Chicago - Jan. 16, 2019
Music TV Politics Sports Books People Places & Things
 
Beachwood Politics
Our monthly archive.
Who We Are
Chicago by the numbers.
Sausage Links
Wiki Daley
Wiki Rahm
Illinois Channel
CAN TV
Ralph Martire
Doonesbury
Government Attic
Division Street
Indie Political Report
The Obameter
ProPublica
The Intercept
SCOTUS Blog
American Dream Betrayed

Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Toni Preckwinkle gets elected mayor: 45 percent. Down five ticks on inability to anticipate and deflect opponent (and media) attacks.

Susana Mendoza gets elected mayor: 30 percent. Down five ticks on a vacuous, craven campaign.

Bill Daley gets elected mayor: 5 percent. Holding steady because who wants to admit he could be a factor?

column_pol_odds.gifLori Lightfoot gets elected mayor: 5 percent. Up two ticks as folks look around for an alternative.

Amara Enyia gets elected mayor: 5 percent. Up four ticks as folks looks around for an alternative, but this is probably her ceiling unless Chase drops some cash quick.

Gery Chico gets elected mayor: 5 percent. Up five ticks as he goes on attack, though he also looks hacky doing it.

Garry McCarthy gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Disingenuous campaign can't escape Laquan McDonald's shadow.

Paul Vallas gets elected mayor: 5 percent. Up five ticks for demonstrating budget proficiency.

Willie Wilson gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Can pull just enough black votes to wreak havoc, but not nearly enough to make a runoff. Also, just plain out to lunch.

Dorothy Brown gets elected mayor: 0 percent. The church vote isn't as big as it used to be; might not even make the ballot.

Jeremiah Joyce Jr. gets elected mayor: 0 percent. No shot but advertising his willingness to play.

LaShawn Ford gets elected mayor: 0 percent. What's his endgame? Delusional or signaling.

Bob Fioretti gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Once-promising alderman now perennial joke candidate on the grift.

Neal Sales-Griffin gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Please. UPDATE: OUT

Ja'Mal Green gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Dude. UPDATE: OUT

John Kozlar gets elected mayor: 0 percent. Doesn't even have name recognition in his own family.

Ed Burke wins re-election: 40 percent. Down 10 ticks on indictment aftermath, but don't count him out.

Rahm runs for president: 0 percent. Of CNN, maybe.

Bruce Rauner runs for office again: 0 percent. Not here, at least; maybe in Montana.

JB Pritzker gets indicted: 50 percent. That's where the line starts for any Illinois governor.

Elon Musk's O'Hare tunnel thingie gets built: 5 percent. Down five ticks. Rahm was his lifeline; now his lonely eyes turn to Susana Mendoza.

-

Propositions

Over/Under on number of mayoral candidates who make the ballot: 10 UPDATE: Looks like the over as petition challengers lose their nerve.

Over/Under on number of aldermen who will be indicted before the next city council election: 4. Hurry up, feds, transcribe those tapes!

Over/Under on number of aldermen currently wearing a wire: 1.5. There's always at least one.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Jason Ervin, Howard Brookins, Anthony Beale, Emma Mitts, Walter Burnett, George Cardenas, Carrie Austin, Danny Solis, Patrick O'Connor.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Daley relative most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Patrick Daley, Patrick Daley Thompson.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending probability: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

Former county officeholder most likely to be indicted: Joe Berrios.

Over/Under on how long Janice Jackson lasts as CPS CEO: 12 months. The only question is what will force her out.

Over/Under on how long Eddie Johnson lasts as CPD Supt.: 6 months. Unless the next mayor is Mendoza, he's outta here.

-

Comments welcome.



Permalink

Posted on January 14, 2019


MUSIC - #MuteRKelly.
TV - NBC Reporter's Kiss-Off.
POLITICS - IL Could Recover $1.3B In Corporate Tax Loopholes.
SPORTS - The Ex-Cub Factor.

BOOKS - Myopic 2000.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - Mailbox Fishing.


Search The Beachwood Reporter

Subscribe To Our Newsletter
Email:

Follow BeachwoodReport on Twitter



Beachwood Radio!