The [Monday] Papers
I usually don't watch the Grammys, but I happened upon it in the early-going and . . . was that Morris Day and The Time doing "Jungle Love"? It was, complete with the valet-with-the-mirror bit and all.
Um, what time is it? Because I thought we were somewhere in 2008.
I mean, I love Morris Day and the Time, but c'mon!
And then I saw Prince handing out an award - you're better than that! - and thought, maybe it was part of his deal that he got to bring his buddies along.
* I don't know, if I was Amy Winehouse I might have refused to descend into self-parody and sing the otherwise-fine but overexposed "Rehab."
* "Foo Fighters turned into a mediocre progressive-rock band when they decided to gussy up their set with an orchestra," Greg Kot writes in the Tribune.
"The mix of three-chord hamburger and string-laden syrup was as unappetizing as it sounds."
* Jim DeRogatis called the Foo Fighters "bloated and bombastic."
* DeRo's beginning . . .
"The Grammys celebrated their golden anniversary as America's most prestigious music awards Sunday night, and as is often the case with the live telecast from the Staples Center in Los Angeles, the show seemed to drag on for at least 50 hours."
"But then again, for the 50th year in a row, nominees and viewers at home alike all deserved better than the Grammys gave them."
The Grammys are to music what daily newspapers are to journalism.
Elsewhere in the paper, though, Laura Washington argues that "Obama's mantra of change came through loud and clear in local races," though her evidence is awfully thin; Washington points to a statehouse race featuring an Obama protege who won with 33 percent of the vote against four other candidates, and the Democratic primary victory of Anita Alvarez in the Cook County state's attorney's race.
Alvarez, however, was not a "change" candidate; she was labeled along with the other career prosecutor in the race as "Status" and "Quo."
The "change" candidates in that race were Ald. Howard Brookins Jr., whom Washington notes was an early favorite based on the notion that he "would slide in on a massive Obama turnout in Chicago's black wards" (and who was endorsed by Jesse Jackson), and reformer Larry Suffredin (who was endorsed by Jesse Jackson, Jr.).
In fact, as Abdon Pallasch reports today in "How Did Hillary Win Key City Wards?", mayoral brother John Daley attributes Alvarez's victory in his 11th Ward, where Obama was on the palm cards, to Hillary Clinton's coattails. Clinton won the ward.
The lakefront wards that went for Obama, Pallasch found, also went for Suffredin, while the African-American wards that went for Obama went for Brookins. Maybe Obama's coattails actually split the "change" vote locally.
The only problem is that the Bradley Effect doesn't exist.
"If the idea that voters lie to pollsters is unfounded or at least exaggerated, what happened in Tom Bradley's gubernatorial race in California in 1982?," Tom Rosenstiel wrote in 1989 when he went back and examined the contest.
"Several polls, including The Los Angeles Times Poll, showed Bradley winning handily. With a week to go, Field's California Poll showed Bradley ahead by seven points.
"One problem, which cropped up again Tuesday, was that pollsters overestimated minority turnout.
"Field and others expected it to be about average, 20 percent. But since Bradley chose to run as a mainstream candidate, not mobilizing his base, minority turnout was only 15 percent.
"Another factor was the failure to measure undecideds.
"And when exit polls failed to predict [Republican] George Deukmejian's victory over Bradley, that was partly because pollsters had not anticipated that relaxed restrictions on absentee voting would cause a rise in that segment of the vote, and that it would go 80 percent Republican."
(This article in The Public Opinion Quarterly found that "Bradley's background did not stimulate an unusual level of racially motivated behavior.")
Besides, it doesn't make sense that a Bradley Effect would exist in a Democratic primary. In a Harold Washington-Bernard Epton race, sure. But would Hillary Clinton voters really fake support over the phone for Obama out of fear of appearing racist?
It has served the Obama campaign to retail this stuff to pundits, however, just as they did after New Hampshire with an eye to South Carolina. And we saw what happened there.
World Class Sex
The Beachwood Tip Line: Capture the flag.
Posted on February 11, 2008
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