Chicago - Apr. 18, 2014
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Pat Quinn is re-elected: 70 percent. Opens as the prohibitive favorite despite a media spoiling for a bloodbath; Rauner is equal parts Montgomery Burns and Mitt Romney, and a huge gamble at a time when voters are already feeling insecure.

Paul Vallas keeps quiet: 50 percent. The best candidate on the ballot could be a great asset on the campaign trail - or a great distraction in need of being locked in a closet. UPDATE 4/8: Not a good look.

Bruce Rauner clarifies Payton, minimum wage positions: 0 percent. Too late, but pressing Arne Duncan and the Payton principal would be nice.

Evelyn Sanguinetti is ever heard from again: 10 percent. Embarrassing Election Night remarks paled next to Vallas's impressive performance, but mostly people are still saying, Who?

column_pol_odds.gifJim Oberweis defeats Dick Durbin: 1 percent. Wrong guy for a tough job.

Lisa Madigan is re-elected state attorney general: 99 percent. Won't even need daddy's help to beat sacrificial Republican.

Tom Cross is our next state treasurer: 60 percent. Opens with more name recognition and juice than Dem opponent Mike Frerichs; could also get Rauner dollars.

Sheila Simon is our next state comptroller: 1 percent. Will get walloped by Judy Baar Topinka; lite guv not looking so bad now.

Toni Preckwinkle is re-elected at County: 99 percent. Only a sudden onset of Tourette's can derail her now.

Toni Preckwinkle runs for mayor: 2 percent. Up on tick on recent microscopic wiggle room; she would win, but she's never had the stomach for direct challenges to power.

Tom Dart runs for mayor: 1 percent. The only other person out there who would have a chance, but no signs he's reconsidering previous refusals.

Bob Fioretti runs for mayor: 20 percent. Up ten ticks as progressive caucus begins push; if Toni says No, Bob will go.

Bob Shaw is a shill: 90 percent. Someone friendly to Rahm surely put him up to this.

Karen Lewis runs for mayor: 1 percent. Clearly doesn't want the job; acknowledges little expertise in municipal matters outside of education.

Rahm runs virtually unopposed: 99 percent. And with an approval rating in the teens at best. Way to go, Chicago!

Someone (viable) runs against him: 1 percent. Apparently Rahm could be indicted and no one in this town would step up.

Bill Foster wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Brad Schneider wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.

Rodney Davis wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. See Foster, Schneider.

The defeated Toni Berrios winds up on a public payroll: 99 percent. Otherwise, what's the point of being a Berrios?

Joe Berrios is indicted: 51 percent. Ruling on inspector general pushes him above 50 for the first time.

Juan Rangel is indicted: 60 percent. The ABCs of UNO should give feds multiple choices.

Anita Alvarez is re-elected: 90 percent. You can't beat an incompetent with nobody - especially in Cook County.

Anita Alvarez is prosecuted for misconduct: 10 percent. Feds would be remiss not to look, but Patrick Fitzgerald ain't around anymore.

Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.

Michael Madigan is indicted: 2 percent. Maybe the Metra mess leads somewhere.

Richard M. Daley is indicted: 1 percent. The Great White Whale who got away.

Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.

Mark Kirk wins re-election: 50 percent. Seems like his time is up.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Obama library goes anywhere other than U of C: 0 percent. Maybe branches elsewhere, but Axelrod's Institute is paving the path. Plus, Obama's an elitist.

Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2014. She likes to destroy, not maintain.

Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: June 2014. Likes Rush Street but mayor's fingers stuck up his back has to hurt.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts, Patrick O'Connor.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending order, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending order: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder besides Berrios likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.


Comments welcome.


Posted on March 20, 2014

MUSIC - The Week In Chicago Rock.
TV - Tweeting Chicagoland 7: Tripling Down.
POLITICS - The Berrios Family Gets Fifth Term.
SPORTS - Blackhawks Buckle.

BOOKS - Mourning Marquez.

PEOPLE PLACES & THINGS - Beachwood Photo Booth: Bartender Man.

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