Chicago - Jan. 26, 2015
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

Special post-election commentary in bold.

The chance that . . .

Pat Quinn is re-elected: 51.5 percent. Down one last tick as the race tightens into Election Day; it's a cliche, but it's all about the ground game now. It tightened alright; around Quinn's neck.

Bruce Rauner is elected: 48.5 percent. Up one last tick; will he empty his campaign acount getting people to the polls? Yes - to the tune of 10,000 game-day workers on the ground.

If Quinn wins . . . Vallas stays in LG job for a whole term: 50 percent. Only if he has designs on getting a promotion in four years - which presumably was why he joined the ticket. Moot.

If Rauner wins . . . Sanguinetti stays in LG job for a whole term: 50 percent. She'll get eaten alive in do-nothing job. She may not even survive the transition she's allegedly leading.

column_pol_odds.gifDick Durbin is re-elected: 99 percent. Was vulnerable to the right opponent. Yup.

Jim Oberweis runs for office again: 50 percent. Maybe he'll move into the city and give mayor a try, now that he has black pastor friends. Or never cross the city line again. Corey who?

Judy Baar Topinka wins re-election: 95 percent. Media giving her a pass on Sheila Simon's only chance. If only she ordered a hot dog with ketchup. Everyone's favorite aunt.

Sheila Simon ever holds state office again: 0 percent. Dems won't even want to borrow her name anymore. End of a brand.

Tom Cross is our next treasurer: 80 percent. And possibly our next Republican nominee for governor. Case for 2018 not helped by closeness of race.

Lisa Madigan is re-elected state attorney general: 99 percent. Won't even need daddy's help to beat sacrificial Republican. Still can't run in four years, though, if daddy's still the Speaker.

Bill Foster wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging. Yup.

Brad Schneider wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging. Nope. Just flat out wrong.

Rodney Davis wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. See Foster, Schneider. Yup.

Rahm Emanuel is re-elected: 85 percent. Luckiest pol this side of Pat Quinn.

Chuy Garcia: 7.5 percent. Appears to have the blessings of Toni Preckwinkle and Karen Lewis, but starting late with little organization and less money. Can he galvanize a movement?

Bob Fioretti is elected: 7.5 percent. Chuy "hurts" him, but remember, it's all about forcing a runoff now, so every vote against Rahm is a vote against Rahm.

Toni Preckwinkle joins the race: 0 percent. Too loyal to party, too comfortable at County, too unwilling to directly challenge power. That's your tombstone, Toni.

Karen Lewis is elected: 0 percent. Not even CTU president anymore.

Patrick Daley Thompson is the next 11th Ward alderman: 99 percent. Is he for or agin' Rahm? You never know, 'cause the Daleys are really only for the Daleys.

The city council is ready for reform: 14%. At best.

Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.

Michael Madigan is indicted: 2 percent. Maybe the Metra mess leads somewhere.

Richard M. Daley is indicted: 1 percent. The Great White Whale who got away.

Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.

Mark Kirk wins re-election: 20 percent. Turning into a raving lunatic before our eyes; Dems starting to line up.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Obama library goes anywhere other than U of C: 0 percent. Maybe branches elsewhere, but Axelrod's Institute is paving the path. Plus, Obama's an elitist.

Over/Under on how many progressive aldermen Rahm takes out: 1.5.

Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: March 2015. Too close to election now.

Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2015. She wants out now, but has to coordinate departure with McCarthy.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Patrick O'Connor, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.


Comments welcome.


Posted on November 6, 2014

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