Chicago - Jul. 2, 2015
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

The new Rahm is different than the old Rahm: 1 percent. Please.

The new city council is different than the old city council: 1 percent. Please.

Rahm's pension solution kicks the can down the road: 99 percent. His tough choice is to pray for a dysfunctional Springfield and a non-existent casino to save us.

column_pol_odds.gifThe CTU will strike: 50 percent. Rahm will push them into it if it suits his political needs.

Rahm will raise property taxes: 100%. How many resorts are left until we get to the last one?

Rahm will cast raising property taxes as a "tough choice:" 100%. He's tough when he doesn't raise 'em, tough when he does. Everything he does is tough. Even his love is tough. He's that selfless.

Rahm pursues his proposed broadening of the sales tax: 0%. He proposed it four years ago too. And he will four years from now.

Rahm reneges on his "plan" to dedicate all casino revenues to pensions: 100%. It'll be a "tough choice."

Rahm runs for re-election in 2019: 50 percent. Fallback position if nothing else materializes.

Chuy Garcia is ever heard from again: 1 percent. Crawls back to Toni Preckwinkle's disloyal embrace.

Toni Preckwinkle runs for re-election in 2018: 50 percent. Unless she retires; in her last job.

Bruce Rauner turns around Illinois: 0 percent. Would have to turn around Michael Madigan first.

Lisa Madigan runs in 2019: 0 percent. Would have to turn around Michael Madigan first.

Joe Berrios is indicted: 50 percent. Seems like just a matter of time, yet there he is, still a free man.

Obama Library goes to Washington Park: 50 percent. Seems like this was decided a long time ago.

Obama Library goes to Jackson Park: 50 percent. Washington Park a diversion; Jackson Park more ready-made.

The Star Wars museum gets built: 80 percent. Only the courts can stop it now.

The Star Wars museum gets built on time: 1 percent. Only if a rogue contractor finds the one weakness in the Chicago Death Star.

Rauner signs a pension reform bill this year: 0 percent. But one might pass anyway on a veto override.

Tammy Duckworth wins the Dem nomination for U.S. Senate: 65 percent. Andrea Zopp is a joke, but someone else could still snatch it away from such a weak candidate.

Mark Kirk wins the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate: 65 percent. Prohibitive favorite for re-election but someone else could still snatch it away from such a weakened candidate.

Dick Durbin runs for re-election in 2020: 50 percent. Tireless but he'll be 76 and he just lost his shot at majority leader.

Bobby Rush gets rewarded for endorsing Rahm: 1 percent. Not the way the game is played when you have no leverage.

Luis Gutierrez gets rewarded for endorsing Rahm: 25 percent. Quid pro something, but Luis will learn about Rahm the hard way.

Susana Mendoza gets rewarded for endorsing Rahm: 25 percent. He might return the favor someday; then again, she also voted for Sposato. Total opportunist.

Kurt Summers gets elected to something someday: 25 percent. Would probably prefer to cash in; total operator.

Rahm closes more schools: 100 percent. He can't wait.

The Infrastructure Trust lasts another year: 75 percent. Just out of spite.

Barack and Michelle return to Chicago: 0 percent. They may visit if one of their kids somehow, some way, gets into the University of Chicago, though.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Propositions
Over/Under on the number of aldermen who will be indicted before the next election: 3.5.

Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: September 2015. It almost looks like he intends to stay, which is a surprise to us.

Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2015. But who knows, she's fooled us up to now. UPDATE: She went out the Chicago Way.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Patrick O'Connor, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Daley relative most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Patrick Daley, Patrick Daley Thompson.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on June 8, 2015


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