Chicago - Sep. 1, 2014
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Pat Quinn is re-elected: 55 percent. Holding steady, but let's face it: We've seen everything we're gonna see except the Payton ad.

Bruce Rauner is elected: 45 percent. Holding steady, but only because the media lets him lie with impunity; they want a race.

Rahm Emanuel is re-elected: 90 percent. Another week without a viable opponent - to Chicago's shame.

column_pol_odds.gifKaren Lewis runs for mayor: 40 percent. Up five ticks. Sounding more serious, but will she step aside for Fioretti?

Bob Fioretti runs for mayor: 50 percent. Holding steady. Sounding more serious, but Hamlet act already getting old.

Some people claim a woman is to blame: 100 percent. But I know it's my own damn fault.

Paul Vallas destroys Evelyn Sanguinetti in a debate: 50 percent. Only if the Rauner campaign allows her to attend.

Judy Baar Topinka wins re-election: 95 percent. Media giving her a pass on Sheila Simon's only chance.

Tom Cross is our next treasurer: 70 percent. Frerichs campaign is a disaster but it the impact of the governor's race could still be a factor.

Patrick Daley Thompson is the next 11th Ward alderman: 99 percent. More groundwork laid already than Fioretti or Lewis mayoral runs.

Dick Durbin is re-elected: 99 percent. Unless he's caught in bed with a live horse or a dead horse.

Bill Foster wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Brad Schneider wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Rodney Davis wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. See Foster, Schneider.

Lisa Madigan is re-elected state attorney general: 99 percent. Won't even need daddy's help to beat sacrificial Republican, despite what bullshit polls say.

Anita Alvarez is re-elected: 90 percent. You can't beat an incompetent with nobody - especially in Cook County.

Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.

Michael Madigan is indicted: 2 percent. Maybe the Metra mess leads somewhere.

Richard M. Daley is indicted: 1 percent. The Great White Whale who got away.

Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.

Mark Kirk wins re-election: 30 percent. Down another five ticks on the general impression that he's lost his mind.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Obama library goes anywhere other than U of C: 0 percent. Maybe branches elsewhere, but Axelrod's Institute is paving the path. Plus, Obama's an elitist.

Propositions
Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: September. Heart attack gives him excuse; end of summer shooting season will be good timing.

Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2015. Given McCarthy, Rahm will seek one more school year out of her.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Patrick O'Connor, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on August 29, 2014


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