Chicago - Jul. 21, 2014
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Rahm Emanuel is re-elected: 85 percent. Up five ticks on Preckwinkle officially bailing; could be the most unpopular public official ever re-elected.

Toni Preckwinkle runs for mayor: 25 percent. Rahm Emanuel, heartless. Toni Preckwinkle, gutless.

column_pol_odds.gifKaren Lewis runs for mayor: 40 percent. Up 30 ticks on Preckwinkle officially bailing; we've said all along that she'd only run if no one else did, and that's what it's beginning to look like.

Bob Fioretti runs for mayor: 55 percent. A clearer path but we still sense hesitation.

Scott Waguespack runs for mayor: 1 percent. You know what? Just do it. Maybe the city's ready after all.

Pat Quinn is re-elected: 55 percent. Down 2.5 ticks simply on Pat Quinn Fatigue.

Bruce Rauner is elected: 45 percent. Up 2.5 ticks simply to make up the difference.

George Ryan finds a publisher for his upcoming memoir: 99%. Confidential sources say the manuscript is complete and he is passing it out to close and trusted friends.

Ryan's book will tell the truth: 0%. The man is unrepentant.

Rod Blagojevich is released from prison early: 10%. A shakedown is a shakedown, no matter how much local political reporters want to believe otherwise; only shot is if Obama seat portion of conviction is vacated and that lops off the rest of his sentence.

The Star Wars Museum lands on the lakefront: 50 percent. Seems like a wired deal, but also seems like the courts will decide.

Jim Oberweis gets seven debates with Dick Durbin: 1 percent. Seven minutes is enough.

Bill Foster wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Brad Schneider wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Rodney Davis wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. See Foster, Schneider.

The defeated Toni Berrios winds up on a public payroll: 99 percent. Otherwise, what's the point of being a Berrios?

Joe Berrios is indicted: 51 percent. Ruling on inspector general pushes him above 50 for the first time.

Lisa Madigan is re-elected state attorney general: 99 percent. Won't even need daddy's help to beat sacrificial Republican.

Tom Cross is our next state treasurer: 60 percent. Could get Rauner dollars.

Sheila Simon is our next state comptroller: 1 percent. Will get walloped by Judy Baar Topinka; lite guv not looking so bad now.

Juan Rangel is indicted: 60 percent. The ABCs of UNO should give feds multiple choices.

Anita Alvarez is re-elected: 90 percent. You can't beat an incompetent with nobody - especially in Cook County.

Anita Alvarez is prosecuted for misconduct: 10 percent. Feds would be remiss not to look, but Patrick Fitzgerald ain't around anymore.

Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.

Michael Madigan is indicted: 2 percent. Maybe the Metra mess leads somewhere.

Richard M. Daley is indicted: 1 percent. The Great White Whale who got away.

Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.

Mark Kirk wins re-election: 35 percent. Down another five ticks on intemperate border kids comments; increasingly seems vulnerable and Dem sharks are circling.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Obama library goes anywhere other than U of C: 0 percent. Maybe branches elsewhere, but Axelrod's Institute is paving the path. Plus, Obama's an elitist.

Propositions
Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: June 2014. This is the month! Heart attack gives him an out. UPDATE: Double-down on August 1st.

Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2014. This is the month! Has no heart. UPDATE: See McCarthy.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts, Patrick O'Connor.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder besides Berrios likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on July 16, 2014


MUSIC - The [Monster] Weekend In Chicago Rock.
TV - Tribune To Arsenio, Cubs: Drop Dead.
POLITICS - The Beachwood Radio Hour: Preckwinkle's Guts, Rahm's Cheesecakes & The Navy Pier Polka.
SPORTS - SportsMonday: Offseason City. White Sox Report: Beyond The Cell. Cub Factor: Minor Threat.

BOOKS - CPS Chief Caught In Librarian Lie.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - Chicagoetry: Little Wing.


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