The [Monday] Papers
3. "Addiction doesn't play favorites," Jocelyn Geboy writes on her An Unquiet Chicagoan blog.
"It's not the disease of poor people or homeless people or a particular ethnicity. It doesn't care for a particular gender or socioeconomic class or upbringing. There are statistics that show there are reasons that it might come up more in certain areas, but there is no one that is immune. Education and money won't help you. In fact, you often can be too smart for your own good when it comes to recovering. The mind is the thing that is your own worst enemy, and the spinning wheel of shitmaking will lead you back to a drink or a drug faster than anything else."
Actually, it's this article that doesn't add up.
"Quinn said Illinois has added 280,000 private-sector jobs since recovery began - officially that was in January 2010 for Illinois - and that statewide unemployment is at its lowest level in almost five years."
The AP says those claims are true.
"In fact, since last May, Illinois has led the Midwest in new jobs created," the governor said.
My first quibble here would be Quinn using May as the benchmark, which obviously means that going back any further would invalidate his claim. Just because the state may have had more activity in the last eight months - but not the last year - doesn't necessarily mean much. And what about the whole of Quinn's time in office?
"According to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, a net 276,800 private-sector jobs have been added in Illinois since January 2010. That's a 5.6 percent increase.
"In that time, many Midwestern states have done better. Wisconsin's private-sector job base has grown by 5.7 percent, Indiana's by 8.8 percent, Michigan's by 9.2 percent and North Dakota's - driven by the state's petroleum boom - leads the way at 30.2 percent."
"In terms of the raw number of nonfarm jobs added since May 2010, Quinn is right. No Midwestern state has added more, according to the BLS. But Illinois has the largest population in the region and probably should generate more jobs."
Statistics about states and cities should almost always be rendered per capita (especially in crime reporting that has, for example, made Chicago the nation's murder capital when it's been nothing of the sort.)
"Quinn spokeswoman Brooke Anderson said the governor never intended to portray Illinois' recovery as complete."
That wasn't the question, though. Did he intend to portray Illinois' "recovery" truthfully? And if so, will he issue a correction - and do a better job next time?
"Quinn also points to a real-world example of job creation during his term. He said Chrysler has added significantly to its workforce at its Belvidere plant, bringing employment there to more than 4,700.
"The automaker has added thousands of workers at the northern Illinois plant, but perhaps not quite to the degree cited by Quinn. A Chrysler website page on the Belvidere plant, updated in January, puts the workforce at 4,490."
On this point, I'm inclined to say "whatever."
But . . .
"Anderson said the governor used figures Chrysler provided to the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity. Chrysler didn't respond to queries from The Associated Press."
Now I'm inclined to guess that it's below 4,490. Perhaps the state should check in with Chrysler itself.
But here's perhaps an even more interesting part of AP's report.
"[Bruce] Rauner, the one GOP Quinn challenger who doesn't already hold office, used data from the U.S. Census Bureau to fire off his own numbers at Quinn Wednesday. Here are the figures Rauner highlights, and how they hold up to scrutiny:
"The number of people unemployed, Rauner says, is up by more than 35,000 since Quinn became governor. The BLS says the number is 36,892."
So Rauner is right; that's more than 35,000.
"Rauner says almost 95,000 fewer people are employed now than when Quinn took office. The BLS figure is 93,137."
So Rauner is right; that's almost 95,000.
"Rauner says household income has dropped by $1,132, or 2.1 percent, during Quinn's stay in office - from $52,870 in 2009 to $51,738 in 2012. But the Census Bureau says the picture is actually worse. A different set of data that the bureau recommends using, because it is drawn from a much larger survey, found household income in Illinois dropped 4.8 percent, from $57,927 to $55,137."
So Rauner is wrong - it's even worse than he says!
Now let's go back to the headline and premise of the article: "Not All Quinn, GOP Job Claims Add Up."
Actually, Quinn's claims don't add up while Rauner's claims do. No other claims from the GOP are tested.
5. The "recovery."
"Another Illinois nonprofit is making some tough decisions to stay afloat in the state's dismal economic climate.
"Children's Home + Aid, an agency that operates dozens of child and family service programs in 70 counties, announced last week that the Children's Room in the McLean County Law and Justice Center in Bloomington once again will have to significantly scale back its hours of operation."
7. "New spoilers for the Supernatural spin-off show, called Supernatural: Tribes, are here! Find out who the main characters for Supernatural: Tribes will be, and learn more about the spin-off show based in Chicago.
"The main characters' descriptions reveals some spoilers for the spin-off: there will be an 'epic battle involving five rival monster families and a vengeance-seeking hunter,' TVLine reports."
Yes, the Daleys, the Madigans, the Burkes, the Mells, the Outfit and Rahm Emanuel.
Featuring: Conspirator, Emancipator Ensemble, Hood Smoke, Famous Last Words, Sacred Monster, Savoy, and Iron & Wine.
We are in the midst of the greatest cluster of talent to ever come out of this city.
The Beachwood Tip Line: Out from the shadows.
Posted on February 3, 2014
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