Chicago - Apr. 24, 2015
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Rahm Emanuel wins the runoff: 55 percent. I wish it weren't so, but the majority of Chicago voters are still douchebags. Post-election results: 55.6.

Chuy Garcia wins the runoff: 45 percent. A "movement" isn't made in four months; neither is a winning mayoral campaign in Chicago. Post-election results: 44.3.

column_pol_odds.gifToni Preckwinkle ever tells us the real reason she didn't run for mayor: 0 percent. Too much of a team player - and the team is coached by Joe Berrios.

Toni Preckwinkle ever tells us why she didn't campaign for her floor leader: 0 percent. She'd have to be asked first, for starters.

Joe Berrios is indicted: 50 percent. Seems like just a matter of time, yet there he is, still a free man.

Toni Preckwinkle will go to her grave defending Berrios: 100 percent. She's a team player...

Rahm has really changed: 0 percent. Are you freaking kidding me?

Second-term Rahm will be kinder, gentler: 0 percent. No. More like "Dead! Dead! Dead!"

City council is less of a rubber stamp in Rahm's second term: 0 percent. If anything, Rahm's power will be consolidated even more.

The Chuy "movement" will survive to provide a loyal opposition to Rahmism: 0 percent. Where were they five months ago?

Rahm will raise property taxes: 100%. How many resorts are left until we get to the last one?

Rahm will cast raising property taxes as a "tough choice:" 100%. He's tough when he doesn't raise 'em, tough when he does. Everything he does is tough. Even his love is tough. He's that selfless.

Rahm pursues his proposed broadening of the sales tax: 0%. He proposed it four years ago too. And he will four years from now.

Rahm reneges on his "plan" to dedicate all casino revenues to pensions: 100%. It'll be a tough choice.

Chicago gets the Obama library: 50 percent. Down 40 points on delay that seems designed to protect Rahm from bad news during the campaign, yet still a mystery.

The Star Wars museum gets built: 80 percent. Only the courts can stop it once Rahm wins re-election.

The Illinois Supreme Court rules in favor of the pension bill: 30%. Most likely it's back to the drawing board for Rahm & Co. As it should be.

Rahm becomes even more of a dick to the press in a second term: 100%. Why wouldn't he? It works because the press is afraid of its bully.

Bobby Rush gets rewarded for endorsing Rahm: 1 percent. Not the way the game is played when you have no leverage.

Luis Gutierrez gets rewarded for endorsing Rahm: 25 percent. Quid pro something, but Luis will learn about Rahm the hard way.

Susana Mendoza gets rewarded for endorsing Rahm: 25 percent. He might return the favor someday; then again, she also voted for Sposato. Total opportunist.

Kurt Summers gets elected to something someday: 25 percent. Would probably prefer to cash in; total operator.

Rahm closes more schools: 100 percent. He can't wait.

The Infrastructure Trust lasts another year: 75 percent. Just out of spite.

Barack and Michelle return to Chicago: 1 percent. Maybe if one of the kids goes to U of C, but probably not even then. I mean, it's a cow town.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Propositions
Over/Under on how many progressive aldermen Rahm takes out: 1.5.

Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: September 2015. But who knows, he's fooled us up to now.

Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2015. But who knows, she's fooled us up to now.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Patrick O'Connor, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on April 10, 2015


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