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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Lori Lightfoot is elected mayor: 60 percent. Frankly, it could be higher than that. It looks like a landslide, folks. UPDATE 4/3: Landslide, roughly 75% to 25%. She now rules Chicago.

Toni Preckwinkle is elected mayor: 40 percent. Frankly, it could be lower than that. It looks like a shellacking, folks. UPDATE 4/3: Four years left as county board president; perhaps sheriff Tom Dart and chief judge Tim Evans will feel emboldened?

column_pol_odds.gifPatrick O'Connor is re-elected: 50 percent. Will Lightfoot coattails deliver the final blow? Also, note that it's Lightfoot's coattails, not Preckwinkle's, that threaten him (for example, SEIU supports Toni and Pat). UPDATE 4/3: Not even close; loses 54-46 to the council's best new battle rapper, Andre Vasquez.

Leslie Hairston (5th) is re-elected: 50 percent. Down ten ticks on craven CBA flip-flop, even though it's the right stance. Time for a change. UPDATE 4/3: Looks like this one is headed to a recount.

Rod Sawyer (6th) is re-elected 50 percent. Like Hairston, lackluster alderman vulnerable in change election. UPDATE 4/3: Sawyer, 54-46.

Ray Lopez (15th) is re-elected: 50 percent. Challenger (and Chuy Garcia ally) Rafael Yanez has a chance. UPDATE 4/3: Rahm's Ray, 59-41.

Toni Foulkes (16th) is re-elected: 55 percent. Foulkes ekes it out against Stephanie Coleman just like she did four years ago. UPDATE 4/3: Wow, Coleman wipes out Foulkes in a landslide.

Jeanette B. Taylor is elected (20th): 51 percent. Former Dyett hunger striker squeaks by Nicole Johnson. UPDATE 4/3: Taylor, 60-40.

Howard Brookins is re-elected (21st): 50 percent. Last minute infusion of $25K by Rahm speaks to vulnerability; see Hairston, Sawyer. UPDATE 4/3: Brookins, 53-47. Is a challenge to Kim Foxx next?

Alex Acevedo is elected (25th): 50 percent. Ugly race against Byron Sigcho-Lopez will just get uglier; toss-up. UPDATE 4/3: Byron, 54-46.

Ariel Reboyras is re-elected (30th): 50 percent. No one to root for here; challenger is Luis Gutierrez's daughter. UPDATE 4/3: Rahm's boy over Luis's girl, 52-48.

Milly Santiago is re-elected (31st): 60 percent. A stronger challenger could knock her off. UPDATE 4/3: Felix Cardona with the upset, 52-46.

Deb Mell is re-elected (33rd): 45 percent. Please, no; challenger Rossana Rodriguez could be the shining light of new aldermen. UPDATE 4/3: This one's headed to a recount.

Samantha Nugent is elected (39th): 50 percent. Margaret Laurino protege trying to replace her retiring mentor vs. ward committeeman Robert Murphy; toss-up, with no heroes. UPDATE 4/3: Nugent, 55-45,

Michele Smith is re-elected (43rd): 55 percent. Vulnerable, but Derek Lindblom not the one. UPDATE 4/3: Smith, 54-46.

James Cappleman is re-elected (46th): 45 percent. Down ten ticks on Lightfoot support of challenger Marianne Lalonde (and ham-handed handling of Lincoln Yards). UPDATE 4/3: This one, too, is headed to a recount.

Matt Martin is elected (47th): 60 percent. Beat Michael Negron (D-Rahm) by 18 points in round one; no reason to think that margin will fall by much. UPDATE 4/3: Martin, 63-37

Melissa Conyears-Ervin wins city treasurer: 60 percent. Machine pick has the money. UPDATE 4/3: MCE, 60-40.

Ameya Pawar wins city treasurer: 40 percent. Failed to change the dynamic, falls short. UPDATE 4/3: MCE, 60-40.



Over/Under on number of aldermen caught on Danny Solis's wire who will be indicted: 2.5. A good price, folks.

Over/Under on number of aldermen currently wearing a wire not counting Solis: 1.5. You don't think he's it, do you?


Comments welcome.


Posted on April 1, 2019

MUSIC - Fender Breaks Record.
TV - Let The Children Starve.
POLITICS - COVID Workplace Bullshit.
SPORTS - Sox Season In Verse.

BOOKS - A Lab Of Her Own.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - Polyak Promoted.

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