced into a runoff: 46.5 percent. Preckwinkle might have taken him straight up.

Chuy Garcia is Rahm's opponent if he is forced into a runoff: 99 percent. Unless he's indicted between now and Election Day, he's won second place. And even then.

Bob Fioretti is Rahm's opponent if he is forced into a runoff: .5 percent. He's just gotta worry about beating Willie Wilson; with such a poor showing, his dream of any other higher office is evaporating before his eyes.

Willie Wilson is Rahm's opponent if he is forced into a runoff: .49 percent. Assclown allowed to suck up limited media resources without proper scrutiny because they're afraid of being called racist.

Dock Walls is Rahm's opponent if he is forced into a runoff: .01 percent. The others could get into a car accident at the same intersection.

column_pol_odds.gifThe progressive caucus loses members: 15 percent. Rahm's Super PAC not having the expected impact despite the most disingenuous mailers ever. Also, anyone taken out likely to be replaced by new progressives elsewhere.

Chuy Garcia is ever heard from again: 1 percent. This is Chicago; he could always be indicted. But otherwise, no. Back to the sleepy county board.

Willie Wilson is ever heard from again: 100 percent. He's got a lot of money. Future candidates will court him now that he's established himself as a major league pigeon.

Dock Walls is ever heard from again: 100 percent. He'll either be arrested or on every ballot for the next four years and then in the 2019 mayoral race.

Toni Preckwinkle ever tells us the real reason she didn't run for mayor: 0 percent. Too much of a team player.

Toni Preckwinkle ever tells us why she didn't campaign for her floor leader: 0 percent. She'd have to be asked first, for starters.

Joe Berrios is indicted: 50 percent. Seems like just a matter of time, yet there he is, still a free man.

Toni Preckwinkle will go to her grave defending Berrios: 100 percent. She's a team player.

Anita Alvarez wins re-election: 25 percent. Sharks are circling, but will anyone really have the guts to pull the trigger?

Obama library goes to U of C: 90 percent. Barack and Michelle don't give a shit if the library is in the same city they live in, which will be New York.

Arne Duncan ever comes clean about clouting Rauner's kid into Payton: 5 percent. Only a deathbed epiphany that he's been a real douche.

Aaron Schock is indicted: 25 percent. FEC will slap him on the wrist in the least.

Bruce Rauner is indicted: 25 percent. He's already abusing power.

Evelyn Sanguinetti is indicted: 25 percent. Ignorance is no excuse.

Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.

Michael Madigan is indicted: 1 percent. Down a tick with Metra mess seemingly behind him.

Richard M. Daley is indicted: .5 percent. Down half a tick; can't even drag him into court anymore. The Great White Whale who got away.

Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.

Mark Kirk wins re-election: 10 percent. Down another 10 percent as he becomes absolutely bonkers; Dems starting to line up.

Anyone ever touts the endorsements of Mike Ditka and Roland Burris again: 15 percent. Maybe Dock Walls gets lucky.

Bobby Rush gets rewarded for endorsing Rahm: 1 percent. Not the way the game is played when you have no leverage.

Luis Gutierrez gets rewarded for endorsing Rahm: 25 percent. Quid pro something, but Luis will learn about Rahm the hard way.

Susana Mendoza gets rewarded for endorsing Rahm: 25 percent. He might return the favor someday; then again, she also voted for Sposato. Total opportunist.

Kurt Summers gets elected to something someday: 25 percent. Would probably prefer to cash in; total operator.

Rahm closes more schools: 100 percent. He can't wait.

The Infrastructure Trust lasts another year: 75 percent. Just out of spite.

Barack and Michelle return to Chicago: 1 percent. Maybe if one of the kids goes to U of C, but probably not even then. I mean, it's a cow town.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Propositions
Over/Under on how many progressive aldermen Rahm takes out: 1.5.

Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: March 2015. But who knows, he's fooled us up to now.

Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2015. But who knows, she's fooled us up to know.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Patrick O'Connor, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on February 20, 2015


MUSIC - Garth Brooks vs. The Dead.
TV - Rahmfeld.
POLITICS - Rahm's Next Job.
SPORTS - Fantasy Draft Guide: Rizzo vs. Abreu.

BOOKS - Graham Crackers, Malcolm X & Cubs Fans.

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