Chicago - Jul. 31, 2015
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Political Odds

For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.

The chance that . . .

Gov. Rauner gets his six "turnaround agenda" bills passed: 1%. Welcome to the big leagues, Bruce.

Gov. Rauner gets even one of his "turnaround agenda" bills passed: 2%. Even his own party will abandon him at some point.

Michael Madigan is the worse for wear: 1%. Nobody likes him, but now everybody needs him.

column_pol_odds.gifRauner induces a strike by government workers: 50 percent. If not, won't be for lack of trying.

Kwame Raoul is asked to re-seat his pension committee: 50 percent. Back to the drawing board, though Rauner likely to form his own committee - and give them a week to come up with a plan.

Rod Blagojevich has his sentence reduced: 1%. And that would be a gift.

The CTU will strike: 50 percent. Rahm will push them into it - again - if it suits his political needs. Rauner will look on in envy.

Rahm will raise property taxes: 100%. How many resorts are left until we get to the last one? Just get on with it.

Rahm will cast raising property taxes as a "tough choice:" 100%. He's tough when he doesn't raise 'em, tough when he does. Everything he does is tough. Even his love is tough. He's that selfless. But the choice is easy.

Rahm pursues his proposed broadening of the sales tax: 0%. He proposed it four years ago too. And he will four years from now.

Rahm reneges on his "plan" to dedicate all casino revenues to pensions: 100%. It'll be a "tough choice."

Rahm runs for re-election in 2019: 50 percent. Fallback position if nothing else materializes.

Chuy Garcia is ever heard from again: 1 percent. Crawls back to Toni Preckwinkle's disloyal embrace.

Toni Preckwinkle runs for re-election in 2018: 50 percent. Unless she retires; in her last job.

Bruce Rauner turns around Illinois: 0 percent. Would have to turn around Michael Madigan first.

Lisa Madigan runs in 2019: 0 percent. Would have to turn around Michael Madigan first.

Joe Berrios is indicted: 50 percent. Seems like just a matter of time, yet there he is, still a free man.

Obama Library goes to Washington Park: 50 percent. Seems like this was decided a long time ago.

Obama Library goes to Jackson Park: 50 percent. Washington Park a diversion; Jackson Park more ready-made.

The Star Wars museum gets built: 80 percent. Only the courts can stop it now.

The Star Wars museum gets built on time: 1 percent. Only if a rogue contractor finds the one weakness in the Chicago Death Star.

Tammy Duckworth wins the Dem nomination for U.S. Senate: 65 percent. Andrea Zopp is a joke, but someone else could still snatch it away from such a weak candidate.

Mark Kirk wins the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate: 65 percent. Prohibitive favorite for re-election but someone else could still snatch it away from such a weakened candidate.

Mark Kirk wins re-election to the U.S. Senate: 35 percent. Once-respected moderate is now a blustery gaffe machine.

Dick Durbin runs for re-election in 2020: 50 percent. Tireless but he'll be 76 and he just lost his shot at majority leader.

The Infrastructure Trust lasts another year: 75 percent. Just out of spite.

Barack and Michelle return to Chicago: 0 percent. They may visit if one of their kids somehow, some way, gets into the University of Chicago, though.

Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.

Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.

Propositions
Over/Under on the number of aldermen who will be indicted before the next election: 3.5.

Over/Under on when Garry McCarthy has had enough: September 2015. It almost looks like he intends to stay, which is a surprise to us.

Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2015. But who knows, she's fooled us up to now. UPDATE: She went out the Chicago Way.

Over/Under on how many months Forrest Claypool serves as CPS CEO: 12.

Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Patrick O'Connor, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts.

Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.

Daley relative most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Patrick Daley, Patrick Daley Thompson.

Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.

Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.

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Comments welcome.



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Posted on July 24, 2015


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