Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Obama wins re-election: 56 percent. Party, media will rally behind him. The country will be in no mood for a change in four years.

Jesse Jackson Jr. replaces Obama: 40 percent. Holding steady as aggressive posturing negates increasing buzz. Will he make a deal with Blago?

Jan Schakowsky replaces Obama: 10 percent. Holding steady. Blago's incredibly dwindling base is still mostly African American.

Kwame Raoul replaces Obama: 40 percent. Hard to rationalize vaulting him above Junior, but he is Emil Jones's choice.

The Who Would Replace Jackson speculation begins this week: 50 percent. Maybe next week.

Dan Hynes replaces Obama: 1 percent. Down four ticks. Obama's comptroller?

Bill Daley replaces Obama: 10 percent. He supposedly doesn't want to work in Washington, but maybe this is the deal Blago needs to make. Nah. Make it 1 percent.

Patrick Fitzgerald replaces Obama: .1 percent. Blago's plan to remove him finally works! Daley also lobbying.

Someone else replaces Obama: 50 percent. If Obama is really behind the pick, think imaginatively. (Gery Chico?) If Blago makes the pick, think idiotic. If Quinn makes the pick, think Quinn!

Valerie Jarrett replaces Obama: 10 percent. Down 10 percent. Demographics are appealing, but too insidery. Headed to Cabinet or White House. SOURCES SEEM TO HAVE CONFIRMED SHE"S WHITE HOUSE-BOUND.

Rod Blagojevich names himself to the Senate if Obama wins the presidency: 50 percent. Wholly dependent on how it could help his legal defense.

Patti Blagojevich replaces Obama: 10 percent. If it will keep her mouth shut, then yes.

Daley fesses up about Burge: 1 percent. Only if alligator clips are attached to his testicles.

Burge harms Daley at the polls: 1 percent. Daley could torture a black suspect on WGN before a Cubs game and he wouldn't be harmed at the polls.

The Illinois delegation follows Obama's lead and stops earmark requests: 0 percent. Right! And they'll oppose FISA too!

Dick Durbin replaces Harry Reid: 30 percent. In reality, yes. In actual title, the Chicago Way will need cover.

Rahm Emanuel replaces Nancy Pelosi: 30 percent. In reality, yes. In actual title, the Chicago Way will need cover. EMANUEL NAMED WH CHIEF OF STAFF.

Tom Allen replaces Emanuel: 10 percent. The Daleys need a hack in this seat, but not a hacky hack.

Deb Mell replaces Emanuel: 10 percent. Don't underestimate Dick Mell, but geez!

Tom Tunney replaces Emanuel: 40 percent. He'll play ball.

John Fritchey replaces Emanuel: 45 percent. Could be too independent, but also has the most upside.

John Cullerton replaces Emil Jones: 35 percent. A front-runner, but too close to Madigan?

James Clayborne replaces Emil Jones: 35 percent. Downstate balance, African American. But can he break the gridlock?

Someone else replaces Emil Jones: 30 percent. Compromise candidate still possible.

Rod Blagojevich is under indictment by December: 50 percent. Just a matter of how soon it takes to complete the paperwork.

Patti Blago is indicted before Rod Blago: 50 percent. The big question: Will she roll over on him?

Tony Rezko flips on Blago: 95 percent. Up 20 points. He's singing like a bird. Wouldn't you?

Rod Blagojevich runs for re-election: 90 percent. After all, you can issue press releases from prison.

Jody Weis lasts another year: 50 percent. I mean, it's a disaster.

Todd Stroger runs for re-election: 95 percent. Up 10 points. His cluelessness is unabated. Fundraising has started. Will Obama endorse?

Bill Daley runs for governor: 20 percent. He's started polling but I'm still skeptical. Trying to leverage the race?

Pat Quinn runs for governor: 95 percent. Up five percent. He'll have the power of incumbency.

Lisa Madigan is our next governor: 0 percent. After all, Pat Quinn will have to serve out Blago's term first.

Mark Kirk runs for governor: 25 percent. Up 20 ticks. He seems to have sealed up a swing district. Will run for governor or Senate only if polls favor him. Otherwise, he bides his time.

Barack Obama supports Alexi Giannoulias for governor: 50 percent. It's the, uh, new politics. Alexi's wealth has freed him from a broken system. Hell, he may be Obama's Treasury Secretary.

President Obama walks hand in hand with Mayor Daley as they visit the Children's Museum in Grant Park and then open the 2016 Olympics: 35 percent. Maybe by then one of them will be politically toxic. Maybe.

President Bush commutes George Ryan's sentence: 25 percent. Only if a favor to Rove figures in somehow.

President Obama pardons Blago: 5 percent. Down 10 ticks. Who needs him?

President Obama names Richard M. Daley to the U.S. Supreme Court: 0 percent. Just a thought exercise. But the Daley brothers will suddenly end up with the United States' insurance business.

Chicago lands the 2016 Olympics: 18 percent. Holding steady. Really, impossible to read.

Seventh Ward Ald. Sandi Jackson runs for mayor next: 10 percent. Not showing much. Maybe she'll take her husband's congressional seat if he replaces Obama.

Paul Vallas runs for mayor: 5 percent. Won't challenge Daley, but if and when Daley is gone, the odds shoot up if he isn't already governor.

Ron Huberman is on his way out: 55 percent. Down 20 ticks. Not what the mayor needs right now; funding crisis has overtaken crappy management as chief concern. But he should have been the police chief.

Todd Stroger hires more relatives: 50 percent. Would be higher but are there any left not on the payroll?

Rod Blagojevich flips on himself: 60 percent. He's just crazy enough to do it!

Daley gets indicted: 40 percent. At the very least, Patrick Fitzgerald will one day say that - like the vice president - a cloud hangs over this mayor.

Daley gives a press conference without appearing angry and defensive: 1 percent. It's almost as if he's hiding something.

Daley is indicted before Blagojevich: 1 percent. Down four ticks. Things are moving too fast on the gov.

Daley has never known about, approved, condoned, benefited and been pleased with the criminal nature of his administration: 0 percent. He had no idea what all these indicted people were doing on his behalf all these years?

Your bus or train will be on-time today: 3 percent. Sometimes shit happens.

Propositions
Over/Under on the number of times Michelle Obama's horrid fashion sense will be compared to Jackie O's in the next six months: 34,298.

Over/Under on the number of times Fran Spielman will use the phrase "Daley's Olympic dream" through the end of the year: 64. It's also about the children.

Over/Under on how many more times the Blagojevich administration responds to allegations by saying "We don't operate that way" before the gov is indicted: 12.

Over/Under on how many issues Daley accuses his opponents of being racists on before the next election: 2.

Over/Under on how many more times Todd Stroger will try to explain that it's the media's fault: 3 times a week until he's out of office.

Over/Under on Hired Truck convictions: 51. Number moves south, too much under action. So far, 49 have been charged; 46 have been convicted; and one fell off a horse and died before trial.

Over/Under on the number of trains that catch fire during Ron Huberman's tenure: 5. Derailments the new trend.