For entertainment purposes only. And office pools. Updated as events warrant.
The chance that . . .
Rahm Emanuel is re-elected: 85 percent. Down five ticks upon finally acquiring a somewhat-viable opponent. He still has the upper hand, though, thanks to a few financial elites whose desires outweigh the vast majority of Chicagoans.
Bob Fioretti runs for mayor: 15 percent. A "two cities" campaign was tried repeatedly against Daley and failed each time. Rahm still seems like an outsider to many, though, and somehow that notion may gel with the rest of Fioretti's bill of grievances. (Fioretti grew up in Pullman.)
Karen Lewis runs for mayor: 60 percent. Up ten ticks; says she's just waiting to hit her benchmarks, which seems to make a run inevitable.
Fioretti and Lewis eventually team up: 50 percent. Depends on whether one in the race can beat Rahm outright or two in the race can force him into a runoff; defeating Rahm is ultimate goal so political calculation will be made.
Pat Quinn is re-elected: 55 percent. Holding steady as the drip-drip of NRI and IDOT is met with wine, doves and Ditka. Will oddly begin to seem like the safe choice.
Bruce Rauner is elected: 45 percent. Trash van too much; Ditka goes rogue on Ray Rice - an expensive ad can never be used again. Plus, media starting to turn against obfuscation.
Paul Vallas destroys Evelyn Sanguinetti in a debate: 50 percent. Only if the Rauner campaign allows her to attend.
Rauner campaign plays gender card after said destruction: 100 percent. Will probably cut an ad with Diana - though not Ditka.
Judy Baar Topinka wins re-election: 95 percent. Media giving her a pass on Sheila Simon's only chance.
Sheila Simon ever holds state office again: 1%. Maybe not even dog catcher - unless a Dem needs to borrow her name again.
Tom Cross is our next treasurer: 70 percent. Frerichs campaign is a disaster but it the impact of the governor's race could still be a factor.
Obama helps Quinn: 50 percent. Might not want to campaign with the president in Latino districs.
Patrick Daley Thompson is the next 11th Ward alderman: 99 percent. More groundwork laid already than Fioretti or Lewis mayoral runs.
The city council is ready for reform: 14%. At best.
Dick Durbin is re-elected: 99 percent. Even if Oberweis makes a race of it (doubtful, despite what ridiculous polls say), he'll self-destruct in no time.
Bill Foster wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.
Brad Schneider wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. Swing district done swinging.
Rodney Davis wins re-election to Congress: 55 percent. See Foster, Schneider.
Lisa Madigan is re-elected state attorney general: 99 percent. Won't even need daddy's help to beat sacrificial Republican, despite what bullshit polls say.
Anita Alvarez is re-elected: 90 percent. You can't beat an incompetent with nobody - especially in Crook County.
Ed Burke is indicted: 5 percent. Talk about buffers.
Michael Madigan is indicted: 2 percent. Maybe the Metra mess leads somewhere.
Richard M. Daley is indicted: 1 percent. The Great White Whale who got away.
Patrick Daley is indicted: 50 percent. Now we're talking.
Mark Kirk wins re-election: 25 percent. Down another five ticks on the general impression that he's lost his mind; seat is there for the taking if Dems don't clown themselves out of it.
Barack Obama is impeached: 1 percent. As a war criminal presiding over an out-of-control security state, he certainly deserves it; we don't live in that kind of country yet, though.
Barack Obama wins a third term: 50 percent. Constitution seems to be under suspension, so who knows.
Obama library goes anywhere other than U of C: 0 percent. Maybe branches elsewhere, but Axelrod's Institute is paving the path. Plus, Obama's an elitist.
Over/Under on when Barbara Byrd-Bennett has had enough: June 2015. She wants out now, but has to coordinate departure with McCarthy.
Next alderman likely to be indicted, three-way parlay, choose from the following, in descending probability: Howard Brookins, Jason Ervin, Patrick O'Connor, Deborah Graham, Anthony Beale, George Cardenas, Danny Solis, Walter Burnett, Carrie Austin, Emma Mitts.
Daley brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability, parlays available: John, Michael, Richard, Bill.
Emanuel brother most likely to be indicted in descending probability: Ari, Rahm, Ezekiel.
Next city/county officeholder likely to be indicted in descending order: Dorothy Brown, Karen Yarbrough, Joe Berrios, Stanley Moore, Maria Pappas.
Posted on September 13, 2014
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